ATL: IAN - Models

[tolakram]

ICON

[Craters]

GFS further up the Atlantic coast now, following the ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/Og63QKD.gif

Mark, when the *#&%@! do you sleep??

[tolakram]

GFS further up the Atlantic coast now, following the ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/Og63QKD.gif

Mark, when the *#&%@! do you sleep??

I was asleep, I will be asleep again in a few minutes

[Poonwalker]

Ian going to do the double tap. Icon has it blowing up in the Atlantic prior to second landfall. Brutal

[tolakram]

EC-FAST also showing further up coast and stronger

[tolakram]

0Z Euro

[tolakram]

HWRF shows no dryness issues all the way to landfall, which is still north of most other models.

[SouthernBreeze]

Euro pretty much following TVCN

[tolakram]

ICON is correcting south for the second landfall

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the 6z GFS and to a greater extent 6z HWRF have shifted south from the 0z runs, landfall around Englewood

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF

[tolakram]

6Z GFS

[tolakram]

[TallyTracker]

Based on some of those model runs, I’d probably put a hurricane watch up for Georgia and South Carolina. Would not surprise me to see Ian reintensify slightly back to hurricane strength before final landfall. There is ample uncertainty to warrant it.

[tolakram]

HMON 6Z


HAFS 6Z (running)

[Vdogg]

HMON 6Z
https://i.imgur.com/xT2iuMw.gif

HAFS 6Z (running)
https://i.imgur.com/6qocPu5.gif

Correct me if I'm wrong but both of these seem to show a much more easterly trajectory than their earlier runs off the coast? Could indicate a change in landfall further up.

[caneman]

HMON 6Z
https://i.imgur.com/xT2iuMw.gif

HAFS 6Z (running)
https://i.imgur.com/6qocPu5.gif

Correct me if I'm wrong but both of these seem to show a much more easterly trajectory than their earlier runs off the coast? Could indicate a change in landfall further up.

Youre correct and I think those are from a few hours ago

[cane5]

HMON 6Z
https://i.imgur.com/xT2iuMw.gif

HAFS 6Z (running)
https://i.imgur.com/6qocPu5.gif

Correct me if I'm wrong but both of these seem to show a much more easterly trajectory than their earlier runs off the coast? Could indicate a change in landfall further up.

Youre correct and I think those are from a few hours

ago

Wow the hafs shows it almost due east across the state. Not going to do that but ya have to wonder if it goes as far north as projected in the short term. So far I have no confidence in the NHC after all we heard was Tampa. I knew it was going to Ft Myers a day ago check my past posting. And the German model was spot on period end of story.

[skillz305]

Correct me if I'm wrong but both of these seem to show a much more easterly trajectory than their earlier runs off the coast? Could indicate a change in landfall further up.

Youre correct and I think those are from a few hours

ago

Wow the hafs shows it almost due east across the state. Not going to do that but ya have to wonder if it goes as far north as projected in the short term. So far I have no confidence in the NHC after all we heard was Tampa. I knew it was going to Ft Myers a day ago check my past posting. And the German model was spot on period end of story.

Forecast models have their errors. It’s not a perfect science. The models sure as hell do a great job at giving us a general idea!

[cane5]

Youre correct and I think those are from a few hours

ago

Wow the hafs shows it almost due east across the state. Not going to do that but ya have to wonder if it goes as far north as projected in the short term. So far I have no confidence in the NHC after all we heard was Tampa. I knew it was going to Ft Myers a day ago check my past posting. And the German model was spot on period end of story.

Forecast models have their errors. It’s not a perfect science. The models sure as hell do a great job at giving us a general idea!

Yes sometimes like the ICON they get it perfect.