EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#181 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:52 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Convection coming up on the north end of the wave axis.
The real heavy convection is firing along the east side of the wave axis and outlines the infeed of high TPW air flowing in from the Amazon.
The TPW air is more at the boundary layer and a little above.
Convective debris from pop ups over South America is also beginning to flow in which is mostly at mid levels in the troposphere.



Barbados radar showing the circ coming into view.. def NW inflow into the convection. the llc is growing while the old dies and stretches out.


Yup, good call Aric. Looks like its picking up some helicity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#182 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:54 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Twelve, located a few hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands.

East of the Windward Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Earlier data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters indicated that the system did not yet possess a well-defined
circulation center, with the majority of the shower and thunderstorm
activity displaced to the southeast of the broader rotation.
However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
next several days if the system remains over open waters while
moving westward at about 15 mph through the Windward Islands and
into the Caribbean Sea. Another Air Force Reconnaissance mission is
scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow morning, if necessary.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the Windward
Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands
during the next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in
addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be
found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#183 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:01 pm

Convection over South America is really picking up.
Not afternoon popups anymore.
Indicates increasing infeed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#184 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:12 pm

PV streamer is gone over this.
Clear sailing into the Carib
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#185 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:50 pm

Very impressive tonight. With all the persistent convection, including numerous bursts in the drier NW part of the disturbance, maybe tonight's recon will find a better organized system. It's possible 91L enters the Caribbean as a developed TC instead of an open wave at this rate.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#186 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:59 pm

AL, 91, 2022100500, , BEST, 0, 113N, 581W, 30, 1007, DB


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#187 Postby zzzh » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:28 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#188 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:40 pm

:lol:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#189 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:58 pm

Image

This system reminds me of Ian!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#190 Postby Teban54 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:51 pm

Looks a lot further south than I expected.

IMO, a good analog is Hurricane Joan from 1988, one of the strong analog years for this season:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#191 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 05, 2022 12:02 am

Teban54 wrote:Looks a lot further south than I expected.

IMO, a good analog is Hurricane Joan from 1988, one of the strong analog years for this season:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7b/Joan-Miriam_1988_track.png


That seems like a good comparison. If it is that far south, it's likely heading for Honduras or Nicaragua.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#192 Postby REDHurricane » Wed Oct 05, 2022 12:06 am

Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2462/OKanrT.gif

This system reminds me of Ian!


The Atlantic setup kinda looks like Hermine and Ian all over again, just shifted more to the west
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#193 Postby MarioProtVI » Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:12 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Looks a lot further south than I expected.

IMO, a good analog is Hurricane Joan from 1988, one of the strong analog years for this season:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7b/Joan-Miriam_1988_track.png


That seems like a good comparison. If it is that far south, it's likely heading for Honduras or Nicaragua.

I would say Bonnie from June is also a good analog. If it gets too close to SA it might cause it to struggle closing off like Bonnie did until only a day before moving inland.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#194 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:13 am

Much stronger on radar this morning.
Wave axis appears to have shifted significantly south.
Looks like chances for it getting into the GoM have dropped.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#195 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:43 am

MarioProtVI wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Looks a lot further south than I expected.

IMO, a good analog is Hurricane Joan from 1988, one of the strong analog years for this season:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7b/Joan-Miriam_1988_track.png


That seems like a good comparison. If it is that far south, it's likely heading for Honduras or Nicaragua.

I would say Bonnie from June is also a good analog. If it gets too close to SA it might cause it to struggle closing off like Bonnie did until only a day before moving inland.

So far it’s looking like Bonnie, unless it jumps a bit further north and is able to close off then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#196 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:13 am

Just a wave, still. It's going to be skirting the coast of South America until Saturday afternoon, which is when I have it becoming a TD/TS. It will be hard for it to develop with the southern half over land. Nicaragua is the target. Careful using radar to find a surface circulation, as the farther out from the radar site, the higher up you're looking for a circulation. It does remind me of Joan of 1988 or Cesar of 1996.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#197 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:52 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located near the southern Windward
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Radar imagery from Barbados and surface
observations indicate that the system has not become any better
organized since yesterday. However, upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the next several days if the system remains
over water while moving generally westward at about 15 mph over
the southeastern and southern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force
reconnaissance mission is currently en route to investigate the
system this morning.

1. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the
ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be
found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#198 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:16 am

kevin wrote:Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.


Is still early to the end but I can tell you that it looks like much less long than the 308 pages of Ian because it will not be a long duration cyclone and no U.S tracking.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#199 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:19 am

This looks more and more like a Bonnie repeat. It’s too far south to become a TC until it only has 24-36 hours before landfall, so anything on the level of 2020’s late season Caribbean monsters is probably unlikely, unless this somehow gets a little further north in the coming days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#200 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:48 am

HH found wind shift north of Trinidad.
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