ATL: IAN - Models

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TheHurricaneGod
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1061 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:28 pm

Going to settle in between the euro and GFS for now. After considering those model biases. good night. see yall tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1062 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:29 pm

So which model do we believe. Euro or GFS. Just crazy.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1063 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:31 pm

Euro trend last three runs. Weaker and more east each run:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1064 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:37 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573079149815775234

One thing to note is that the GFS might be over doing the shear in the gulf.

Yes and no. It’s probably not overdoing shear from an environmental standpoint, given the setup, but it probably is from a storm-relative standpoint. A more realistic outcome would be for the storm to travel more east with the flow, instead of fighting it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1065 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:46 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
aspen wrote:What causes the Euro to be weaker but turn north sooner, and the GFS/HWRF to be stronger and further south? It’s such a weird flip-flop of typical model track biases.


I think it’s weaker because it spends more time over mountainous parts of Cuba in this run and misses out on more time over the warmest waters. So it’s kinda beat after it crosses Cuba. That part makes sense. The quicker turn north I’m not so sold on. It will be interesting if the other models predict a trough as strong as the euro has in this run.

At this point I would not be shocked if at least 20% of this is just windshield wiping. Definitely could miss us to the east, but too early to see if it won't swing back west just as easily. I remember the windshield wiping with Irma, as it appeared there was a good chance it would miss us to the east.


I think you’re right and we’re in for a weekend full of model shifts back and fourth. Irma had me drive to my in laws west of Orlando only to wake up the next day and drive back to PSL. Fun stuff
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1066 Postby StAuggy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:05 pm

The 18z euro is already to far N and E with its initialization and the furthest sw members all end up in w Cuba and don’t miss FL. This is important in the trends… and it will almost have to correct back west on upcoming runs. We should have a td very soon so initializations should get much better
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1067 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:28 pm

0Z ICON decides to go significantly west of previous runs, 18Z was almost missing SFL entirely.

And then it rides up the spine of Florida to 180 hours, literally worst case scenario

Image
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1068 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 pm

skyline385 wrote:0Z ICON decides to go significantly west of previous runs, 18Z was almost missing SFL entirely.

And then it rides up the spine of Florida to 180 hours, literally worst case scenario

https://i.imgur.com/YULDT5v.png

Guessing because it shows a much stronger system
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1069 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:32 pm

skyline385 wrote:0Z ICON decides to go significantly west of previous runs, 18Z was almost missing SFL entirely.

https://i.imgur.com/YULDT5v.png


From the SE tip of Florida to Naples..putting South Florida on the dirty side..Wilma part 2

Oof that run of Icon is really bad for the whole state. eyewall rake the entire East Coast of the state up to Orlando
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1070 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:47 pm

GFS 0Z going to be west again probably, there's the center relocation again

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1071 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:58 pm

caneseddy wrote:
skyline385 wrote:0Z ICON decides to go significantly west of previous runs, 18Z was almost missing SFL entirely.

https://i.imgur.com/YULDT5v.png


From the SE tip of Florida to Naples..putting South Florida on the dirty side..Wilma part 2

Oof that run of Icon is really bad for the whole state. eyewall rake the entire East Coast of the state up to Orlando


As depicted, likely worse than Wilma, because at least she was booking along at 20mph. This one is a lingerer...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1072 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:00 pm

Another shift N on the 0z GFS, and stronger
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1073 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:00 pm

Image

GFS much stronger
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1074 Postby ncapps » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:01 pm

0Z GFS has a strong hurricane hitting W Cuba. Guessing this will be a big bend hit again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1075 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:02 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1076 Postby sponger » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:05 pm

GFS running showing a 957 system moving N through Western Cuba. Florida may be in big big trouble!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022092300&fh=96
Last edited by sponger on Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1077 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:07 pm

sponger wrote:GFS running showing a 957 system moving N through Western Cuba. Florida may be in big big trouble!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022092300&fh=96


Just completed the turn, headed towards Ft. Meyers probably this run

Image
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1078 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:07 pm

This is not looking good for the Tampa Bay area:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1079 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:09 pm

Well this is an east shift for the GFS, since it's headed into west central Florida instead of the panhandle
Last edited by HurricaneBelle on Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1080 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:09 pm

That's less than 5 days away too. That's going to have to show up on the first forecast if they call this PTC 9 or TD 9 tomorrow morning (say, at the 5 am advisory).
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