ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2401 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:27 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2402 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:28 pm

Blown Away wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.

The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.


If Ian moves a little R of the track then potentially points S of Tampa and timeframe even sooner.


Fort Myers has to be like :eek: right now
That's how crazy this angle in is.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2403 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.

The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.


The NHC is pretty calculated, but that decision to activate emergency resources is ultimately up to those local governments. Usually, most plans call for a T-72 time-frame for a safe and efficient rollout. It's definitely getting to be time.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2404 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:30 pm



What model is this from? Not the latest Euro.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2405 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:32 pm

They're going to have to think about evac orders for the Tampa Bay region soon. You're talking probably close to 2 million plus people that need to be moved out within 48 hrs of tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2406 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:32 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.

The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.


If Ian moves a little R of the track then potentially points S of Tampa and timeframe even sooner.


Fort Myers has to be like :eek: right now
That's how crazy this angle in is.


A decision has to be made soon is the euro right or the gfs? The ecmwf and the ukmet are both out of the nhc cone.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2407 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:33 pm

tolakram wrote:


What model is this from? Not the latest Euro.


Yes it is.

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1574101160486895617


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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2408 Postby chaser1 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:34 pm

My best guess would be Tropical Storm Watches to be hoisted for the Lower Keys and S.W. Florida coast with the 11:00 a.m. package tomorrow morning. If Ian strengthens overnight and track has begun a northwest motion, then I'd guess Hurricane Watches for Sarasota to Tampa/St. Pete area by 5:00pm tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2409 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:36 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2410 Postby ObsessedMiami » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.

The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.

This was essentially my point earlier. I’m sorry if it seemed critical to NHC, it wasn’t meant to be. Just that some decisions have to be made and soon
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2411 Postby jhpigott » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:37 pm

The problem with this angle of approach to the FL peninsula is that a relatively small 10-20 mile shift east or west has a much larger (in terms of mileage) impact on landfall point
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2412 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:41 pm

There's gotta be a decision made as to whether the GFS or Euro will be more accurate soon. If the Euro is more accurate, Tampa is in serious danger.

:double:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2413 Postby sponger » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:44 pm

jhpigott wrote:The problem with this angle of approach to the FL peninsula is that a relatively small 10-20 mile shift east or west has a much larger (in terms of mileage) impact on landfall point


Yep, so Charley esq in track, but thank goodness not the same atmospheric setup! Lets hope the shear forecast holds. All hell would be breaking lose if this was a Cat 4 South of Cuba!

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/ian-f ... ne-charley
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2414 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:45 pm

RevanTheJedi96 wrote:There's gotta be a decision made as to whether the GFS or Euro will be more accurate soon. If the Euro is more accurate, Tampa is in serious danger.

:double:


It's really too early.

The storm isnt even deepening or turning ywt.

Assuming the euro is right....its not even hitting its current projected plots below cuba...none of the models are.

You dont evacuate millions on such flimsy data
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2415 Postby Poonwalker » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:50 pm

So euro has a cat 3 approach with a cat 2 hit. Tampa will have to prepare for a cat 3 flood event if that’s the case. This is looking really bad unless is cuts south or the GFS solution materializes. :(
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2416 Postby SapphireSea » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:51 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
RevanTheJedi96 wrote:There's gotta be a decision made as to whether the GFS or Euro will be more accurate soon. If the Euro is more accurate, Tampa is in serious danger.

:double:


It's really too early.

The storm isnt even deepening or turning ywt

You dont evacuate millions on such flimsy data


The Tampa area is within the cone at 4 days out. I think that would constitute keep a close eye and if you live there; Buy some materials to prepare. Once a watch is placed (probably late tomorrow), and depending on guidance is there more decisions made from there. Still pretty premature. Not sure what kind of decisions would be needed at this exact point, and any decisions from Warning-onwards would be more urgent and warranted. If the public is spurred into a panic before there is a real handle, or even a real risk, then there would be increased complacency moving on. And that would benefit no one.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2417 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:55 pm

If this storm does manage to make it to Tampa, the landfall category isn’t going to matter much. The main event would be the surge, which will be more determined by its size and strength in the 24 hours or so leading up to landfall. If it peaks at 115kt in the gulf the way the nhc says, the difference in surge between a cat4 or cat 1 at landfall is going to be pretty negligible
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2418 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:57 pm

SapphireSea wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
RevanTheJedi96 wrote:There's gotta be a decision made as to whether the GFS or Euro will be more accurate soon. If the Euro is more accurate, Tampa is in serious danger.

:double:


It's really too early.

The storm isnt even deepening or turning ywt

You dont evacuate millions on such flimsy data


The Tampa area is within the cone at 4 days out. I think that would constitute keep a close eye and if you live there; Buy some materials to prepare. Once a watch is placed (probably late tomorrow), and depending on guidance is there more decisions made from there. Still pretty premature. Not sure what kind of decisions would be needed at this exact point, and any decisions from Warning-onwards would be more urgent and warranted. If the public is spurred into a panic before there is a real handle, or even a real risk, then there would be increased complacency moving on. And that would benefit no one.



Bingo

Thank you.

Tampa / saint Pete/ sarasota Is a big area.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2419 Postby chaser1 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:01 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.

The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.

This was essentially my point earlier. I’m sorry if it seemed critical to NHC, it wasn’t meant to be. Just that some decisions have to be made and soon


No doubt the NHC is keenly aware of that. My mom lives off Kendall Drive as well and she is well aware of the broad risk involved. At this point she already has in place the standard supplies need along with contingency plans in place with nearby friends/neighbors. At the moment there is no imminent threat to Miami-Dade and Broward counties, but circumstances can certainly change. Should that occur, a 10-hour plan is already in place for my mom's house to be shuttered and for her to be with me here in Central Florida. My 3-step plan? Step One - calm & careful planning (provisions, emergency supplies, plan a bug-out bag, communication, planned & alternate routes required timing for evac). Step two - calm and careful plan implementation. Step three - kick back, have a beer and some beef jerky, and enjoy the weather
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2420 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:02 pm

18Z consensus (TVCN) shifts east and almost now to west coast of Florida:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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