EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2022100300, , BEST, 0, 97N, 490W, 25, 1012, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat

[zhukm29]

ASCAT doing what ASCAT does best Probably the cleanest miss I've seen this year, considering how large the system is!

[ConvergenceZone]

Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.

It will only be a long thread if it ends up being a USA threat, otherwise, probably a fairly short thread..........Not to mention when you have such a monster that Ian was, it takes alot out of people, so there's that factor as well.......

[Nimbus]

The ULL to the systems NW may shred it so we have just a short term threat.
Models don't seem to agree on that though and they should know.

[NotSparta]

It really has been a while since we had that kind of system before (last real one was Felix back in 2007). Who knows what this thing will do...

This one won't be that kind either, would develop/strengthen too late

Do you think this wave has much of a chance at all? Hardly any model support but that upper level environment looks pretty favorable.

Probably has a decent chance. Strong wave moving into the Caribbean in October, and eventually finding favorable conditions there? Pretty common way to get development. Meteorology > modelology. Not to say it can't not develop, but you shouldn't throw out the potential of development just because models aren't enthused

[Sailingtime]

Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.

It will only be a long thread if it ends up being a USA threat, otherwise, probably a fairly short thread..........Not to mention when you have such a monster that Ian was, it takes alot out of people, so there's that factor as well.......

I'm in central Florida and came out pretty much OK with Ian. That said, I'm drained from both tracking the storm, preparing for the storm, going through the storm and cleaning up after the storm. Like most on here, I enjoy keeping tabs and tracking the tropics but Ian when it comes knocking on your neighborhood it's an entirely different experience. Mark me down as hoping for a peaceful October and November.

[tropicwatch]

Currently the ULL is probably helping 91L's outflow.

[Category5Kaiju]

This one won't be that kind either, would develop/strengthen too late

Do you think this wave has much of a chance at all? Hardly any model support but that upper level environment looks pretty favorable.

Probably has a decent chance. Strong wave moving into the Caribbean in October, and eventually finding favorable conditions there? Pretty common way to get development. Meteorology > modelology. Not to say it can't not develop, but you shouldn't throw out the potential of development just because models aren't enthused

Not to mention for some reason, seems like this year models aren't always very reliable long-range (as we saw with systems like Fiona), they're mainly latching onto development in the mid-range instead

[AnnularCane]

ASCAT doing what ASCAT does best Probably the cleanest miss I've seen this year, considering how large the system is!

https://i.ibb.co/0cDfVmL/91-L-ASCAT.png

Oh come on, that had to be deliberate.

[zhukm29]

ASCAT doing what ASCAT does best Probably the cleanest miss I've seen this year, considering how large the system is!

https://i.ibb.co/0cDfVmL/91-L-ASCAT.png

Oh come on, that had to be deliberate.

Well, luckily we have two scatterometers up there, so if one missed, then surely the other one wouldn't miss as well... especially given how much everyone is anticipating ASCAT for this system...

Even if we don't get it head on, we could at least hope for a half pass—

[Sciencerocks]

[LarryWx]

Not looking like a Conus problem at the moment a track towards Central America seems likely.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1576658679310393345?s=46&t=3CQs_axzxPQqgifvOOLE2A

I've been burned on long-range synoptic forecasts enough to know not to play this game. It's October, a digging trough is the usual climatological pattern here. Watch for the models to trend north in the long-range with time.

We're still far enough out for climo/history to be a somewhat useful tool to consider. I looked at all TC geneses Oct 1-10 since 1851. I focused on the CONUS. Before I give the track stats, here's the overall picture via the map for 1851-2015 tracks for geneses Oct 1-10:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

Here are the stats:

First, I looked at geneses in the central to western Caribbean. I counted 44. Out of these 44, 31 or 70% later landfalled on the CONUS. Only 7 (16%) buried themselves into CA and only 5 (11%) recurved E of the CONUS. There was one (2%) that dissipated in the GOM.

- 21 of these 31 landfalls hit in FL and 6 hit in LA
- 19 of these 31 landfalls hit as a H
- 5 of these 19 H landfalls hit as a MH
- 3 of these 31 landfalls were during the eight 3rd year cold ENSO analog seasons:
- Isabel of 1985: hit FL/GA border as a TS
- #5 of 1910: hit SW FL as a H
- #5 of 1894: hit FL Panhandle as a H

Second, I looked at the 7 geneses between the LAs and 50W that moved westward well into the Caribbean:
- 2 of those 7 (29%) landfalled on the CONUS: one was Hazel of 1954 as a MH at the SC/NC border and the other was #6 of 1879 that hit the FL Panhandle as a TS
- 2 of those 7 (29%) buried themselves into CA
- 2 recurved barely east of the CONUS and 1 dissipated in the Caribbean

So, out of the grand total of 51 looked at, only 9 (18%) buried themselves into CA while 33 (65%) or 3.6 times as many hit the CONUS (majority as a H). The main point is that IF there is going to be TCG from this, we shouldn't assume at this very early stage that it would bury itself in CA regardless of what the model consensus may suggest. The models of course may still be right as 18% is not a tiny percent, but history says don't bet the farm on that this early!

To look at it in another way: had today's models been available, how many of the 42 TCs that didn't get buried in CA would have shown burial in CA at this early stage?

[aspen]

Currently the ULL is probably helping 91L's outflow.

https://tropicwatch.info/shear190010022022.jpg

That ULL isn’t going to budge during the next several days, and once 91L reaches the Lesser Antilles, it’ll start getting sheared. This is likely why model support is so mixed — some kill off 91L entirely, others have it survive. I don’t know whether the environment becomes better further west.

[chris_fit]

Doesn't look too bad this morning.

[chris_fit]

No Change in TWO

2. East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
become slightly better organized since yesterday. Some further
development of the wave is possible, and a tropical depression
could form within the next few days while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the
eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. Interests in the Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[WiscoWx02]

This one won't be that kind either, would develop/strengthen too late

Do you think this wave has much of a chance at all? Hardly any model support but that upper level environment looks pretty favorable.

Probably has a decent chance. Strong wave moving into the Caribbean in October, and eventually finding favorable conditions there? Pretty common way to get development. Meteorology > modelology. Not to say it can't not develop, but you shouldn't throw out the potential of development just because models aren't enthused

Oh for sure…I remember models dropping Zeta in 2020 and we all remember how that went. I incorrectly interpreted your last post, I thought you were saying it probably wasn’t going to develop and was sort of curious why you thought why, opps Thank you!!!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1576889627847557121

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT was going to make a direct hit, but the data failed.

Why does everything go wrong with ASCAT when we need it the most!?

EDIT: ASCAT is working, except the data is delayed.

[MGC]

Got some spin down there this morning. Need a bit more convection to get the ball rolling. ULL to the north is not causing much shear over the system...just a little dry air. Something to keep an eye on.....MGC

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT has found 25 knot barbs to the east, but may have missed the LLC.