ATL: IAN - Models

[Blown Away]

18z GFS had Ian moving above 15N in 24 hours. Ian is there now, curious to see if that effects the 00z outcome.

[Frank P]

Anybody have the 18Z Euro ensembles?

https://i.ibb.co/m6T0nZK/AL09.gif

What’s interesting to me as many of the 18z euro ensemble members start to bend back to the northwest as the approach the panhandle, if the front was strong they would be bending back to the northeast, or even ene.

[blp]

Thanks yeah the EPS really is similar to the 12Z so hasn’t moved much.

It ends up in same place but crosses Cuba a little further East and faster. Anymore east adjustments would bring landfall below Tampa.

[caneman]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wTsGqCbN/0-A6499-DE-FF80-425-C-A55-C-8-BF23-F6-F51-DF.jpg [/url]

18z GFS had Ian moving above 15N in 24 hours. Ian is there now, curious to see if that effects the 00z outcome.

It absolutely should. Tells me the GFS is and has been way off. I'm always always about model blend but I really don't know what the he!! GFS is doing with this system.

[StPeteMike]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wTsGqCbN/0-A6499-DE-FF80-425-C-A55-C-8-BF23-F6-F51-DF.jpg [/url]

18z GFS had Ian moving above 15N in 24 hours. Ian is there now, curious to see if that effects the 00z outcome.

It absolutely should. Tells me the GFS is and has been way off. I'm always always about model blend but I really don't know what the he!! GFS is doing with this system.

GFS always struggles more when the system is still weak-ish. It’s not perfect when the storm is a major hurricane, but anything that still is struggling to focus on one center and filter all the other ones out to die really gives the GFS a headache and it starts panicking and throwing tracks towards Mobile at 12z to tracks to Naples at 00z!

[Jr0d]

I just don't believe the NHC has a good hold on where Ian is going and probably won't for another few days. Way too many things
that can change to affect the final track and the models obviously are the same way now.

A few days might be a bit late for preps

Here in Key West the city abd county decided against evacuating tourist based on the west shift in the models this morning.

If the faster E shift trend continues over night, they will have issue the tourist evacuations effect immediate.

Only one road out, so not much room for error. Obviously they dont want to cry wolf and build complacency, but we do not want a traffic jam while a major storm is approaching

[floridasun]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/cChBDcDd/ecmwf-uv10-watl-trend.gif [/url]
18z ECMWF… Trend, NE and faster.

ty for close up

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wTsGqCbN/0-A6499-DE-FF80-425-C-A55-C-8-BF23-F6-F51-DF.jpg [/url]

18z GFS had Ian moving above 15N in 24 hours. Ian is there now, curious to see if that effects the 00z outcome.

GFS is latching onto the wrong center, resulting in a more southern path IMHO.

[PandaCitrus]

The 18z Euro Ensemble Mean is a worst case surge scenario that would lay waste to low lying areas of Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, Citrus, and Levy counties. It could be Katrina like surge destruction if it hit as a Cat 4+. A lot of SLOSH maps have 20 feet of surge potential in a Cat 4+

Anybody have the 18Z Euro ensembles?

https://i.ibb.co/m6T0nZK/AL09.gif

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/whitleyweather/status/1573788884445560832

[StPeteMike]

The 18z Euro Ensemble Mean is a worst case surge scenario that would lay waste to low lying areas of Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, Citrus, and Levy counties. It could be Katrina like surge destruction if it hit as a Cat 4+. A lot of SLOSH maps have 20 feet of surge potential in a Cat 4+

Anybody have the 18Z Euro ensembles?

https://i.ibb.co/m6T0nZK/AL09.gif

It’s almost 24 hours of an onshore flow with that track.

[skillz305]

https://twitter.com/whitleyweather/status/1573788884445560832?s=46&t=Wgbuw5pW0Gwe2m3tadFx4A

Windshield wipers in full effect

[floridasun]

with stift to right you think cone cover south fl again down in miami dade or wait over night to see more stift to east over night

[SFLcane]

[StAuggy]

The 18z Euro Ensemble Mean is a worst case surge scenario that would lay waste to low lying areas of Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, Citrus, and Levy counties. It could be Katrina like surge destruction if it hit as a Cat 4+. A lot of SLOSH maps have 20 feet of surge potential in a Cat 4+

Anybody have the 18Z Euro ensembles?

Katrina’s wind field size after it’s EWRC and large size overall led to that catastrophic surge and flooding. This needs consideration when making that comparison

https://i.ibb.co/m6T0nZK/AL09.gif

[skyline385]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wTsGqCbN/0-A6499-DE-FF80-425-C-A55-C-8-BF23-F6-F51-DF.jpg [/url]

18z GFS had Ian moving above 15N in 24 hours. Ian is there now, curious to see if that effects the 00z outcome.

GFS is latching onto the wrong center, resulting in a more southern path IMHO.

Both GFS and Euro were off when initializing but both latch off to the same southern center (12 hours into their runs). However, what's important is that Ian is currently north of all models.

[Laser30033003]

I feel like I trust the Euro more then the GSF...going to be interesting to see which is closer to the point of landfall....

[PTrackerLA]

00z GFS should be telling given the NOAA Gulfstream jet data and balloon launches around the USA. I wouldn't trust anything the ICON does btw. Followed it very closely in 20/21 with all of our hurricane threats in Louisiana and it's a worse hurricane model than the Canadian...

[Stormgodess]

Anyone have info on possible steering features for this thing later next week?? What you watch for? If it continues to wobble so much does this extend landfall further that other steering features may come into play?

[Hurricane Mike]

Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane.