ATL: IAN - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9594
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
2 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4161
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Blown Away wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.
The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.
If Ian moves a little R of the track then potentially points S of Tampa and timeframe even sooner.
Fort Myers has to be like right now
That's how crazy this angle in is.
1 likes
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
CrazyC83 wrote:Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.
The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.
The NHC is pretty calculated, but that decision to activate emergency resources is ultimately up to those local governments. Usually, most plans call for a T-72 time-frame for a safe and efficient rollout. It's definitely getting to be time.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19138
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
What model is this from? Not the latest Euro.
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
They're going to have to think about evac orders for the Tampa Bay region soon. You're talking probably close to 2 million plus people that need to be moved out within 48 hrs of tomorrow morning.
2 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9594
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
toad strangler wrote:Blown Away wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.
The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.
If Ian moves a little R of the track then potentially points S of Tampa and timeframe even sooner.
Fort Myers has to be like right now
That's how crazy this angle in is.
A decision has to be made soon is the euro right or the gfs? The ecmwf and the ukmet are both out of the nhc cone.
1 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9594
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
tolakram wrote:
What model is this from? Not the latest Euro.
Yes it is.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1574101160486895617
2 likes
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
My best guess would be Tropical Storm Watches to be hoisted for the Lower Keys and S.W. Florida coast with the 11:00 a.m. package tomorrow morning. If Ian strengthens overnight and track has begun a northwest motion, then I'd guess Hurricane Watches for Sarasota to Tampa/St. Pete area by 5:00pm tomorrow.
3 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19138
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
SFLcane wrote:tolakram wrote:
What model is this from? Not the latest Euro.
Yes it is.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1574101160486895617?s=21&t=XVTO6jr6qSEKRmHiph09vg
There is no sharp right turn on this plot of the 12Z Euro. -> https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2022092512/848-w-267-n/sea-level-pressure/20220928-1800z.html
3 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- ObsessedMiami
- Category 1
- Posts: 413
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:08 pm
- Location: West Kendall, Fl
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
CrazyC83 wrote:Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.
The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.
This was essentially my point earlier. I’m sorry if it seemed critical to NHC, it wasn’t meant to be. Just that some decisions have to be made and soon
3 likes
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
The problem with this angle of approach to the FL peninsula is that a relatively small 10-20 mile shift east or west has a much larger (in terms of mileage) impact on landfall point
4 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 106
- Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:40 am
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
There's gotta be a decision made as to whether the GFS or Euro will be more accurate soon. If the Euro is more accurate, Tampa is in serious danger.
3 likes
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
jhpigott wrote:The problem with this angle of approach to the FL peninsula is that a relatively small 10-20 mile shift east or west has a much larger (in terms of mileage) impact on landfall point
Yep, so Charley esq in track, but thank goodness not the same atmospheric setup! Lets hope the shear forecast holds. All hell would be breaking lose if this was a Cat 4 South of Cuba!
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/ian-f ... ne-charley
2 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- SEASON_CANCELED
- Category 3
- Posts: 887
- Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
- Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
RevanTheJedi96 wrote:There's gotta be a decision made as to whether the GFS or Euro will be more accurate soon. If the Euro is more accurate, Tampa is in serious danger.
It's really too early.
The storm isnt even deepening or turning ywt.
Assuming the euro is right....its not even hitting its current projected plots below cuba...none of the models are.
You dont evacuate millions on such flimsy data
2 likes
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 146
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:12 am
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
So euro has a cat 3 approach with a cat 2 hit. Tampa will have to prepare for a cat 3 flood event if that’s the case. This is looking really bad unless is cuts south or the GFS solution materializes.
1 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 430
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:13 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:RevanTheJedi96 wrote:There's gotta be a decision made as to whether the GFS or Euro will be more accurate soon. If the Euro is more accurate, Tampa is in serious danger.
It's really too early.
The storm isnt even deepening or turning ywt
You dont evacuate millions on such flimsy data
The Tampa area is within the cone at 4 days out. I think that would constitute keep a close eye and if you live there; Buy some materials to prepare. Once a watch is placed (probably late tomorrow), and depending on guidance is there more decisions made from there. Still pretty premature. Not sure what kind of decisions would be needed at this exact point, and any decisions from Warning-onwards would be more urgent and warranted. If the public is spurred into a panic before there is a real handle, or even a real risk, then there would be increased complacency moving on. And that would benefit no one.
3 likes
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 5523
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
If this storm does manage to make it to Tampa, the landfall category isn’t going to matter much. The main event would be the surge, which will be more determined by its size and strength in the 24 hours or so leading up to landfall. If it peaks at 115kt in the gulf the way the nhc says, the difference in surge between a cat4 or cat 1 at landfall is going to be pretty negligible
5 likes
- SEASON_CANCELED
- Category 3
- Posts: 887
- Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
- Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
SapphireSea wrote:SEASON_CANCELED wrote:RevanTheJedi96 wrote:There's gotta be a decision made as to whether the GFS or Euro will be more accurate soon. If the Euro is more accurate, Tampa is in serious danger.
It's really too early.
The storm isnt even deepening or turning ywt
You dont evacuate millions on such flimsy data
The Tampa area is within the cone at 4 days out. I think that would constitute keep a close eye and if you live there; Buy some materials to prepare. Once a watch is placed (probably late tomorrow), and depending on guidance is there more decisions made from there. Still pretty premature. Not sure what kind of decisions would be needed at this exact point, and any decisions from Warning-onwards would be more urgent and warranted. If the public is spurred into a panic before there is a real handle, or even a real risk, then there would be increased complacency moving on. And that would benefit no one.
Bingo
Thank you.
Tampa / saint Pete/ sarasota Is a big area.
2 likes
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
ObsessedMiami wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.
The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.
This was essentially my point earlier. I’m sorry if it seemed critical to NHC, it wasn’t meant to be. Just that some decisions have to be made and soon
No doubt the NHC is keenly aware of that. My mom lives off Kendall Drive as well and she is well aware of the broad risk involved. At this point she already has in place the standard supplies need along with contingency plans in place with nearby friends/neighbors. At the moment there is no imminent threat to Miami-Dade and Broward counties, but circumstances can certainly change. Should that occur, a 10-hour plan is already in place for my mom's house to be shuttered and for her to be with me here in Central Florida. My 3-step plan? Step One - calm & careful planning (provisions, emergency supplies, plan a bug-out bag, communication, planned & alternate routes required timing for evac). Step two - calm and careful plan implementation. Step three - kick back, have a beer and some beef jerky, and enjoy the weather
3 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
18Z consensus (TVCN) shifts east and almost now to west coast of Florida:
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests