ATL: IAN - Advisories

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ATL: IAN - Advisories

#1 Postby AJC3 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 68.6W
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn more westward is forecast over the next next day
or so followed by a turn back to the west-northwest and
northwest by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only slow intensification is forecast over the next day or so,
followed by more significant intensification over the weekend and
early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for TD Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the
following rainfall:

Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao: Additional 1 to 2 inches

Northern Venezuela: 2 to 5 inches

Northern Columbia: 3 to 6 inches

Jamaica: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum up to 12 inches

Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches with
local maximum up to 6 inches

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Cuba over the next several days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products form your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Corrected location of convection in first paragraph.

Convection this morning has increased primarily to the west of the
area of low pressure we have been monitoring in the central
Caribbean Sea, currently passing by to the north of Curacao island.
The system already possessed a well-defined circulation for the last
12 to 18 hours, but it was only overnight that the ongoing
convective activity was able to persist long enough near the center
to be considered a tropical cyclone. The most recent satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB was up to T2.5/35-kt. However the
GOES-16 derived motion winds from the meso sector over the system
have only been 25-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer on the northeastern
periphery of the circulation. In addition, buoy 42059 located to the
northeast of the center has been reporting winds up to only 27-kt.
The combination of all these data provide enough justification to
upgrade this system to Tropical Depression Nine, with the initial
winds set at 30 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance mission will be investigating the system later this
morning to provide more in-situ information of the system's
structure and intensity.

The current motion right now is estimated to be off to the
west-northwest at 290/12 kt. In the short-term, the depression is
forecast to bend back more westward as a narrow east-to-west
oriented mid-level ridge builds in behind the weakness left behind
from Fiona. The current eastward displaced convection may also tug
the broad center in that direction as well. However, after 48 hours,
this ridge will start to decay as a longwave deep-layer trough over
the eastern United States begins to amplify southward. This synoptic
evolution should then allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude,
though the exact timing at which this occurs could be somewhat
related to the vertical depth of the cyclone and how it interacts
with a weak upper-level trough expected to be over the far western
Caribbean in the day 3-4 time-frame. The model guidance early on is
in fairly good agreement, but larger across-track spread begins to
take shape by 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean located
further south and west, and with the ECMWF and its ensemble mean
located further north and east. The initial track forecast has
decided to split the difference between these two model suites, and
lies fairly close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. There is
still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at the
day 4-5 timeframe.

Currently the structure of the depression is quite disheveled, with
the low-level circulation mostly exposed, with deep convective
activity displaced to its west-southeast. This structure is due to
25-30 kt of northeasterly 200-850 mb vertical wind shear caused from
the equatorward outflow channel of Fiona, resulting in significant
upper-level flow over the system. However, as the depression moves
westward, it will move out form under this unfavorable flow and into
a lighter upper-level northeasterlies. However, it may take time for
the low-level center to become better aligned with the convective
activity, and thus only slow intensification is forecast over the
next 24-48 hours. After that period, most of the guidance shows
environmental conditions becoming much more favorable as shear drops
under 10 kt and the cyclone is over the warm 29-30 C waters of the
northwestern Caribbean. Thereafter, potential land interaction with
Cuba, and the potential for an increase in southerly shear at
day 5 may cap off the intensity at the end of the forecast. The
initial NHC forecast shows the depression intensifying up to a
category 2 hurricane by the time it nears the coast of Cuba.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall
and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also
likely to spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands in the coming
days.

2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica and the Cayman
islands as an intensifying tropical storm. Watches and warnings for
these locations may be required in subsequent forecast cycles.

3. This system is forecast to approach western Cuba and enter the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period.
Interests in Cuba and those along the Eastern Gulf Coast of the
United States should closely monitor this system, though at this
juncture forecast uncertainty remains fairly high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.7N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 14.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.5N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 22.6N 82.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR CUBA
120H 28/0600Z 26.0N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:06 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 70.1W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system.


Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The depression remains highly sheared this morning. Visible
satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate the center of the system is still exposed
to the east of the associated deep convection. The center also
appears a bit elongated, with a couple of low-level swirls evident
in satellite imagery that appear to be rotating around a mean
center. The aircraft winds and a blend of the latest satellite
estimates support an initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.

The long-term motion of the depression is still west-northwestward
at 12 kt. The cyclone is expected to move more westward over the
next 24-36 h as a narrow low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north
of the system. Then, an amplifying deep-layer trough over the
eastern U.S. is forecast to weaken the ridge beginning on Sunday,
which should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward
as it approaches western Cuba early next week. There is increased
spread in the guidance for this portion of the track forecast, with
day 5 positions that span from the eastern Gulf to east of the
Florida peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast lies near the
center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the IVCN and
HCCA aids. This prediction is very similar to the previous one,
with only slight westward adjustments at days 3-5 to reflect the
latest model consensus trends.

The moderate to strong deep-layer northeasterly shear over the
cyclone is expected to persist through tonight, so only slight
strengthening is forecast through early Saturday. But once the shear
decreases to less than 10 kt this weekend, more significant
intensification is forecast as the cyclone moves over SSTs in excess
of 30 deg C. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased
from the previous one and explicitly calls for rapid intensification
as the cyclone crosses the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system
is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and Cuba as a
strengthening hurricane, with additional intensification likely once
it emerges over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
In fact, this forecast calls for the system to approach the Florida
peninsula as a major hurricane by day 5, which is supported by the
latest IVCN and HCCA aids.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also
likely to spread into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba in the
coming days.

2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica as a tropical
storm on Sunday and the Cayman islands as a hurricane on Monday.
Watches for these locations may be required later today or on
Saturday.

3. Early next week the system is forecast to move near or over
western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the
Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the
potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force
winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.2N 70.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.8N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.8N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 23.5N 82.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 26.7N 82.1W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:55 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 71.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The organization of the depression has slightly improved since this
morning. The low-level center has been decoupled from the deep
convection for much of the day, but in recent satellite imagery
it appears the center may be drawing closer to a more recent burst
of convective activity. Unfortunately, earlier scatterometer data
missed the center of the cyclone, and the satellite intensity
estimates still range from 25-35 kt. The initial intensity is held
at 30 kt for this advisory, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is on its way to investigate the system this evening.

The system is still moving west-northwestward at 290/13 kt, but it
is expected to turn westward tonight and continue on that heading
through Saturday as a ridge develops to its north. Then, a deep-
layer trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to erode the ridge
into early next week. This should result in a turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest while the cyclone passes near the
Cayman Islands early Monday and approaches western Cuba Monday
night. Once again, the global models have shifted westward this
cycle during this period, and there remains increased track
uncertainty late in the forecast period once the cyclone emerges
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast
has been adjusted westward from 48-120 h, and it lies near or
slightly east of the latest track consensus aids.

Recent satellite trends suggest the cyclone may already be nearing
a lower shear environment, and once that occurs, the atmospheric
and oceanic conditions appear very conducive for strengthening
through early next week. As the cyclone moves within a moist and
unstable environment over sea-surface temperatures greater than 30
deg C, it is forecast to rapidly intensify over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and continue strengthening while it approaches
western Cuba on Monday night. The very warm waters of the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico should allow for more strengthening
once it crosses Cuba, and the NHC forecast once again shows the
system approaching the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by
the middle of next week.

Based on the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
for the Cayman Islands, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for Jamaica.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash
flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain in
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also likely to spread
into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba in the coming days.

2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica, with
tropical storm conditions possible on the island by Sunday. A
Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands, with
hurricane conditions possible by early Monday and tropical storm
conditions possible by late Sunday.

3. Early next week the system is forecast to move near or over
western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the
Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the
potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force
winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 14.7N 71.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.8N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.0N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.8N 79.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 18.8N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.7N 82.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 24.4N 83.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.0N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 71.5W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL STORM IAN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 72.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The system remains sheared from the northeast, with the low-level
circulation evident a bit to the east of the deep convection.
Unfortunately, we didn't have the benefit of a reconnaissance
aircraft this evening to sample the winds, but satellite estimates
did increase a bit. TAFB and SAB provided Dvorak classifications
of T2.0/30 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, while the objective
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are at tropical storm intensity.
Based on a blend of these data, the depression is upgraded to
Tropical Storm Ian with 35-kt winds.

Ian's center appears to have been moving more slowly this evening,
and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 285/10
kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that Ian should turn
westward during the next 12-24 hours while located to the south of
a small mid-level anticyclone centered just north of Hispaniola.
After 24 hours, Ian is expected to begin recurving around the
western side of this high, turning northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, and then northward while crossing Cuba
into the Gulf of Mexico and toward Florida. The track models
agree on this general scenario, and the guidance envelope is
flanked by the major global models, with the ECMWF taking a route
over South Florida and the GFS farther west, remaining over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The new NHC forecast lies between
these two scenarios and is not much different from the previous
forecast. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a similar amount
of spread as the deterministic guidance, but both ensemble means
are close to the multi-model consensus aids, which helps to give
more credence to the position of the official forecast.

The moderate deep-layer shear affecting Ian is forecast to decrease
during the next 6 to 12 hours, and the cyclone will be moving over
the very warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea,
where sea surface temperatures are between 29 and 31 degrees
Celsius. Intensification is expected to be gradual during the next
36 hours while Ian gets better organized in a lower-shear
environment, but after that time, conditions will be conducive for
faster strengthening. In fact, the NHC intensity forecast
explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between days 2 and
3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward
western Cuba. It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from
SHIPS are showing a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds
during the next 3 days, and if that transpires, Ian could be
stronger than what's shown in the official forecast. The storm is
not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening,
and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico while approaching the west coast of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on
Sunday.

3. Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western
Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida
peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential
for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds,
and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.8N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.7N 73.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.6N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 19.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
72H 27/0000Z 21.2N 82.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 24.9N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 82.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER FLORIDA

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:58 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 73.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Ian is still being affected by some north-northeasterly, however
short-wave infrared imagery suggests that the center is located
beneath the eastern edge of the colder convective cloud tops.
Deep convection over the western portion of the circulation has
increased overnight but there is still little banding evident in
conventional satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from
UW-CIMSS have changed little this cycle, but given that the center
is more involved with the deep convection, the initial intensity
has been increased to 40 kt, which is between the objective
estimates and a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 3.0 or 45 kt. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ian this
morning, and should provide additional data on Ian's structure
and intensity.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Ian has turned westward
(270/12 kt) overnight to the south of a narrow ridge centered
near Hispaniola. By early Sunday, Ian is expected to reach the
western portion of the ridge, and the storm should turn
west-northwestward, and then northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, Ian is forecast to
turn north-northwestward and northward around the western portion
of the ridge. This will bring Ian near or over Western Cuba and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Late in the period, the
guidance indicates the storm will begin to recurve toward Florida.
As mentioned before, the track models are in general agreement with
this scenario, however there is a large amount of cross-track
spread at 72 hours and beyond. In fact, the east-west spread in
the guidance at 96 hours is about 180 n mi, with the CTCI and ECMWF
along the eastern side of the envelope, and the GFS, HWRF, and GFS
ensemble mean along the western side. The overall guidance
envelope has shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the NHC
track has been nudged in that direction and lies just east of the
various consensus aids. Given the spread in the guidance, and
the still shifting dynamical models, additional adjustments to the
track forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories. Users are
reminded that the long-term average NHC 4- and 5-day track errors
are around 150 and 200 n mi, respectively.

The shear that has been plaguing Ian is forecast to continue to
decrease over the next day or two while the cyclone moves over the
warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
should allow for strengthening, with steady to rapid
intensification (RI) quite possible once an inner core becomes
established. Although the updated NHC forecast is just shy of
forecasting RI (30 kt or greater increase over 24 h) during any 24-h
period over the next few days, it calls a 45-kt increase in wind
speed between 24 and 72 hours, and Ian is likely to be near major
hurricane intensity when it approaches western Cuba. Since Ian is
not expected to remain over Cuba long, little weakening is expected
due to that land interaction, and the forecast again shows Ian as a
major hurricane over the eastern Gulf when it is approaching the
west coast of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on
Sunday.

3. Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western
Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida
peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential
for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds,
and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.7N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 15.2N 77.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.5N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.2N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 20.2N 82.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 22.0N 83.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 25.5N 83.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.2N 82.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:52 am

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:56 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 75.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Ian still has an asymmetric appearance in satellite imagery this
morning, with most of the deep convection located over the western
portion of the circulation. Tail Doppler radar and dropsonde data
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the cyclone is still
vertically tilted, with the low- to mid-level center displaced to
the south of the surface center. This structure is likely a product
of the northerly shear that has affected the cyclone since genesis.
The aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt and SFMR
retrievals slightly above 35 kt, which supports keeping the initial
intensity at 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is a bit south of due west at 260/13 kt. A
generally westward motion is expected through tonight as the cyclone
is steered by a narrow ridge to its north. Ian is forecast to turn
northwestward on Sunday and north-northwestward on Monday as it
moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea around the periphery of
the ridge. The NHC track forecast during this period has been
adjusted slightly south and west of the previous one, in line with
the track consensus aids. Beyond 72 h, there is still a large amount
of cross-track spread in the guidance as Ian emerges into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida. Hopefully, data
collected from special radiosonde releases beginning later today and
a scheduled NOAA G-IV flight will help resolve the steering flow
around Ian and deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the
eastern U.S. early next week. The guidance envelope has once again
shifted westward this cycle, and the official NHC track forecast has
been adjusted in this direction as well, though it still lies
slightly to the east of the TVCA and HCCA aids. Further adjustments
to the track forecast may be needed given the increased uncertainty
in the day 3-5 period.

Ian is moving into a lower shear environment over very warm waters,
and it should not take long for the system to shed its tilted
structure and develop an inner core. Once that occurs, significant
to rapid intensification is expected while Ian crosses the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The intensity guidance unanimously
supports strengthening during the next several days, and the
SHIPS-RII probabilities indicate a 67 percent chance of a 65-kt
intensity increase in 72 h. Therefore, the NHC track forecast has
been raised from the previous one, showing Ian becoming a hurricane
by late Sunday and approaching western Cuba at or near major
hurricane strength by Monday night. Limited land interaction is
expected as the cyclone quickly passes over western Cuba, and Ian
is forecast to be a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with
rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid
next week.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early
Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on
Sunday.

3. Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba and approach
the west coast of the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane
strength early next week, where there is increasing confidence in
multiple life-threatening hazards: storm surge, hurricane-force
winds and rainfall flooding. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these hazards, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local
officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.4N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 14.5N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.5N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.0N 80.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.8N 82.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 28.6N 82.9W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 75.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has upgraded the Hurricane
Watch to a Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman, and has changed the
Hurricane Watch to a Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and
Cayman Brac.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:10 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Jamaica.





Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this afternoon. The
associated deep convection shows increased signs of organization,
and the deep-layer shear appears to have diminished over the cyclone
based on more extensive upper-level outflow noted in visible
satellite imagery. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
850-mb peak flight level winds of 44 kt and several SFMR retrievals
greater than 40 kt, while dropsonde data suggest the minimum
pressure has not changed much since the previous flight. A blend of
these data support an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

The aircraft data suggest the center could be re-forming slightly
west of previous estimates, so the initial motion is an uncertain
265/14 kt. Ian is expected to move westward through early Sunday
before turning northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a
ridge to the north. A north-northwestward to northward motion is
forecast on Monday and Tuesday as the center of Ian passes near or
over the western tip of Cuba and emerges over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. Overall, the westward trend in the track models
continues, with the latest GFS on the far left side of the guidance
envelope and the ECMWF on the right edge. The track forecast is
still highly uncertain at days 4-5, with the GFS and ECMWF positions
about 200 n mi apart by 96 h. There is significant spread noted even
among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the
north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida.
Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a
NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering
flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be
over the eastern U.S. early next week. The latest NHC track forecast
is once again adjusted westward, and further adjustments may be
needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.

Ian is expected to significantly strengthen over the next few
days as it moves within a low shear environment over SSTs greater
than 30 deg C in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the structure
of the cyclone continues to improve and Ian develops an inner core,
rapid intensification (RI) appears very likely. The SHIPS-RII
probabilities continue to highlight this potential, with a 66
percent chance of a 65-kt intensity increase in 72 h. The NHC
intensity forecast has been raised substantially through 96 h, and
it now shows Ian reaching major hurricane strength by late Monday
before it nears western Cuba. These changes closely follow the IVCN
and HCCA consensus aids, although there remains guidance even higher
than the current forecast. Ian is forecast to remain a major
hurricane as it moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and approaches Florida. Environmental conditions could become less
favorable late in the period due to southerly shear associated with
the aforementioned trough, but Ian is expected to remain a large
and powerful hurricane through the period.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with
rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid
next week.

2. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman beginning early Monday.

3. Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or
over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions
of western Cuba beginning late Monday.

4. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves
generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
middle of next week, but uncertainty in the track forecast is higher
than usual. Regardless of Ian’s exact track, there is a risk of
dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall
along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the
middle of next week, and residents in Florida should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local
officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 14.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 14.6N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 15.7N 80.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.4N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.2N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 20.9N 84.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 23.1N 85.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 28.7N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:53 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER SURVEILLANCE JET FINDS IAN STILL
ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 77.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter surveillance aircraft near
latitude 14.6 North, longitude 77.1 West. Ian is moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest is forecast on Sunday and Monday, followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and
pass near or west of the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early
Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba late Monday and
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ian
is forecast to become a hurricane by late Sunday and a major
hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

Dropsonde data from the NOAA surveillance aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 77.7W
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban
provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa, and a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Cuban provinces of La Habana,
Mayabeque, and Matanzas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 77.7 West. Ian is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday
and north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near
or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near
or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin on
Sunday. Ian is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday and reach
major hurricane strength by late Monday before it reaches western
Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and
Cayman Brac by Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday
night or early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following
rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches

Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches

Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima
up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts
of the Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida
given already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica
overnight and the Cayman Islands on Sunday. Swells will then
spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the
coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

A NOAA G-IV Hurricane Hunter jet flew a surveillance around and
across Ian at high altitude earlier this evening and dropped
several dropsondes near the estimated center. The surface winds
from the instruments suggested that Ian had an elongated surface
circulation from northwest to southeast, but one dropsonde in
particular had a lower pressure than the others, which helped to
located the center. Some new convection has been forming near this
location recently, which provides a little more confidence in the
estimate. The minimum pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, a consensus
of satellite intensity estimates suggests that the maximum winds are
now near 45 kt.

The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Ian expected
to curve around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical
ridge through the 5-day forecast period. There has also been
little change in the individual model solutions--the ECMWF remains
on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and the GFS remains on
the western side. Since there has been no significant change in
the guidance, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one through day 3, although it has been nudged slightly
westward (again) on days 4 and 5 over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in
the direction of the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Ian is now in an environment of low shear and high atmospheric
moisture and over waters of high ocean heat content. Once the
circulation becomes vertically stacked, which should be soon, these
conditions favor rapid intensification (RI) while Ian moves over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Several RI indices support this
scenario, with the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid
Intensification Index (DTOPS) in particular showing a greater than
90 percent chance of RI during the ensuing 48- and 72-hour forecast
periods. The NHC official forecast explicitly shows RI beginning
on Sunday, with Ian predicted to peak at category 4 intensity over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico in about 3 days.

By days 4 and 5, global models are leaning toward a scenario where
Ian enters into an environment of very strong southwesterly shear,
and weakening is therefore expected while Ian approaches the coast
of the Florida panhandle. That said, Ian is likely to have an
expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which
will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge
impacts despite any potential weakening. Users are urged to not
focus on specific forecast intensities in the 4- and 5-day forecasts
and instead focus on the potential hazards Ian may produce across
portions of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash
flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is
possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula
through mid next week. Additional flooding on rivers across
northern Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out.

2. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman beginning early Monday.

3. Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or
over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions
of western Cuba beginning late Monday. Hurricane and tropical
storm watches are now in effect for much of western Cuba.

4. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves
generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
middle of next week, but uncertainty in the long-term track
and intensity forecast is higher than usual. Regardless of Ian’s
exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next
week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials,
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.6N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 82.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WEST TIP OF CUBA
72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.9W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 29/0000Z 27.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 29.6N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:54 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 78.8W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Bands of deep convection have developed primarily over the
northern portion of Ian's circulation overnight, however data from
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show that the low- and
mid-level centers of the tropical storm have not yet become in
better alignment. The Air Force plane essentially performed a
low-level invest-like mission at about 2500 ft and found an
east-southeast to west-northwest elongated area of light
and variable winds that is located to the southeast of the mid-level
center seen in infrared satellite imagery. Given the time spent
searching for the low-level center, the aircraft did not fully
sample the northern portion of the circulation where the strongest
winds are likely located. Therefore, the initial intensity is held
at 45 kt, which is in line with the latest subjective and objective
satellite estimates. It should be noted that the advisory position
is a compromise between the low- and mid-level centers as it is
quite likely that a new low-level center will form closer to the
convection and the mid-level center very soon.

Due to the current lack of center definition, the initial motion
estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/10 kt. The track forecast
philosophy remains unchanged, with Ian forecast to move around the
western periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the western
Atlantic. Ian is forecast to turn northwestward later today,
passing near or southwest of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and
approach western Cuba on Monday night or early Tuesday. While the
models agree on the overall scenario, there are still significant
differences regarding the exact track of the storm, especially
after 72 hours. Even with the addition of the NOAA G-IV synoptic
surveillance dropsonde data and additional upper-air balloon
releases across much of the United States, the spread in the
guidance has not narrowed from before. The UKMET and ECMWF models
continue to hold firm along the eastern side of the guidance and
show a track into west-central Florida, while the GFS and HWRF
remain one the western side, taking the Ian into the central or
western Florida panhandle. The updated NHC track continues to
split these differences and remains closest to the TVCA multi-model
consensus, and the latest GFS ensemble mean. The new track is very
similar to the previous advisory. With the cross-track spreading
remaining between 200-220 n mi at days 4 and 5, it cannot be
overstated that significant uncertainty remains in Ian's long-range
prediction. Another NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is
already underway collecting data around the storm which will
hopefully reduce some of the model spread.

Ian remains within an environment that appears quite conducive for
strengthening. Once the circulation become more vertically
coherent, low vertical wind shear conditions and high ocean heat
content are expected to allow for rapid intensification while Ian
moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The Deterministic to
Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) once
again calls for a 90 percent chance of rapid strengthening during
the following 48- and 72-hour forecast periods. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for rapid intensification to begin later today, and
forecasts Ian to be a major hurricane when it nears western
Cuba in about 48 hours. The latest official intensity forecast
shows a similar peak intensity around 72 h over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico as the previous advisory.

After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is
predicted by the global models, and weakening is forecast to occur
while Ian approaches the Florida coast. Despite the reduction in
intensity, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be
slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce
significant wind and storm surge impacts. Users are urged
to not focus on specific forecast intensities in the 4- and 5-day
forecasts and instead focus on the potential hazards Ian may
produce across portions of Florida.

Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash
flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is
possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula
through mid week. Additional flooding on rivers across northern
Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out.

2. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman beginning early Monday.

3. Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or
over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions
of western Cuba beginning late Monday. Hurricane and tropical
storm watches are now in effect for much of western Cuba.

4. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves
generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
middle of the week, but uncertainty in the long-term track
and intensity forecast is higher than usual. Regardless of Ian’s
exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of
the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials,
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 14.9N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.7N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.1N 83.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 21.0N 84.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 27.5N 84.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 29.8N 83.9W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 79.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...550 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:11 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA WHERE SIGNIFICANT WIND
AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar
del Rio, and Artemisa, and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of La Habana,
Mayabeque, and Matanzas.

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward
motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest
of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early
Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night
and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin later today or tonight. Ian
is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday and reach
major hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it
reaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle and
the southeast United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will
spread to the Cayman Islands later today. Swells will then spread
northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of
Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and
Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart




Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Corrected timing of Ian becoming a hurricane in the intensity
discussion below to tonight or early Monday.

The satellite presentation of Ian is gradually improving this
morning. The overall circulation appears better defined in visible
satellite imagery, and fragmented bands of convection around the
center are showing increased signs of curvature. The low-level
center of Ian also appears better defined in the latest data
collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Although the
vortex is still vertically tilted, tail Doppler radar data suggest
the low- and mid-level centers are beginning to converge. An earlier
center dropsonde indicated the minimum pressure dropped slightly to
1001 mb, but the aircraft winds thus far have not reflected any
strengthening. Therefore, initial intensity for this advisory is
held at 45 kt.

The latest fixes suggest Ian is beginning to make its turn around
the western side of the subtropical ridge, and the initial motion
is west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. A gradual turn to the northwest
is expected later today as the cyclone passes well southwest of
Jamaica, followed by a north-northwestward motion that brings the
center of Ian west of the Cayman Islands on Monday and near or over
western Cuba by early Tuesday. There is relatively high confidence
in this portion of the track forecast. However, once the cyclone
emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the spread in the
track guidance increases at days 3-5. The HWRF and GFS still lie on
the western side of the guidance envelope and show Ian moving over
the central or western Florida panhandle, while the ECMWF and UKMET
models show a track farther east into west-central Florida. Overall,
the NHC track forecast remains near the center of the guidance
envelope and still lies very near the TVCA multi-model consensus.
However, there is still significant uncertainty in the long-range
track forecast of Ian, and future adjustments to this portion of the
forecast will likely be required.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea appear very conducive for significant strengthening.
So once Ian becomes more organized, the high oceanic heat content
and low vertical shear conditions appear likely to support rapid
intensification. The Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical
Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) still shows a greater than 90
percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 2-3 days. The
intensity guidance remains very aggressive with strengthening Ian,
and the NHC forecast reflects this potential. Ian is expected to
become a hurricane by tonight or early Monday, and is forecast to
reach major hurricane strength before it reaches western Cuba. This
forecast lies very near the latest SHIPS guidance and the IVCN aid.
By day 4, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is forecast
by the global models, and this is forecast to induce some weakening
as the vertical structure of the hurricane is disrupted. Despite
this, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be
slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce
significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the
Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle.

Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the
Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional
flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out later this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, where
a hurricane warning is now in effect. Efforts to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of the week, but uncertainty in the
long-term track and intensity forecasts is higher than usual.
Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of
dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall
along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the
middle of the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by
local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.5N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.1N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 25.5N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 28.0N 84.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 30.3N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:12 pm

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

The large convective burst that fired overnight and this morning
appears to have lead to Gaston's center reforming under the deep
convection further to the north and west. This also evident in
GOES-16 GLM lightning data that showed a clear arcing pattern
embedded in the convection prior to the new center becoming evident
on visible satellite imagery. Since then, the convection has been
rapidly decaying, as the storm loses instability support from a
sharp upper-level trough as it moves into its axis. Subjective and
objective Dvorak numbers this morning were still CI 3.0/45-kt from
TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. While scatterometer data largely missed the
circulation earlier, it still showed tropical storm force winds
extending well to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity
is being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory.

Gaston, post reformation, has made its westward turn, with the
latest motion estimate at 270/10 kt. Gaston is currently situated
between an anomalously strong deep-layer ridge to its northeast, and
a more climatological ridge to its southwest. These features are
forecast to merge over the next 24-48 hours to the northwest of
Gaston, and should help steer the storm more to the west-southwest
for the remainder of its lifespan. The guidance this cycle is just a
bit further south and west compared to the previous cycle, and the
latest NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction, following
the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.

Gaston might have had its last convective hurrah this morning, with
the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and HWRF suggesting the storm will struggle to
produce organized convection from here on out. This could be related
to the upper-level flow pattern, where the storm is moving out of an
environment favorable for ascent into an environment favorable for
descent, limiting convection, especially as it continues to traverse
24-25C SSTs. The latest forecast still shows Gaston becoming a
post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, but if the convection does
not return before then, this evolution could occur sooner. The low
should persist another day or two before it opens up into a trough
in the subtropical Atlantic in about 72 hours, in agreement with the
majority of the global model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 39.4N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 39.2N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 38.7N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 27/0000Z 38.0N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 37.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z 36.8N 47.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 80.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:00 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 80.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the lower Florida Keys
from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry
Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West,
including the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 80.3 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward
motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly
slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and
near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will
then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid
strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is forecast to become a
hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on
Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected early Tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower Florida Keys by
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
the Southeast Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Florida Keys, FL including Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Florida Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas
of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

The organization of Ian has not changed much since this morning.
There have been some small bursts of convection closer to the center
of the storm this afternoon, but the activity has not yet led to any
notable changes in its structure. In fact, the most persistent
convection has been in outer rainbands well to the northeast of the
circulation near Jamaica. The SFMR wind data and adjusted
flight-level winds from the earlier reconnaissance flights supported
surface winds of 35-40 kt, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt
for this advisory. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Ian later tonight.

The center of Ian has jogged a bit northward this afternoon, but its
longer-term motion is west-northwestward at 300/10 kt. A generally
northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a
north-northwestward motion on Monday and early Tuesday as it moves
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or over western Cuba.
From there, the track guidance still diverges at days 3-5 as Ian is
forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The
ECMWF and UKMET models still lie on the eastern edge of the guidance
and bring the center of Ian over the coast of west-central Florida,
while the HWRF and HMON models are on the western side of the
envelope and show Ian approaching the central Florida panhandle.
Notably, the GFS has trended slightly eastward for the past few
cycles, which has brought the multi-model consensus aids a bit
eastward as well. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in
this direction, but only on the order of 15-20 n mi in the extended
range. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the track
forecast at longer time ranges, since uncertainty is still high and
future adjustments may be required.

Although the storm has yet to develop an inner core, the conditions
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea appear very likely to support
strengthening once it becomes better organized. Some dry
environmental air may have limited convection today, but the GFS-
and ECMWF-simulated satellite imagery indicate that deep convection
will increase during the diurnal maximum period overnight. Then,
significant strengthening is expected with low deep-layer shear and
high oceanic heat content along the forecast track. There is still
strong support for rapid intensification in the latest intensity
guidance, and the NHC intensity forecast shows Ian becoming a
hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. This forecast
remains close to the IVCN multi-model consensus, with some model
aids including HCCA showing even higher peak intensities. Strong
southwesterly shear develops over Ian by 72 h related to interaction
with an upper-level trough, and the structure of the cyclone could
significantly degrade before landfall given these hostile
conditions. However, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field
and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential
to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions
of the Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with
rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through
the middle of the week. Additional flooding on rivers across
northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out
later this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, and Ian
is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it is
near western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of this week, but uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts remains higher than usual. Regardless of
Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this
week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place. Follow any advice given by local officials
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.2N 80.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.2N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 28.3N 84.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 80.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:55 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 81.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the lower Florida Keys
from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, including the Dry
Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from the
Card Sound Bridge westward to Key west, including the Dry Tortugas,
and for the west coast of Florida from Englewood southward to the
Card Sound Bridge, including Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Englewood southward to Chokoloskee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Englewood southward to the Card Sound
Bridge
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Chokoloskee


Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

The storm has become better organized-looking on satellite imagery,
with strengthening central convection and developing banding
features. Upper-level anticyclonic outflow also appears to be
increasing over the system. Flight-level winds, Doppler radar
velocities, and dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Ian's intensity is now near 55 kt.

Ian has turned toward the northwest and the initial motion estimate
is now 315/11 kt. During the next 48 hours, the tropical cyclone
is expected to turn toward the north as it moves along the western
side of a mid-level high pressure area. Later in the forecast
period, a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United
States is likely to induce a slightly east of northward motion.
However, around 4 days, the steering currents are forecast to
weaken as the trough moves to the east of Ian's longitude. Some
of the guidance model tracks such as that from the GFS have, again,
shifted to the east, mainly after 48 hours. The official track
forecast has been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous one
and is mainly a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions. It
should again be stressed that there is still significant
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time
frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast
at longer time ranges.

Observations from the aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone
is developing an inner core, so significant intensification is
likely to occur during the next couple of days. The SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index indicate a fairly high chance for rapid
strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the official
forecast reflects this likelihood, calling for Ian to become a
major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts
are possible later this week in west central Florida. Additional
flash and urban flooding, and flooding on rivers across the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out for later
this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, and Ian
is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it is
near western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of this week, but uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts remains higher than usual. Regardless of
Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this
week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place. Follow any advice given by local officials
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.3N 81.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.8N 83.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 24.7N 84.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 26.2N 83.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 27.6N 83.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 29.0N 83.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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