ATL: IAN - Models

[Teban54]

0z GFS 42-96 hrs

[PTPatrick]

Landfall over Sarasota county will be orders of magnitude better on the Tampa bay surge issue. But with the strong northwest eye wall side could still wallop st. Pete and Tampa. It won’t make tons of difference to Sarasota, but will help Tampa a lot.

[Craters]

With this GFS solution the Tampa area would trade the surge for prodigious rainfall (as precipitation becomes displaced to the north as the system is sheared), swath of 30-45 inch totals.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022092700/081/qpf_acc.us_se.png

That looks like 33" - 35" to me, but even so, I wouldn't wish that on anybody, having gone through Harvey.

[NDG]

I don't know what would be worst north of Tampa Bay, a storm surge or 40"+ of rain if Ian stall to the south.

[Teban54]

GFS trend

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

I don't know what would be worst north of Tampa Bay, a storm surge or 40"+ of rain if Ian stall to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/hyBRE5i.png

Wow 42 inches of rain for Pinellas. Is that realistic?

[Meteorcane]

00Z CMC is over 100 miles east of its 12Z run through about 54 hours... still the slowest moving solution so it will likely stall just offshore of Tampa and drift slowly northward.

[tolakram]

[eastcoastFL]

24 hr loop, it barely moves it after making landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/Bch03c7.gif

This would be absolutely horrific not to mention insane. This is like Harvey on the west coast of Florida.

[birdwomn]

With this GFS solution the Tampa area would trade the surge for prodigious rainfall (as precipitation becomes displaced to the north as the system is sheared), swath of 30-45 inch totals.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022092700/081/qpf_acc.us_se.png

That looks like 33" - 35" to me, but even so, I wouldn't wish that on anybody, having gone through Harvey.

Let's not forget the ground is already saturated in the Tampa Bay area.

[cheezyWXguy]

Positive trends so far, but tampa is by no means out of the woods yet in regard to surge. I’m hesitant to lean into a further south landfall, not only because of the impacts of small deviations/wobbles, but also because a stronger storm will have a tendency to try and stay a little west of the path. It bothers me that both the icon and gfs initialized too weak and still bring this as close as they do to Tampa

[jdray]

https://i.imgur.com/B2yISb5.png

I'm going to need to break out the flippers if that kind of rainfall comes to pass.

[caneman]

https://i.imgur.com/B2yISb5.png

Wow. I live in the 42 inch swath. Hope that doesn't bear out. Thats biblical stuff

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/B2yISb5.png

Central Florida Kayak Navy officer, reporting for duty

[eastcoastFL]

Positive trends so far, but tampa is by no means out of the woods yet in regard to surge. I’m hesitant to lean into a further south landfall, not only because of the impacts of small deviations/wobbles, but also because a stronger storm will have a tendency to try and stay a little west of the path. It bothers me that both the icon and gfs initialized too weak and still bring this as close as they do to Tampa

What is positive about the trend, is it the decreased surge threat?

[AdamFirst]

anyone have the UKM plot? They've consistently been on the southern end of the envelope and I'd like to see where that one ends up.

[cheezyWXguy]

Positive trends so far, but tampa is by no means out of the woods yet in regard to surge. I’m hesitant to lean into a further south landfall, not only because of the impacts of small deviations/wobbles, but also because a stronger storm will have a tendency to try and stay a little west of the path. It bothers me that both the icon and gfs initialized too weak and still bring this as close as they do to Tampa

What is positive about the trend, is it the decreased surge threat?

Yeah the surge would be reduced to that area, and I should have pointed out that it’s a positive trend for tampa specifically. Though as others have pointed out, it’s kind of a trade off with the rain. At this point, I view any deviation from the 12z doomsday scenario as positive, even though it’s still terrible

[Poonwalker]

Omg. Iam actually going to get flooded if that happens. Can someone verify if that’s possible?

[IcyTundra]

Omg. Iam actually going to get flooded if that happens. Can someone verify if that’s possible?

If it moves as slowly as the GFS depicts it is certainly possible. Back in 2017 I thought the rainfall numbers the models were putting out for Harvey weren’t possible unfortunately I had to learn the hard way that it was very much possible.