ATL: IAN - Models

[Kohlecane]

I just don't buy that rapid decrease in MB/intensification on the GFS, 00Z Euro has it getting into southern GA as a minor Cat 1/high end TS and that's with 200 miles north tracking through FL Peninsula.

[aspen]

The hurricane models have been trending weaker in the WCar because Ian spends more time trying to put itself together each run, and even when there is an eyewall, intensification is rather slow. Ian only gets down to the low 970s by the time it makes landfall in Cuba on Tuesday morning on the 06z HMON.

[gatorcane]

The GFS into the eastern panhandle, Big Bend:

[Ivanhater]

06Z Hwrf shifting west as well

[Ivanhater]

Keep in mind, Recon has fixed a center more than a full degree South of initialization

[NDG]

Don't throw out the 0z Euro's forecast track run out the window, it picked up nicely the reformation further south and west this morning.

[Iceresistance]

Just adjusting to the center relocation

Do center reformations ever show up on modeling?

Yes, but it does not happen very often.

[Jevo]

Looks like the early models initiated a degree north of the recon plot. Not sure if it will have an impact, just something to note

[Ivanhater]

06Z Hwrf is almost a full 2 degrees further West at 111 hrs.

[NDG]

Looks like the early models initiated a degree north of the recon plot. Not sure if it will have an impact, just something to note

0z & 06z Euro did a nice job of forecasting the SW jog or reformation further south & west this morning, is spot on so I am not throwing it out the window.

[Ivanhater]

06Z Hwrf




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[ronjon]

Waking up to more model inconsistency! There does appear to be a westward trend so far. Nervously awaiting each new suite on the west coast of Florida.

[gatorcane]

06Z Euro with another west shift through 72 hours.

[CDO62]

6z HMON. Levy County.

[pgoss11]

6z HMON. Levy County.

https://i.imgur.com/I6Z8Ylg.jpg

06z HMON doesn’t seem to be as affected by the sheer.

[NDG]

06z Euro stronger and about 15-20 miles west of its 0z run track through 90 hours at the end of its run. It also did a nice job of reformation or jog further S & W this morning.

[tolakram]

HWRF

[Ivanhater]

Big shift North and West on TVCN...Nhc cone will likely be adjusted more the the north and west toward big bend

12Z



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[kevin]

Based purely on a gut instinct I feel like the windshield wiping has reached its peak now and we'll see slight east shifts in the next model runs. This is partially based on the fact that the Euro showed the SW center relocation and still went quite far east with respect to the other models. If so a Tampa landfall sounds like a possible scenario. But in its short life so far Ian has been one of the most difficult storms to track this season so there's still a lot of uncertainty.

[mantis83]

south florida force field holding strong.....