ATL: IAN - Models

[tolakram]

I put this in the discussion thread but it's hard core model reading. Great stuff, as usual.



Link: https://youtu.be/Ji0PM8gIqYI

[Stormcenter]

Aren’t some of these model runs useless if they don’t initialize the center correctly to begin with?

I very skeptical of these runs but hey who am I
to question the experts.

[eastcoastFL]

Aren’t some of these model runs useless if they don’t initialize the center correctly to begin with?

I very skeptical of these runs but hey who am I
to question the experts.

I don’t know if they’re useless but they’re surely not as accurate as they could be with the wrong data. Expect these models to change when they get the correct data tonight.

[jlauderdal]

Appears to be a fairly significant east shift on the 18z CMC compared to 12z

The cmc and gfs have been moving all around the gulf for a few days

[robbielyn]

Interesting 18Z GEFS, look at the cluster that turns NE towards FL peninsula like the ECMWF track:

Those are the ensembles that move Ian faster so it can make a connection with the trough.

https://i.postimg.cc/nr6QsTsf/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh36-102.gif

yeah but the bigger blob in yucatán channel are more members slowing it down headed west. check out Levi’s video he talks about the ensembles just came out.

[toad strangler]

I put this in the discussion thread but it's hard core model reading. Great stuff, as usual.

https://youtu.be/Ji0PM8gIqYI

The brightest young mind in tropical meteorology IMO.

[PTrackerLA]

18z GEFS

[aspen]

18z HWRF is even more aggressive than last run up to 48 hours, but this time might be too aggressive. It has an eyewall forming around tomorrow morning, which may or may not happen based on microwave imagery. Hammy pointed out that it seems Ian is missing inflow in the W and S sides of the circulation. If this is the case, we probably won’t see much intensification until Ian’s circulation improves.

[ronjon]

Looks like LA and Miss could be in play if Ian misses the trough down the road with the GFS ensembles. Levi alluded to this in his video. Lots of moving parts to this forecast.

[eastcoastFL]

[PTrackerLA]

18z HWRF 4 run trend, valid 18z Tuesday.

[StAuggy]

I put this in the discussion thread but it's hard core model reading. Great stuff, as usual.

https://youtu.be/Ji0PM8gIqYI

The brightest young mind in tropical meteorology IMO.

He’s such a g! He does an amazing job walking/talking through the different scenarios every time that are technical but also easy to understand

[robbielyn]

18z GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/TsYYjjL.gif

looks like the most are in panama city points west.

[NDG]

18z GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/TsYYjjL.gif

They clearly show that forward speed will matter, the faster moving ensemble members were pulled towards the FL Peninsula before the trough lifts up.

[NDG]

18z UKMET which only goes to 60 hrs is a good 50-60 miles NE from the position at the same time from its 12z run.

[StPeteMike]

18z UKMET which only goes to 60 hrs is a good 50-60 miles NE from the position at the same time from its 12z run.

https://i.imgur.com/Jn4At7G.png

Which likely means a more NE track across Florida into the Atlantic or SE Georgia.

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/TsYYjjL.gif

They clearly show that forward speed will matter, the faster moving ensemble members were pulled towards the FL Peninsula before the trough lifts up.

Was it confirmed the COC formed farther W? Maybe allowing E adjustments to the 18z models?

[Abdullah]

18Z HWRF landfall same location as 12Z

[Bocadude85]

18z EC-fast is a decent shift NE from the 12Z

[gatorcane]

EC-fast is a decent shift NE from the 12Z

Yep it just won’t let peninsula Florida off the hook. It is faster so it is able to make a connection with the deep-layer trough digging over the Eastern CONUS: