ATL: IAN - Models
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
where does UKMET take it after that last frame? through the state again?
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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
CronkPSU wrote:where does UKMET take it after that last frame? through the state again?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
tolakram wrote:CronkPSU wrote:where does UKMET take it after that last frame? through the state again?
https://i.imgur.com/jE6KFa3.gif
thanks!
ugh right through Orlando...
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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
any new Euro graphics?
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Ed_2001
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
CronkPSU wrote:any new Euro graphics?
Looks like landfall around Englewood
Last edited by Ed_2001 on Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind...
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Ed_2001 wrote:CronkPSU wrote:any new Euro graphics?
Looks like landfall around Englewood
thanks
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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
that run is quite a bit weaker than the 12z, right?
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Poonwalker
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
CronkPSU wrote:that run is quite a bit weaker than the 12z, right?
It will probably be a much larger wind field though. Ian is a really big storm and that surge is going to be worse then the central pressure suggests after this EWRC completes.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
The HWRF is hinting that another round of intensification may be expected once the EWRC is done. In fact, it drops it to the 920s briefly before landfall.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
18Z Euro stronger than the 12Z.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
trend
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
947mb at landfall ? Basically what it is now, so no more weakening before landfall it seems?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
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ThunderForce
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
I really hope the HWRF is wrong about that intensity forecast. I think that pressure level would make Ian about a high-end Cat. 4 or 5...
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
18Z Euro
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
That east trend has been absolutely relentless. All the major models now show it crossing into the Atlantic.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Vdogg wrote:That east trend has been absolutely relentless. All the major models now show it crossing into the Atlantic.
ICON is the furthest right now, showing a SC landfall. It's the one model we don't have verification for (I can't find it) so I'm very interested in seeing if all the other models trend up the east coast.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:
947mb at landfall ? Basically what it is now, so no more weakening before landfall it seems?
Global models, especially Euro, always underestimate intensity due to resolution issues. For example, 18z Euro initialized Ian's pressure as 976 mb (at 2pm EDT), when the actual pressure was 955 mb. Euro's pressure for right now (~1z) is 970 mb when the reality is 947.
The fact that Euro still deepens it by 23 mb from now till landfall is... Not good.
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