ATL: IAN - Models

[SFLcane]

[LarryWx]

12z ukmet pretty far south.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Lc1Csww/706-C7642-CEF7-4524-B727-BF0-A6-C3-E4914.jpg

That is actually 20 miles north of the 0Z though.

[otowntiger]

At 48 hours the Euro looks to have slightly less ridging to the east of Florida than the 06Z.

Slightly less ridging on the east of Florida, would result in?

Potentially a more easterly motion.

[chris_fit]

Doesn't look like it' budging

[chaser1]

I suspect that the EURO 12Z will not have appreciably deviated from it's prior 0Z run. Following the 12Z suite of model runs (and review of last night's EURO 0Z) this much IS clear.

- All models presently reflect the E. Coast trough reaching it's zenith (in terms of sharpness and lowest heights) to occur between 42 hr.'s and 48 hr.'s. Only exception here being the 0Z EURO reflecting this feature to extend up to 51 hr.'s.
- GFS, ICON, and CMC "12Z "run-to-run" comparisons reflect an eastward AND slightly faster track (faster=increase in latitude).

The above would imply that the "faster" Ian develops a deeper and aligned inner core, the quicker the storm is apt to begin tracking more poleward (pending any short-term stall as result of sudden deepening). If this occurs fairly quickly that would seem to suggest an increased risk to heavily populated area's from Ft. Myers to Spring Hill (especially Sarasota/Tampa area).

What remains primarily unknown at the moment is whether Ian will significantly organize and begin the more northward turn as forecast by NHC. Also yet to play out is whether this E. Coast trough becomes slightly less or more pronounced or whether the timing of this evolution might speed up or extend later in time.

FASTER Storm Evolution = Increased track & intensity risk to W. Central Florida
SLOWER Storm Evolution=Decreased track risk & intensity to W. Central Florida.
Any potential flooding or other impact to the Keys/S. Florida or the Fla. Panhandle would seem also tied to the timing of Ian's evolution as well.

Assuming no westward shift by the 12Z EURO, then I'd have to think we'll see NHC slightly adjust the storm track at about 48-60 hr. to be 1-2 degrees further to the east. Then depending on expected strengthening and more northwesterly motion this evening and overnight, a potential further eastward "nudging" of storm track sufficient to possibly raise Watches for parts of W. Coast Florida mid-day tomorrow.

[tolakram]

[chris_fit]

Yup, not budging. Incredible consistency.

[CrazyC83]

Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.

The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/1P1R7ta.png

The only silver lining here is that both the GFS and Euro show some weakening on the approach to the FL coast. Let’s hope that is the case. That is not to minimize the potential impacts but at least it probably won’t be a Dorian or Michael redux. The problem if it took that Euro track is the surge over the Tampa Bay area that would result.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Yup, not budging. Incredible consistency.

https://i.imgur.com/WU7YHiP.png

Direct hit on sarasota/Bradenton

[StormPyrate]

So with the European model not budging, has there ever been a historical case where it was this consistent and turned out to be wrong?
I am in Clearwater, not beach the city. near the tampay bay side of things. Might be a bug out if it holds.

[NDG]

[Blown Away]

Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.

The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.

If Ian moves a little R of the track then potentially points S of Tampa and timeframe even sooner.

[otowntiger]

Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.

The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.

Agreed. They will adjust to follow the TVCN, the mean path, right? But I agree in that they will need to decide very soon on pulling the trigger on watches and warnings for Florida’s west coast- the big question will be how far south will they need to extend it?

[CrazyC83]

https://i.imgur.com/1P1R7ta.png

The only silver lining here is that both the GFS and Euro show some weakening on the approach to the FL coast. Let’s hope that is the case. That is not to minimize the potential impacts but at least it probably won’t be a Dorian or Michael redux. The problem if it took that Euro track is the surge over the Tampa Bay area that would result.

GFS has rapid weakening on approach, but Euro largely holds the intensity as the shear isn't as big of a factor due to the track being parallel to the shear axis (although it also doesn't intensify it quite as much initially).

[NDG]

Worst case scenario for Tampa Bay.

[tolakram]

12Z showing a much weaker storm deepening somewhat on approach.

[jfk08c]

Euro landfalls in the Tampa bay area and continues NE through the peninsula.

[StPeteMike]

Someone's going to get burned here, and someone's going to get vindicated.

The tough part is that, if the ECMWF track is perfect, a Hurricane Watch will be needed by late tomorrow. At some point, there has to be a decision made.

Agreed. They will adjust to follow the TVCN, the mean path, right? But I agree in that they will need to decide very soon on pulling the trigger on watches and warnings for Florida’s west coast- the big question will be how far south will they need to extend it?

I can’t see it anywhere south of Venice for Hurricane watches.

[Nimbus]

Levi tracked down the frame where the Euro split the trough and left some weakness that brings this into the Tampa bay area. Actually quite similar to the Charley trough split except it was further upstream off Long Island so the effect would be more subtle. That becomes less likely if Ian continues to move slowly south of Cuba which gives the ridging a chance to build back in. Still have to respect the possibility for now but I think there is less than a 50% chance of the NHC having to kick the track back east over Ocean pond.