ATL: IAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2884
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

ATL: IAN - Models

#1 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:13 am

Models here

Start off with 06Z GFS
Image


00Z ECMF
Image
Last edited by chris_fit on Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8777
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#2 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:14 am

Image
1 likes   

Jelmergraaff
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 123
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:00 pm
Location: The Netherlands

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#3 Postby Jelmergraaff » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:15 am

Compared to this morning (06z vs 00z), the ECMWF Ensemble spread is quite a bit higher for coming Monday. This indicates that an increasing number of members is showing (some) development of invest 98L. Most members pretty far southwest to be honest, almost going into Central-America.

2 likes   
19-year old meteorologist from The Netherlands. Interested in all fields of meteorology, including tropical systems like hurricanes.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8777
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#4 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:30 am

:double:

Image
5 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6504
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#5 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:39 am


Right on the line( I know don't focus on the line) beyond 7 days, we will take that solution and run with it for a few days and be happy. Wxman57 is on board with multiple model support, Galveston to the Outerbanks should start their gennys today. This is a gulf coast, Florida peninsula threat then as it pulls out up the east coast. I think we get one more major in October and the season goes at least two weeks longer than"normal". This setup is very dangerous and produces major hurricanes up to a 5 but way too early for intensity predictions other than to say the setup looks explosive.
5 likes   

User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 543
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#6 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:44 am

Comparing 06z ECENS to 0z: More members south
(black square is 0z ECMF @ 144hrs)
Image
Image

06z HWRF:
Image
Last edited by Spacecoast on Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8777
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#7 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:46 am

Spacecoast wrote:Comparing 06z ECENSTO 0z: More members south
(black square is 0z ECMF @ 144hrs)
https://i.ibb.co/yVk7bCK/cfc.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/n7f3q3r/cfd.jpg


Yes ECMWF does not develop this wave much until the western caribbean. I do though think the gfs/gefs has this one pigged imo.
0 likes   

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1136
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#8 Postby caneseddy » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:29 am

0 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1516
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#9 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:58 am



Seems like pretty normal biases so far. GFS aggressive, Euro non-aggressive. CMC would be the best forecast until we see just how quickly 98L organizes. I continue to think a stronger short term for 98L probably means an Eastern Gulf (possibly FL Peninsula or east of there) track.
0 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8777
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#10 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:50 am

12z GFS has this intensifying as it passes the islands
0 likes   

User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 543
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#11 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:50 am

12z ICON: Same position as 0z ECMF, only much stronger
Image
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3797
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#12 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:55 am

GFS a bit faster this run, and slightly weaker short term.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6268
Age: 58
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#13 Postby boca » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:04 am

I think Mobile Al on this run.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8777
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#14 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:05 am

boca wrote:I think Mobile Al on this run.


Or Central America.
0 likes   

lsuhurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 170
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:53 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#15 Postby lsuhurricane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:07 am

20mbs weaker on this run vs 06z. Interestingly though, same positions between runs.
0 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1800
Age: 19
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#16 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:16 am

GFS back at it again with a major hurricane.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
jfk08c
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 114
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:36 pm
Location: Lakeland, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#17 Postby jfk08c » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:18 am

Starts the northward turn right after Jamaica again. Might be a tad west this run due to lower strength. Although it seems like RI got it down a similar pressure as the last run as it approaches Cuba
1 likes   

TheHurricaneGod
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 120
Age: 19
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:19 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#18 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:21 am

Based on the past 5 runs or so of the GFS, I think the wildcard is the trough over the east coast, after it passes Jamaica
0 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1800
Age: 19
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#19 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:22 am

Its down to 944mb. lower than the previous run.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4027
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#20 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:23 am

This should end up west of 6z into the GOM
Last edited by toad strangler on Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests