ATL: ELEVEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Subtrop
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ATL: ELEVEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Subtrop » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:16 am

AL, 99, 2022092112, , BEST, 0, 113N, 324W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030, SPAWNINVEST, al732022 to al992022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:17 am

Maybe this can steal Hermine from 98L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:35 am

IcyTundra wrote:Maybe this can steal Hermine from 98L.

And then we are back to the cursed I name for 98L


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:37 am

skyline385 wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:Maybe this can steal Hermine from 98L.

And then we are back to the cursed I name for 98L


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Or, the wave currently in Africa quickly develops, and 98L ends up being named Julia
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:37 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#6 Postby Beef Stew » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:51 am

Looking for the odds to be bumped substantially later today. This wave is looking very healthy. Interested to see ASCAT if we get a good pass.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#7 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:01 pm

Beef Stew wrote:Looking for the odds to be bumped substantially later today. This wave is looking very healthy. Interested to see ASCAT if we get a good pass.


ASCAT did make a pass, but the convection is sheared to the west
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby Beef Stew » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:06 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Beef Stew wrote:Looking for the odds to be bumped substantially later today. This wave is looking very healthy. Interested to see ASCAT if we get a good pass.


ASCAT did make a pass, but the convection is sheared to the west



Ah, thanks for the info. I must’ve missed it earlier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#9 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:18 pm

Jeez it’s hard to keep track of everything out there. A week ago today it seemed like this’ll be a below average, slow-burn season. Now we have three AOIs competing for the next name on the list alongside a TS and a Cat 4 hurricane.

The first SHIPS output shows a very favorable environment…except for the fact that RH values are only in the 50s%. This might be a sleeper and over-achiever if it can avoid taking in too much dry air, which will be very difficult for it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:58 pm

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued in association with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Despite a dry environment, slow development of
this system is possible over the next several days as it moves
northwestward and then westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#11 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:52 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:49 pm

Finally being analyzed by TAFB...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from west of the Cabo
Verde Islands at 16N southward through a weak 1012 mb low at
10.5N32.5W, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 09N to 14N between 30W
and 36W. Slow development is possible and there is a low chance of
formation for the next 5 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#13 Postby ouragans » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:10 pm

No BT update since 12z. No models available neither :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#14 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:39 pm

Doesn't have much support from the models but I could see this becoming a TS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:45 pm

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite a dry environment,
slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby ouragans » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:10 am

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite marginal environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#17 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:53 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#18 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:01 am

weeniepatrol wrote:https://imgur.com/4K3mWQd

In addition to the convective bursts getting better organized in the past hour or so, it looks like the broad low-level rotation is also being pulled closer to the convection (it was well to the SE in the afternoon).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#19 Postby ouragans » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:21 am

East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is just a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.

David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris '95, Luis '95, Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#20 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:56 am

Image
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