ATL: IAN - Models

[ColdMiser123]

GFS is now one run to run trend away from bringing Ian onshore near Tampa.

[tolakram]

Trend is no-one's friend

[Sailingtime]

The trend to right by the GFS continues.

Caving to the Euro it seems

The GFS has been a West outlier throughout this storms formation and only recently has come into line with the Eastern trending models. My thought is that if the GFS being a Western outlier, does that mean that the Eastern models will move more East as well? Makes sense to some degree not sure how much however. West Coast of Central Florida needs to definitely keep a watchful eye.

[jfk08c]

Misses the trough again and gets stuck under the high pressure building behind it. GFS just wants it to miss the escape route each time but it's feeling the tug more and more each run

[tolakram]

Slow movement N/NW (yes, that's correct)

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Beyond just the wind, that would be an absolutely insane rain event for the Tampa Bay area.

[tolakram]

[floridasun]

what change more stift to naple area and fort Myers area?

[Hurrilurker]

If it really does that weird pause as the GFS is suggesting, it's going to mean A LOT of extra rain in central Florida.

[Blown Away]

Crazy, for 20 years the GFS has never met a trough it didn’t want to overdue until Ian came along…

[N2FSU]

The due north turn and even NNW movement isn't that crazy. The Euro shows this too, but only after making landfall near Tampa. TVCN shows this also, just much later.


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[skyline385]

Looks like this round goes to the Euro, now I am wondering if there is potential for further shift east. The 18Z Euro will be very telling probably, if its still locked in then we might be closing in on the potential landfall location.

[CrazyC83]

The due north turn and even NNW movement isn't that crazy. The Euro shows this too, but only after making landfall near Tampa. TVCN shows this also, just much later. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220925/0ef779760c8d91a2b9b340649d362149.jpg


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A slow crawl up the Peninsula would be a massive rainfall event, especially since it can feed from both sides.

[SconnieCane]

Just bizarre seeing the GFS be so reluctant to send Ian into the weakness when out in the open ATL it frequently tries to ram storms like Irma and Florence right through ridges in its haste to get them poleward. Granted, the vast majority of TCs do turn OTS well east of a CONUS landfall, but for those exceptions it held on to that idea quite long after there were strong indications from other modeling that the pattern wouldn't support it. Yet here we are with the GFS being the left outlier.

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[skyline385]

The due north turn and even NNW movement isn't that crazy. The Euro shows this too, but only after making landfall near Tampa. TVCN shows this also, just much later. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220925/0ef779760c8d91a2b9b340649d362149.jpg


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A slow crawl up the Peninsula would be a massive rainfall event, especially since it can feed from both sides.

ICON has had several runs like that with massive 12"+ rain over a large section of the peninsula.

[johngaltfla]

The due north turn and even NNW movement isn't that crazy. The Euro shows this too, but only after making landfall near Tampa. TVCN shows this also, just much later. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220925/0ef779760c8d91a2b9b340649d362149.jpg


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A slow crawl up the Peninsula would be a massive rainfall event, especially since it can feed from both sides.

And since most of Western Florida is still saturated from a decent rainy season, the outcome would be very, very bad.

[tolakram]

This is the latest Euro total rainfall

[skyline385]

This is the latest Euro total rainfall

https://i.imgur.com/4BQ1htr.png

Here's one with exact numbers for the curious, already a massive rainfall even for west coast. Any further turns east would make it so much worse.

[Abdullah]

Any of you all want a good laugh check out the NAM 3 KM 18Z



Over under on this one?