ATL: IAN - Advisories

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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:56 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AND ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the west coast of Florida
from north of Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the west
coast of Florida to the Anclote River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge,
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Chokoloskee




Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Ian has quickly become better organized
overnight. Banding has increased in all quadrants of the storm, and
the eye has become much better defined in radar data from Grand
Cayman. The improving eye structure was also reported by an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was in the storm
overnight. During a single pass through the northeastern portion
of the storm the plane measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 71
kt and SFMR winds of 57 kt. Given the continued increase in
organization and drop in central pressure on the latest center fix,
the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt, making Ian the
fourth hurricane of the 2022 hurricane season. The latest center
drop from the aircraft supported a minimum pressure of 983 mb.

In addition to the development of an inner core, the upper-level
outflow over the storm has expanded overnight. Ian will be
traversing the warm waters (30 degrees C) of the northwestern
Caribbean and remain within very low shear conditions today. These
very conducive environmental factors along with the improved
structure of the storm are likely to result in rapid intensification
today, and Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it moves
near or over western Cuba tonight. This is supported by the
majority of the intensity guidance, and the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification (RI) Index that gives a 90 percent chance of a
30 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours, and about a 60
percent chance of a 40 kt increase in wind speed during that same
period. Ian is not expected to spend much time over western Cuba,
and additional strengthening is likely over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico on Tuesday. Around 60 hours, a sharp increase in
southwesterly vertical wind shear and a drier mid-level environment
to the northwest of Ian is likely to induce some weakening.
Despite the reduction in intensity, Ian is likely to have an
expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which
will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge
impacts along the west coast of Florida.

The initial motion estimate is 325/12 kt. Ian is expected to turn
northward around the western side of a mid-level ridge during the
next day or so. Later in the period, a broad trough over the
eastern United States is forecast to induce a north-northeastward
motion, however the steering currents are forecast to weaken
around day 3, and a slower forward speed is expected by that time.
Although the track guidance is in good agreement during the first
48 hours, there is still significant spread after that time. The
UKMET and ECWMF are still on the eastern side of the guidance and
show a track very near or over the west-central coast of Florida
while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON, and GFS ensemble mean are on the
western side with a track toward Appalachia Bay. The NHC track
forecast remains close to the TVCA multi-model consensus aid, and
is very similar to the previous official forecast. It should again
be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track
of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame, and users should not
focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts
are possible later this week in west central Florida. Additional
flash and urban flooding, and flooding on rivers across the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out for later
this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late today, and
Ian is forecast to be at major hurricane strength when it is near
western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of this week. Regardless of Ian’s exact
track and intensity, there is a risk of a life-threatening storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this
week. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches have been issued for a
portion of the west coast of Florida and additional watches may be
required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 18.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.7N 83.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 27.7N 83.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 29.2N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 32.0N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:58 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...
...IAN WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS IN
WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 82.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:59 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of Florida has been
extended from Chokoloskee southward to Flamingo.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Seven Mile Bridge eastward to the Channel 5 Bridge in the Middle
Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.


Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this morning. Deep
convection has increased within the inner core during the past
several hours, with an expanding central dense overcast noted in
recent satellite imagery. The inner core structure continues to take
shape in radar data, although the eyewall still has a banded
appearance and remains open on the west side. Dropsonde data from
the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
minimum pressure has gradually fallen to about 980 mb, and the
initial intensity is raised slightly to 70 kt for this advisory.

The intensity of Ian has increased by 30 kt during the past 18 h.
Further rapid intensification (RI) is expected during the next 24-36
h as Ian crosses the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea within a very low vertical wind shear (VWS)
environment. The latest SHIPS-RI probabilities continue to highlight
the high likelihood of this scenario, with a 73 percent chance of a
35-kt wind speed increase in 24 h and a 79 percent chance of a 45-kt
increase in 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, and it shows Ian becoming a major hurricane by the
time it reaches western Cuba. Ian is forecast to reach its peak
intensity in 36 h over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Then,
increasing southwesterly shear by 36-48 h is expected to bring an
end to the intensification phase. The combination of strong VWS and
drier mid-level air will induce weakening thereafter, but Ian is
expected to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes
near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.

Ian continues to move northwestward at 325/11 kt. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected during the next day or so as
the hurricane moves around the western extent of a mid-level ridge.
Then, an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause Ian
to turn more north-northeastward through Thursday. This track brings
the center of Ian close to the west-central coast of Florida during
the middle of the week. An even greater concern is the slower
forward motion that is forecast during this period, as the upper
trough passes north and east of Ian and the steering currents
weaken. This would likely prolong the storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts along the affected portions of the west coast of
Florida, although the roughly shore-parallel track still makes it
difficult to pinpoint exactly what locations will experience the
most severe impacts. The track guidance has come into better
agreement during the first 72 h of the forecast period, and only a
minor eastward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast in line
with the multi-model consensus aids.

The aircraft data indicate that the 34-kt wind radii in the
northeastern quadrant were 20-30 n mi larger than previously
estimated, and this has been reflected in the latest forecast.
Based on these changes, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for
the middle Florida Keys and extended southward along the
southwestern coast of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash
floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western
Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday.
Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves
across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along much of the
Florida west coast, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the
Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are possible in the hurricane watch area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. Residents in this area
should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south
Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday
and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream
flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across
central Florida.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 82.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 24.5N 84.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 28.0N 83.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 29.8N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 32.8N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:56 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:14 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Corrected header and next advisory time

...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Anclote River southward
to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line, including the St. Johns River.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has
been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood.

The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including
Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane
Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to
Indian Pass, and from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound.

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grand Cayman and the Tropical Storm Watch for
Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
* Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound





Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Corrected header

Ian continues to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The
last report from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around 1630 UTC
found 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt. The inner core appears
better organized, and the eyewall structure has greatly improved in
radar imagery from the Cayman Islands. The 18 UTC satellite
classifications from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, but
the continued improvement in satellite structure warrants raising
the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain very favorable for
additional intensification during the next 24 h or so, as Ian moves
over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico while the shear remains quite low. The
NHC intensity forecast calls for Ian to become a major hurricane
before it reaches western Cuba early Tuesday. It is then forecast to
reach its peak intensity over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 36
h. After that, southwesterly shear in association with a deep-layer
trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to significantly increase
over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, which will likely
disrupt the vertical structure and import drier air into its
circulation. Despite these less favorable conditions, Ian is still
forecast to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes
near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.
The NHC intensity forecast agrees well with the latest IVCN and HCCA
aids.

Ian has made an expected turn toward the north-northwest, and its
initial motion is 330/11 kt. The hurricane will move
north-northwestward to northward over the next day or so as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. A turn to the
north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Ian moves near the west
coast of Florida. The slower forward motion is likely to prolong the
storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west
coast of Florida. The latest track guidance has come into better
agreement on this scenario, although it is noted that small
deviations to the shore-parallel track could have large implications
on the impacts at particular locations along the west coast of
Florida. The NHC track forecast has again been adjusted slightly
eastward at 48-72 h, which follows the latest trends in the global
model guidance and lies near but just west of the multi-model
consensus aids.

Based on the latest forecast and timing of expected impacts,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued along the west
coast of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash
floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western
Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday.
Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves
across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay
region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions expected by late Tuesday.

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south
Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday
and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream
flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across
central Florida.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.3N 83.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 27.5N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 28.1N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 30.1N 82.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:00 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE WITH
SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 83.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:05 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Ian continues to become better organized on satellite images with
intense deep convection in its Central Dense Overcast and numerous
surrounding banding features. The overall cloud pattern is quite
symmetric with well-defined upper-level outflow. Observations from
both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure is falling, and the intensity is increased to 90
kt based on a recently reported 700 mb flight-level wind of 101 kt
from the Air Force plane. This is also in agreement with a
subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB.

Aside from its relatively brief time passing over western Cuba, Ian
will be moving over waters of very high oceanic heat content during
the next couple of days. The various Rapid Intensification (RI)
indices show a significant probability of RI and this is reflected
in the short-term official intensity forecast. However, the SHIPS
guidance, which is based on global model predictions, indicates that
a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a substantially
drying of low- to mid-level air will begin in 24-36 hours. The NHC
forecast, like the previous one, shows strengthening to Category 4
intensity in a day or so, followed by gradual weakening. However,
Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near or
above the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus
predictions.

Ian continues its north-northwestward trek at about 340/11 kt. The
hurricane is expected to move north-northwestward to northward
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so,
along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. After around
36 hours, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, since there is
considerable divergence of the track models in the 2-3 day
time frame. The guidance also shows considerable slowing of the
forward speed, due to a weakening of the steering currents, when
Ian approaches the west coast of Florida. This slower forward
motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The official
track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC
prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods
and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba
beginning overnight and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind
damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba.
Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay
region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions expected by late Tuesday.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday.
This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.

5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South
Florida Tuesday, spreading into central and northern Florida
Wednesday and Thursday and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday,
potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding.
Considerable flooding, including significant, prolonged river
flooding, is likely across Central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:37 am

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
430 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER WESTERN
CUBA...

Satellite and radar data indicate that the center of Ian has made
landfall just southwest of the town of La Coloma in the Pinar Del
Rio Province of Cuba at 430 AM EDT...0830 UTC. Maximum sustained
winds at landfall were estimated to be 125 MPH (205 KM/H). This
makes Ian a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale.

SUMMARY OF 430 AM EDT...0830 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 83.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:00 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IAN MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 83.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended southward along the west
coast of Florida to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida
Keys from the Channel 5 Bridge westward to the Seven Mile Bridge.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from the Anclote River northward to the Suwannee River.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued along the east coast of
Florida from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for southeast coast of
Florida from Deerfield Beach northward to Jupiter Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Bonita Beach
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Altamaha Sound to Volusia/Brevard County line
* Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet



Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Ian's satellite presentation continued to improve up until the
center reached the coast of western Cuba around 0830 UTC. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was in the storm until
around 0400 UTC reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 101 kt,
and a peak SFMR wind of 97 kt. During the final pass through the
center, dropsonde data supported a minimum pressure of 960 mb.
Given the continued improvement in satellite imagery, Dvorak data
T-numbers from SAB and TAFB of T5.5 (102 kt), and objective
estimates from UW/CIMSS of T5.4 (100 kt), the intensity was
increased to 100 kt shortly after 0600 UTC. The latest objective
Dvorak estimates have increased to around 110 kt, and that is the
estimated landfall intensity and initial intensity for this
advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft are
scheduled to investigate the storm as it moves off the northern
coast of Cuba this morning.

Ian is expected to spend only spend a few hours over western Cuba,
and little overall change in strength is likely during that time.
The center should emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later
this morning, where warm water and generally low vertical wind shear
conditions are expected to allow for additional intensification, and
the NHC forecast calls for Ian to reach category 4 strength. By 24
to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier
mid-level air are likely to result in some gradual weakening.
However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it
reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is
near the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus
predictions.

Ian has turned northward and is moving 355/10 kt. The hurricane
should continue on a northward motion today around the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a broad trough
over the eastern United States is expected to cause a
north-northeastward turn. There continues to be larger-than-normal
spread in the track guidance by 36-48 hours, however the trend in
the global models has been more southward and eastward over the
last cycle or two. As a result, the NHC track has been adjusted to
the southeast of the previous forecast and it lies just west of the
TVCA multi-model consensus aid. Users are reminded to not focus on
the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are
possible, and wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend
far from the center. The updated forecast track has necessitated
several changes to the warnings and watches across the Florida Keys
and Florida peninsula, including an extension of the Hurricane
Warning southward to Bonita Beach on the west coast.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash
floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western
Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected where the core of
Ian moves across western Cuba this morning.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay
region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions expected by late today.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday.
This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.

5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South
Florida Tuesday, spreading into central to northern Florida
Wednesday and Thursday, and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday,
likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding.
Considerable flooding is expected across Central Florida into
southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with significant,
prolonged river flooding expected across central to northern
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 22.3N 83.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 23.7N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 25.4N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.3N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 29.0N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0600Z 31.7N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:21 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN BATTERING WESTERN CUBA WITH HIGH WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 83.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...240 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:28 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...POWERFUL HURRICANE IAN EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA, GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 83.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the U.S. east coast from
Marineland Florida to the mouth of St. Mary's River including the
St. Johns River, and the Dry Tortugas. Along the Florida west
coast, a Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Suwanee River to
Anclote River.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida from
south of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St.
Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the U.S. east coast has been
extended north to Altamaha Sound Georgia and south to Boca Raton
Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from south of Boca Raton to east
of Flamingo Florida, for the upper Florida Keys and Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to
South Santee River South Carolina.




Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The well-defined eye of Ian emerged off the coast of western Cuba
about an hour ago. Earlier reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ian strengthened up through landfall, with an
estimated pressure of 947 mb over western Cuba. While the hurricane
has filled somewhat due to the passage over Cuba, Air Force Reserve
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data show that it has grown in size. The
initial wind speed is set to 100 kt.

Ian is moving northward, or 005/9 kt. Dropsonde data from the NOAA
G-IV aircraft indicate a potent upper-level trough is over the
western Gulf of Mexico. The strength of this trough, the associated
southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the
keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the
hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is
likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously
anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track
remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. The latest
forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing
landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if
the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance. The rest of
the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as
well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at
longer range.

The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for
restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm
waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear
conditions. While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't
expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before
landfall. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an
extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida.

The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Watch for portions of
extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a watch.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods
and possible mudslides are expected to continue in portions of
western Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected near the
core of Ian.

2. Life-threatening storm surge looks increasingly likely along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect,
with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region.
Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local
officials and follow evacuation orders if made for your area.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Residents
should rush all preparations to completion today.

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south
Florida today, spreading into central and northern Florida tonight
and Wednesday, into the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday,
likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable
flooding is expected across central Florida into southern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina, with widespread, prolonged moderate to
major river flooding expected across central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 83.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 82.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 82.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 28.5N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 33.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:05 am

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...12 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE OF IAN...

Radar imagery from Key West shows that the center of Ian is located
over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hourly updates of Ian's
position will continue as long as the eye is easily trackable by
land-based radar.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 83.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Reinhart
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:15 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...1 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:03 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
300 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...3 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
the minimum pressure has decreased to 952 mb (28.11 in).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 83.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:01 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...4 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

In the past hour, the Cuba Institute of Meteorology located in
Havana reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) with a gust to
87 mph (140 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:01 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 83.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the west coast of
Florida to Chokoloskee. The government of Cuba has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of
Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa. The Tropical Storm
Watch from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, for the Upper Florida
Keys, Florida Bay, and for southeastern Florida from south of Boca
Raton has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch from Marineland to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning. The Storm Surge
Watch from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River has been
discontinued.



Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix
fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains
well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West
suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages.
The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of
earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also
showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the
east side of the cyclone.

Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional
wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast
is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a
ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico.
There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian
remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This
solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast,
and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track
is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker
ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this
track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few
days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the
system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer
range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5
track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant
re-strengthening is not expected at long range.

The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged
upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level
southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation.
While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too
close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the
larger system is able to resist the shear. Additionally, an eyewall
replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although
predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult. The new
forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus.
I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane
or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and
destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents
should heed the advice of local emergency management officials.

The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of
extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the
rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a warning.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the
Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with
the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in
these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and
follow any evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect most of the Florida Peninsula for the
next several days, spreading to the rest of the Southeast U.S. by
Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream
flooding. Considerable flooding is expected with widespread,
prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 24.0N 83.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:58 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
600 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...6 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h). A
WeatherFlow station at the Key West Coast Guard recently reported a
wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 83.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

NNNN
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:59 pm

UAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

During the last hour, the Key West International Airport reported a
sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (114
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 83.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:55 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:00 pm

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
900 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h). A
private weather station near Coco Plum Beach, near Marathon,
recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust to
47 mph (75 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 83.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky
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