EPAC: ORLENE - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#81 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:30 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2022 Time : 235020 UTC
Lat : 18:04:47 N Lon : 107:05:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980mb / 72kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 5.4 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +4.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE


Orlene must be going Pinhole. Raw #T at 6
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#82 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:31 pm

This should be a major hurricane in the next advisory.
 https://twitter.com/____crf/status/1576368675531079682


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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#83 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:32 pm

STORM
01/2330 UTC 18.1N 106.9W T5.0/5.0 ORLENE -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#84 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:36 pm

NHC has issued a special Advisory for Orlene, that is less common for an EPAC system.

Special Advisory products have been issued. Use links below for details.


...ORLENE IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...


6:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 1
Location: 18.2°N 107.1°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#85 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:49 pm

Iceresistance wrote:NHC has issued a special Advisory for Orlene, that is less common for an EPAC system.

Special Advisory products have been issued. Use links below for details.


...ORLENE IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...


6:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 1
Location: 18.2°N 107.1°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph


You missed it as I posted it on page 4. :D
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#86 Postby zeehag » Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:06 pm

Netzero9455 wrote:
zeehag wrote:watching this one closely as my boats life depends on its passing faraway and smoothly.,.... escuinapa will do nicely.



Would it not be possible to move the boat 100 miles north with 2 days advance? I say this because as I understand it you live on your boat full-time, and would be quite worried if I were in that situation. I remember you being very close to Patricia's eyewall at the time of landfall as well 7 years ago, I've been a permanent resident of Puerto Vallarta for the last 20 years almost, so I was very worried at the time because originally the landfall point forecast was much further to the north, and could have represented an enormous disaster, vs. what we actually got which was a constant drizzle for about 2 days and maybe 10mph of wind due to the Sierra Madre mountains to the south basically acting as a wall against the wind, so the only way we get significantly impacted basically is if a hurricane approaches from the southwest with a landfall point of San Blas to Punta Mita, even if it comes in 50 miles to the south we get mostly nothing except for more intense rain because of the aforementioned mountains. Unfortunately all the communites on the Costalegre coast on the other side of the mountains get pounded by at least 1 storm a year passing to the west on the northwestward heading out to sea that many early to mid-season hurricanes take before cold fronts begin to start dropping down to this latitude in October eroding the ridge.


would be safer in water. is on hard in a precarious position. hopefully mazatlan stays out of cone of death. ts isok..we can manage that. the new sewage system in maz has not yet been cane or ts tested.. this willbe interesting. with friends in escuinapa and san blas this is another busy watch.
and i was in patricias eyewall and eyeball in barra de navidad's resort marina. luckily stayed in the hotel and bailed bilges du8ring eye of storm.
that was a busy storm.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#87 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:23 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:This should be a major hurricane in the next advisory.
https://twitter.com/____crf/status/1576368675531079682

 https://twitter.com/cyanide_bot/status/1576372997882925058


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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#88 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:32 pm

IR satellite loops suggest an EWRC is starting. Combined with the increase in shear starting in the next 12 hours or so, Orlene will probably be in shambles by the time recon arrives.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#89 Postby skyline385 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:08 pm

Continuing to RI, eye seems to be contracting slightly and CBs are wrapping up around the NW eyewall

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#90 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:07 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ORLENE STILL STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES



Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Orlene is a rapidly strengthening hurricane. The intensity of the
cyclone has increased by 35 kt in the past 18 h, and the satellite
presentation of Orlene has continued to improve this evening. A warm
and well-defined eye with a diameter of 10-15 n mi is evident in
GOES-17 satellite imagery, and the eyewall is comprised of a solid
ring of deep convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -70
degrees Celsius. The subjective current intensity estimates have
rapidly increased this evening, and SAB and TAFB provided consensus
T5.0/90 kt Dvorak estimates at 00 UTC. Objective satellite estimates
have continued to rise since then, and the initial intensity is set
at 95 kt for this advisory.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
strengthening during the next 12 h or so, while the hurricane moves
within a low deep-layer shear environment and over very warm SSTs.
The latest NHC intensity forecast shows Orlene peaking as a major
hurricane on Sunday. Then, the southwesterly shear is expected
to increase over Orlene, and the small hurricane should be
especially susceptible to the negative effects of the increasing
shear. Therefore, the forecast shows steady weakening beginning
Sunday night and continuing through landfall. It appears that Orlene
will be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of
mainland Mexico by late Monday, but it should quickly weaken
after landfall as it moves over the mountainous terrain.

The hurricane is moving just east of due north (005 degrees) at 4
kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged, as an upper-level
trough over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula is
expected to cause Orlene to move north-northeastward during the next
couple of days as it approaches the coast of mainland Mexico. The
GFS remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, but this
solution appears reasonable given the stronger hurricane is more
likely to feel the steering effects of the deep-layer trough.
Therefore, the NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly eastward
this cycle, and it generally lies to the east of the multi-model
consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. A
Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of west-central
mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday
with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch has been extended southward along the west-central
coast of Mexico, where hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday
or early Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 18.4N 106.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 19.1N 106.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 20.3N 106.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 21.5N 106.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 22.5N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 23.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#91 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:18 pm

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#92 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:33 pm

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#93 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:50 pm

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#94 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:57 pm


Clearly a major here :)
Hopefully the Recon will find Orlene at peak intensity
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#95 Postby skyline385 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:12 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:

Clearly a major here :)
Hopefully the Recon will find Orlene at peak intensity

Recon isn’t leaving for another 12 hours iirc
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#96 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:34 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2022 Time : 035020 UTC
Lat : 18:22:12 N Lon : 106:59:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 959mb / 100kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.4 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#97 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:44 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:If the shear doesn't kick in sooner than forecast, it's well on jts way to MH status. Might be the strongest system of the EPAC season when it's done.


Did you forget about Darby?

Might get stronger than Darby due to its size and proximity to warmer waters.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#98 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:24 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2022 Time : 045020 UTC
Lat : 18:28:47 N Lon : 107:00:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 959mb / 100kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.5 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.2C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#99 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:43 am

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#100 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:59 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2022 Time : 052020 UTC
Lat : 18:32:24 N Lon : 106:57:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 959mb / 100kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.7 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +13.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : EYE
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