ATL: IAN - Models

[GTStorm]

That east trend has been absolutely relentless. All the major models now show it crossing into the Atlantic.

ICON is the furthest right now, showing a SC landfall. It's the one model we don't have verification for (I can't find it) so I'm very interested in seeing if all the other models trend up the east coast.

So I suppose that normally, you'd see something like this in this time of year just take off NE and get on out of here. What do the models see that want to drive it back toward the coast?

[SFLcane]

[StormTracker]

Let's hope not!

[SFLcane]

:eek:


Let's hope not!

Andy’s model

[SFLcane]

[Vdogg]

That east trend has been absolutely relentless. All the major models now show it crossing into the Atlantic.

ICON is the furthest right now, showing a SC landfall. It's the one model we don't have verification for (I can't find it) so I'm very interested in seeing if all the other models trend up the east coast.

So I suppose that normally, you'd see something like this in this time of year just take off NE and get on out of here. What do the models see that want to drive it back toward the coast?

Usually if there’s a cold front it just bounces it OTS anywhere from a NE to E trajectory. Actually happens with the majority of our storms up here, but apparently the ridge is blocking it.

[StAuggy]

Some of these model runs have Ian just off the NE FL coast along the 980mb range. That’s basically still a Cat 1 right? It’s trajectory and forward speed across the state as well as possible increased strength at landfall have these models hinting that it won’t weaken to a TS am I seeing that correctly?

[jdjaguar]

Some of these model runs have Ian just off the NE FL coast along the 980mb range. That’s basically still a Cat 1 right? It’s trajectory and forward speed across the state as well as possible increased strength at landfall have these models hinting that it won’t weaken to a TS am I seeing that correctly?

hopefully not.

[CronkPSU]

alright time for the 0z models to start rolling in...always funny how this board is red hot for days and the discussion board isn't until 24 hours before landfall and then this just goes dead

thought with the possible Carolinas second hit, more people might stick around in here for a few more days

[shah83]

0z Icon run is sort of impressive, slightly to the left of 18z, but...hmm, concerning run in the Atlantic.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

That east trend has been absolutely relentless. All the major models now show it crossing into the Atlantic.

ICON is the furthest right now, showing a SC landfall. It's the one model we don't have verification for (I can't find it) so I'm very interested in seeing if all the other models trend up the east coast.

So I suppose that normally, you'd see something like this in this time of year just take off NE and get on out of here. What do the models see that want to drive it back toward the coast?

There's a high pressure system over the Atlantic, that has been there most of the summer, that wants to steer Ian around it to the NW. To me, it just a matter of if the high pressure system retrogrades to the east, and how far, that will effect how far north Ian goes before it turn to the westerly directions, and a second landfall.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

ICON is the furthest right now, showing a SC landfall. It's the one model we don't have verification for (I can't find it) so I'm very interested in seeing if all the other models trend up the east coast.

So I suppose that normally, you'd see something like this in this time of year just take off NE and get on out of here. What do the models see that want to drive it back toward the coast?

Usually if there’s a cold front it just bounces it OTS anywhere from a NE to E trajectory. Actually happens with the majority of our storms up here, but apparently the ridge is blocking it.

The cold front dropped into the Gulf south of Louisiana today, this is what it is going to bounce off of and turn it ENE over Florida.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

alright time for the 0z models to start rolling in...always funny how this board is red hot for days and the discussion board isn't until 24 hours before landfall and then this just goes dead

thought with the possible Carolinas second hit, more people might stick around in here for a few more days

Most of the members(from my understanding) live in Florida. So, after it passes them, the boards dry up a bit. I don't fault them. Most of them are sleeping for a few days to recover from the build up to Florida. I do the same after a storm passes NC.

[jdray]

alright time for the 0z models to start rolling in...always funny how this board is red hot for days and the discussion board isn't until 24 hours before landfall and then this just goes dead

thought with the possible Carolinas second hit, more people might stick around in here for a few more days

I've always lurked and read more than posted, but it definitely does drop off as soon as landfall is near. I think many people see the models just for storm strength and path, but forget about the rest of what the model threads is for.

[wx98]

alright time for the 0z models to start rolling in...always funny how this board is red hot for days and the discussion board isn't until 24 hours before landfall and then this just goes dead

thought with the possible Carolinas second hit, more people might stick around in here for a few more days

I've always lurked and read more than posted, but it definitely does drop off as soon as landfall is near. I think many people see the models just for storm strength and path, but forget about the rest of what the model threads is for.

I like to lurk in the models thread during the big events as well, but I like to read through every post in the discussion thread. So I spend way more time there and just stop in here to get the latest info.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: landfall a bit north of the 12Z and is near Punta Gorda. Exits FL at Cape Canaveral. Then landfall a little north of Charleston:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.09.2022

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 83.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2022 0 24.3N 83.0W 961 72
1200UTC 28.09.2022 12 26.0N 82.6W 959 83
0000UTC 29.09.2022 24 27.2N 81.8W 979 58
1200UTC 29.09.2022 36 28.1N 81.0W 990 47
0000UTC 30.09.2022 48 29.4N 79.9W 986 60
1200UTC 30.09.2022 60 31.1N 79.5W 984 51
0000UTC 01.10.2022 72 33.4N 79.7W 986 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 84 35.0N 80.6W 1001 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 96 36.0N 80.1W 1006 20
1200UTC 02.10.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

[caneman]

Did GFS run already? It looked like it to me? If so, did it tick North to Venice or Sarasota? Couldn't tell with these aging eyes. Lol

[PTPatrick]

0z are in…
Gfs not much change, landfall around Venice
Hwrf shifted a tad back north and now tracks directly over Sarasota
CMC splits the difference with a landfall a hair north of GFS, osprey?
HMON is pretty similar to CMC I think between Sarasota and Venice

Hmon and hwrf actually both shifted very slightly left, I think. It’ll be a big storm so likely immaterial shifts.

[caneman]

0z are in…
Gfs not much change, landfall around Venice
Hwrf shifted a tad back north and now tracks directly over Sarasota
CMC splits the difference with a landfall a hair north of GFS, osprey?
HMON is pretty similar to CMC I think between Sarasota and Venice

Hmon and hwrf actually both shifted very slightly left, I think. It’ll be a big storm so likely immaterial shifts.

I thought I saw Northward too. Last hour or so on radar there is also a clear due North movement.

[tolakram]

GFS further up the Atlantic coast now, following the ICON.