EPAC: ORLENE - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#101 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:03 am

TXPZ28 KNES 020541
TCSENP

A. 16E (ORLENE)

B. 02/0530Z

C. 18.5N

D. 106.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN A
DT OF 5.5 AFTER ADDING A 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 5.0 BASED ON RAPID
24-HOUR DEVELOPMENT. PT IS 5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#102 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:41 am

WTPZ31 KNHC 020547
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1200 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

...ORLENE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 106.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings could be required for portions of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 106.8 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
today. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene should pass
near or over Las Islas Marias tonight or Monday morning and reach
the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area later on Monday
or Monday night.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Orlene is
now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast through this
morning, followed by weakening beginning later today and continuing
until landfall.

Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias
tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning early Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early today. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by tonight
or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area today.

RAINFALL: Into Tuesday, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches
of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
southwestern Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California through this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#103 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:27 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2022 Time : 065020 UTC
Lat : 18:40:48 N Lon : 106:55:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 949mb / 110kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +11.1C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#104 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:39 am

Image

We’re probably into Category 4 territory now.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#105 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:57 am

936
WTPZ31 KNHC 020850
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

...ORLENE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 106.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings could be required for portions of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

----

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

Orlene has continued to strengthen rapidly over the past several
hours. On GOES-17 satellite imagery, the system has a
well-defined eye with a temperature near -4 deg C surrounded by
very cold tops to near -80 deg C, particularly over the western
eyewall. Based on objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS, the current
intensity estimate is raised to 115 kt. Subjective Dvorak
estimates are somewhat lower, but these are constrained by the rules
of the technique. Over the 15-h period from 1800 UTC yesterday to
the time of this advisory, the intensity of the hurricane has
increased by an estimated 40 kt. Orlene remains a small tropical
cyclone, with its destructive core covering an area some 20 n mi in
diameter. The system continues to exhibit strong upper-level
outflow with an outflow jet noted over the northern part of the
circulation.

In the short term, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for further strengthening, with moderate vertical shear
prevailing for the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, although
thermodynamic factors should remain conducive, the global models
show a substantial increase in southwesterly vertical shear over
the hurricane. This is also suggested by water vapor imagery which
depicts a broad upper-level trough north of 20N and west of the
Baja California peninsula. Since Orlene is a small hurricane, it
should be especially susceptible to the negative effects of the
increasing shear. Therefore a weakening trend is predicted to
begin after 12 hours. Nonetheless, given Orlene's recent
strengthening , the official intensity forecast is above all of
the model guidance. It is anticipated that the system will be at
or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of mainland
Mexico. After landfall, the cyclone will quickly weaken over the
mountainous terrain.

Orlene continues moving northward or at about 005/6 kt. During
the next 48 hours or so, the hurricane should be steered by the
flow between the mid/upper-level trough near Baja California and
northwestern Mexico and a subtropical ridge to its east. A slight
bend of the heading toward the north-northeast is likely later
today. The official forecast track is very close to the previous
NHC track, and is a little to the east of the dynamical model
consensus. The GFS model is significantly farther to the right and
faster than the other track guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico,
where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 19.0N 106.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 22.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 22.8N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z 23.2N 105.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#106 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:02 am

Image

Assuming eye is WMG given the size and zenith angle, this is a solid T6.5 instantaneously DT wise.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#107 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:46 am

Image
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#108 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:52 am

And just like that, Orlene is collapsing.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#109 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:55 am

this large area of ​​convection is what must have caused Orlene's weakening, because it looks like the cyclone was still gaining strength before then, despite the eye becoming less clear. What caused this thing to form?
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#110 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:04 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:this large area of ​​convection is what must have caused Orlene's weakening, because it looks like the cyclone was still gaining strength before then, despite the eye becoming less clear. What caused this thing to form?

I think an increase in shear is responsible for both the rapid development of that northern band and the obscuring of the eye
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#111 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:01 am

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#112 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:07 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#113 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:12 pm

Recon just made a SE-NW pass: FL winds (700 mb) peaked at 89kt, while SFMRs peaked at 79kt. Extrap pressure was 968 mb. Probably higher winds still yet to be sampled, but it looks like Orlene is decidedly not a major now. We'll see how resilient it is as the shear continues to degrade the inner core, as seen on recent microwave imagery.

Likely was much stronger earlier this morning, but with small systems fast intensity changes are frequent. Had an amazing presentation in the early hours, though; wonder what recon would've found then.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#114 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:30 pm

It's always amazing how small storms can both ramp up and ramp down so quickly.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#115 Postby wx98 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:55 pm

96 kt FL and 92 kt SFMR on NW side. Definitely down to Cat 2 now
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#116 Postby dpep4 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:59 pm

If it reforms after collapsing does it get another name or become New Orlene?
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#117 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:09 pm

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#118 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:19 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 021446
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

The satellite presentation of Orlene has degraded since early this
morning. It appears that an increase in southwestern shear may
have begun, as the eye has become cloud filled. Subjective satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB were T5.5 (102 kt), and objective
estimates range from 112 to 120 kt. Based on the degraded
satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been reduced to
110 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
en route to investigate the hurricane, and should provide
additional information on the strength and size of the wind field
early this afternoon.

Orlene has likely peaked in intensity. Although the sea surface
temperatures remain warm along the forecast track, increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear during the next 24 to 36 hours
is likely to cause the small hurricane to weaken. However, Orlene
is forecast to pass near or over the Islas Marias as a strong
hurricane late tonight or early Monday, and reach the coast of
mainland Mexico has a hurricane by late Monday or Monday night.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and the low-level
center should dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
southwestern Mexico in 60-72 hours.

Orlene has continued to move just east of due north or 005/7 kt.
The hurricane is being steered between a mid-level ridge to its
east and a broad trough over northwestern Mexico. These steering
currents should cause Orlene to bend north-northeastward later
today and it should then continue on that general heading until
landfall in southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is
slightly west of the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models (GFEX). This is a little to the right of
the other simple and corrected consensus models. The GFS remains
significantly farther right and faster than the remainder of the
guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning today. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico,
where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 19.6N 106.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#119 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:20 pm

With undersmapling given small RMW, you could probably justify 95 knots here still.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#120 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:23 pm

Looks like that Orlene is improving hid appearence on VIS again.
She hates the recon
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