ATL: IAN - Models

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1001 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:54 pm

HWRF SIM IR as it crosses Cuba

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1002 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:56 pm

HMON is NE of the 12z position as well but not as strong... yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1003 Postby Fancy1001 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:57 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:HWRF going beast mode, up to 130 knots and NE of the 12z position.

Can you post a link. tidbits is really slow and behind.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1004 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:57 pm

The HWRF looks like it sped up vs 12z. faster moving storm. This will probably end up further east
Last edited by TheHurricaneGod on Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1005 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:57 pm

Windfield expands a bit after interacting with Cuba

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1006 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:00 pm

114 hours

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1007 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:00 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Windfield expands a bit after interacting with Cuba

Image
HWRF always looking to maximize conditions.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1008 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:01 pm

Almost all GFS ensembles were east of operational it looks like
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1009 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:01 pm

Huge east shift in 18z GEFS ensembles. Euro may be scoring the W here, we may know with certainty by tomorrow.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1010 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:02 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Windfield expands a bit after interacting with Cuba

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2022092218/hwrf_ref_98L_35.png
HWRF always looking to maximize conditions.


It sure does and this one is no exception. It’s going to town once it hits that warm pool in the gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1011 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:02 pm




YIKES!!! and that is AFTER going over Cuba and really hitting the gulf and its warm waters!?!?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1012 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:05 pm

HWRF looks like it wobbles NW from 114 to 120 hours unless I’m not seeing this right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1013 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:13 pm

The HWRF has a lot of competing bands and partial eyewalls inside 98L after passing Jamaica’s latitude, and this doesn’t sort out until its Western Cuba landfall. I would lean toward the HWRF sniffing out some internal dynamics ahead of time, but it got all of Fiona’s EWRCs totally wrong — it missed the one the day after its DR landfall but forecasted one that should’ve started last night. Only time will tell what 98L’s core will end up like.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1014 Postby LowerAlabamaTider » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:15 pm

Until a center develops, even while following the atmospheric forecasts now, the where and when is any models guess.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1015 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:19 pm

18Z HWRF ends at 935mb

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Last edited by skyline385 on Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1016 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:19 pm

Surprise! Lol

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1017 Postby Spacecoast » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:20 pm

18z GEFS: Compared to 12z...
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Image

Edt SFLCANE beat me to it!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1018 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:22 pm

18Z GEFS :double:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1019 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:26 pm

There are too many 'what ifs' out there with 98L right now that may not be factored with the models, these are my biggest ones.

What if the system refuses the northward turn until it's closer to the Western Caribbean and therefore dodges Cuba and the Yucatan completely by threading the needle?
What if the trough that is going to affect the system direction and/or strength was weaker or stronger than expected?
What if the storm unexpectedly explosively intensified in an area that was not expected to do so?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1020 Postby AJC3 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:31 pm

'The center hasn't even formed yet' talk is quickly on its way to becoming null and void from here on out. In fact, this morning's scatterometer data (13Z-14Z) and satellite derived winds showed a pretty well-defined surface-850MB vorticity center that should have gone into the initialization of the 18Z model guidance, and I suspect it will be at least as well-defined in the upcoming 00Z runs. How well the model guidance initializes it is another matter, however we're at the point now where we have a decent LL center fix to work with.
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