ATL: IAN - Models

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WilmingtonSandbar
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3421 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:43 pm

underthwx wrote:Do the models show anything to get Ian moving along faster, and making a quicker passage through Florida, and other areas in the forecast path?(my niece lives in Jacksonville, I'm concerned about her safety as well as everyone)


Compared to the models of previous days, this is moving a lot quicker. Earlier model runs had it stalling over mid-Florida for 24-48 hours.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3422 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:17 pm

0Z UKMET: slightly west of 12Z near Georgetown, SC

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 81.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2022 0 27.1N 81.8W 973 49
1200UTC 29.09.2022 12 28.2N 80.7W 989 46
0000UTC 30.09.2022 24 29.6N 79.7W 984 55
1200UTC 30.09.2022 36 31.4N 79.2W 978 55
0000UTC 01.10.2022 48 34.3N 79.5W 987 37
1200UTC 01.10.2022 60 35.7N 80.0W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3423 Postby MrJames » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:47 pm

00z UKMET

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3424 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:19 am

6Z models

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3425 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:26 am



Mark, could you help me some? I am confused. I recognized that all 3 models are in consensus of roughly a Charleston landfall, but could you point out the steering feature that is making this convincing turn into Charleston?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3426 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:31 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:


Mark, could you help me some? I am confused. I recognized that all 3 models are in consensus of roughly a Charleston landfall, but could you point out the steering feature that is making this convincing turn into Charleston?


No, I can't, it appears to be interaction with something but it's over my skill level.

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3427 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:39 am

tolakram wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:


Mark, could you help me some? I am confused. I recognized that all 3 models are in consensus of roughly a Charleston landfall, but could you point out the steering feature that is making this convincing turn into Charleston?


No, I can't, it appears to be interaction with something but it's over my skill level.

https://i.imgur.com/D3HaxcV.gif


If it's over yours, it definitely is way past mine. But, that's why I ask questions, to try to increase my skill levels. I seem to remember it mentioned a couple days ago, that there was a high that was supposed to drop south and east of Ian, and that would push it west, but I haven't been able to find that high in any of the model runs lately.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3428 Postby Ronel2020 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:42 am

tolakram wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:


Mark, could you help me some? I am confused. I recognized that all 3 models are in consensus of roughly a Charleston landfall, but could you point out the steering feature that is making this convincing turn into Charleston?


No, I can't, it appears to be interaction with something but it's over my skill level.

https://i.imgur.com/D3HaxcV.gif


The NHC discussion from 5 AM discusses this:


Ian's center continues to move northeastward across central Florida,
and nearly all of the heavy rains are located to the north over
northeastern Florida. NWS WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the
Melbourne and Tampa radars have decreased significantly since last
evening, and based on that data, Ian is now a tropical storm with
maximum sustained winds of 55 kt. This intensity is also supported
by wind observations across Florida, with the highest recent
sustained wind being 52 kt at New Smyrna Beach.

Ian's current motion is northeastward, or 040/7 kt. The tail end
of a deep-layer trough is expected to detach from the main trough
axis over the southeastern United States during the next 24 to 48
hours, and Ian is forecast to move around the eastern periphery of
this feature, turning north-northeastward later today and then
north-northwestward by Friday night. In this scenario, Ian should
move off the east coast of Florida later today, and then swing
northward toward the South Carolina coast during the next 36 hours
or so. Although there is some cross-track spread in the guidance,
they all agree on this general scenario, and the NHC track forecast
lies where most of the models are packed. No significant changes
were made to the previous prediction.

Little change in intensity is forecast during the next 24 hours or
so, mainly due to strong southwesterly shear. After 24 hours,
global models are suggesting that Ian could have some favorable
interaction with the eastern U.S. trough, all while it's moving
over the warm 28-29 degree Celsius waters of the Gulf Stream. As a
result, some slight strengthening is indicated in the official
forecast by 36 hours, and Ian could be near hurricane intensity as
it's approaching the coast of South Carolina. This possibility is
accounted for by the Hurricane Watch that is effect for the area.
After moving inland, Ian is expected to weaken quickly, and global
models indicate it should dissipate or become absorbed by another
broader area of low pressure over the Carolinas by day 3.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3429 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:43 am

See, just what I said, interaction with something. :lol:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3430 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:39 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:


Mark, could you help me some? I am confused. I recognized that all 3 models are in consensus of roughly a Charleston landfall, but could you point out the steering feature that is making this convincing turn into Charleston?

FYI, consensus can be wrong and often is this far out, if you are in the cone, prepare for a cat2, don't make the same mistake that some peeps in SWFL did. If you aren't in the cone, prepare for impacts and since NHC doesn't put an impact cone out you will have to use your resources to figure out the impacts, I would start with your local weather service office forecasts.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3431 Postby Vdogg » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:57 am

Ronel2020 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
Mark, could you help me some? I am confused. I recognized that all 3 models are in consensus of roughly a Charleston landfall, but could you point out the steering feature that is making this convincing turn into Charleston?


No, I can't, it appears to be interaction with something but it's over my skill level.

https://i.imgur.com/D3HaxcV.gif


The NHC discussion from 5 AM discusses this:


Ian's center continues to move northeastward across central Florida,
and nearly all of the heavy rains are located to the north over
northeastern Florida. NWS WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the
Melbourne and Tampa radars have decreased significantly since last
evening, and based on that data, Ian is now a tropical storm with
maximum sustained winds of 55 kt. This intensity is also supported
by wind observations across Florida, with the highest recent
sustained wind being 52 kt at New Smyrna Beach.

Ian's current motion is northeastward, or 040/7 kt. The tail end
of a deep-layer trough is expected to detach from the main trough
axis over the southeastern United States during the next 24 to 48
hours, and Ian is forecast to move around the eastern periphery of
this feature, turning north-northeastward later today and then
north-northwestward by Friday night. In this scenario, Ian should
move off the east coast of Florida later today, and then swing
northward toward the South Carolina coast during the next 36 hours
or so. Although there is some cross-track spread in the guidance,
they all agree on this general scenario, and the NHC track forecast
lies where most of the models are packed. No significant changes
were made to the previous prediction.

Little change in intensity is forecast during the next 24 hours or
so, mainly due to strong southwesterly shear. After 24 hours,
global models are suggesting that Ian could have some favorable
interaction with the eastern U.S. trough, all while it's moving
over the warm 28-29 degree Celsius waters of the Gulf Stream. As a
result, some slight strengthening is indicated in the official
forecast by 36 hours, and Ian could be near hurricane intensity as
it's approaching the coast of South Carolina. This possibility is
accounted for by the Hurricane Watch that is effect for the area.
After moving inland, Ian is expected to weaken quickly, and global
models indicate it should dissipate or become absorbed by another
broader area of low pressure over the Carolinas by day 3.

Which begs the question, what happens if the trough doesn’t detach within the timeframe that they expect it to?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3432 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:02 am

6Z HWRF
Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3433 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:28 am

jlauderdal wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:


Mark, could you help me some? I am confused. I recognized that all 3 models are in consensus of roughly a Charleston landfall, but could you point out the steering feature that is making this convincing turn into Charleston?

FYI, consensus can be wrong and often is this far out, if you are in the cone, prepare for a cat2, don't make the same mistake that some peeps in SWFL did. If you aren't in the cone, prepare for impacts and since NHC doesn't put an impact cone out you will have to use your resources to figure out the impacts, I would start with your local weather service office forecasts.


I'm in Brunswick County NC(that's the south facing tip of NC, just at the SC/NC border), and about 10 miles from the beach. We aren't currently in the cone, but everything keeps trending north, including the NHC extending the Hurricane warning to the county line. I am expecting the windfield to get into us later this afternoon/evening because it is so big, and I am not taking my eyes off of this storm.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3434 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:02 am

12Z GFS
Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3435 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:02 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3436 Postby Vdogg » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:21 am

tolakram wrote:12Z GFS
https://i.imgur.com/XnoJoPU.gif

Big jog east on 12z, right at SC/NC border. If it hits that close we’ll definitely be in some tropical storm winds in Va. Beach an OBX.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3437 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:37 am

Cross posting this from the discussion forum. If you have model questions you need to watch every video Levi makes as he does a fantastic job.



Link: https://youtu.be/xlw1-m2_bzA
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3438 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:42 am

Okay yeah GFS and CMC did shift pretty east. Triangle Metro areas could see some Cat.1 hurricane effects.

Whether they'll see sustained Cat.1 winds depends on how strong Ian gets within the next 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3439 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:46 am

tolakram wrote:See, just what I said, interaction with something. :lol:



Nailed It!!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3440 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:54 am

Gah! Not liking the E shift on the GFS. Also not liking the hybrid storm strengthening. HWRF running so interested t0 see what it will show. Guess I gotta go back outside and do more prep for higher winds.
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