ATL: IAN - Models

[Blown Away]

06z ECENS

Current Position

Ian again is already on the E side of the 06z ECENS.
Noticed 5am was at 23.6N, already E component.
TIme to watch the radar/satellite, clear any E of the track moves landfall farther down SWFL coast.

[skyline385]

06z ECENS

Current Position

Ian again is already on the E side of the 06z ECENS.
Noticed 5am was at 23.6N, already E component.
TIme to watch the radar/satellite, clear any E of the track moves landfall farther down SWFL coast.

Just fyi those are 0Z EPS, 06Z isn’t out yet


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[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/xLvy02r.png
06z ECENS
https://i.imgur.com/Bpwef96.png
Current Position

Ian again is already on the E side of the 06z ECENS.
Noticed 5am was at 23.6N, already E component.
TIme to watch the radar/satellite, clear any E of the track moves landfall farther down SWFL coast.

Just fyi those are 0Z EPS, 06Z isn’t out yet


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Oops, I meant 00z. Thanks.

[SecondBreakfast]

I know we are all watching Florida, with half an eye on the Carolinas, but do we know anything about the steering patterns for further up the NE coast? I was so transfixed by Ida hitting in the gulf last year that I was not ready for the devastating flooding in NY…

[pgoss11]

I know we are all watching Florida, with half an eye on the Carolinas, but do we know anything about the steering patterns for further up the NE coast? I was so transfixed by Ida hitting in the gulf last year that I was not ready for the devastating flooding in NY…

I’m in New England and from what the Mets here say this part of the country will have strong high pressure over us which would prevent us from getting any moisture from Ian up this way. As least that how it looks for now..

[jhpigott]

Looks like 06z Euro holding serve at 48 hour mark. Makes landfall around Sarasota.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2706&fh=-6

[skyline385]

06Z Euro precipitation plot, still lots of rain especially over Tampa

[tolakram]

6Z GFS

[FLpanhandle91]

The angle of approach of Ian makes even a 15 mile change of direction change the landfall location on the coastline by 30+ miles. That's wobble territory. I think some of these posts giving Tampa the all clear are a bit hasty.

[aspen]

The 6z HWRF makes landfall as a weakening Cat 2/3 north of Tampa at around 9z Thursday morning, while the 6z HMON makes landfall south of Tampa as a 3/4 at 21z Wednesday afternoon. The track has shifted east enough that, even on the western side, Ian doesn’t weaken that much before landfall after its Gulf peak sometime later today into early Wednesday.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro, full version of 6Z not available yet

[MJGarrison]

06Z Euro


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[zipperbaum]

Time to start looking at tide charts in Tampa Bay... The chart varies about 2 hours from the southern to northern end but below is Thursday.

High
4:25am
(0.91m)
Low
11:38am
(0.09m)
High
6:32pm
(0.69m)
Low
11:01pm
(0.49m)

[tolakram]

Tampa either gets surge and less rain, or less surge and a record amount of rain. I guess less surge is the better solution.

HWRF is still north, HMON and HAFS similar to GFS.

[SFLcane]

Tcvn shifts east again!

[skyline385]

Tcvn shifts east again!

https://i.postimg.cc/GmMkYWjF/B63-C7-A9-B-5-A60-45-BC-A44-E-CCAE9-ADFF6-D9.png

CMC/GEPS needs to be taken apart lol, its been doing random stuff for the past 2-3 days.

[pgoss11]

Tcvn shifts east again! Now south of nhc track

https://i.postimg.cc/GmMkYWjF/B63-C7-A9-B-5-A60-45-BC-A44-E-CCAE9-ADFF6-D9.png

With these continued east shifts I think there’s more of a possibility this gets out in the Atlantic and a possible 2nd landfall in SC

[skyline385]

Kinda interesting that once Ian passes, its going to be extremely dry over SFL. RH seems to be less than 20% on the GFS & Euro.

[cane5]

So days later the ICON model looks sharp can anyone give update on latest model run.. thanks in advance

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF... Big shift E with landfall in Tampa then crosses state into Atlantic... This model has been the west outlier for a while...