EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#401 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:22 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:


How does this compare to Iota? Very similar starting positions location-wise, but in terms of structure, I am not quite sure


Looking at comparable timeframes before Nicaraguan landfall (now less than 48 hours), Iota had just become a rapidly strengthening hurricane with model consensus later making it a MH. Fortunately for the Nicaraguan E coast, this looks nothing like that insane borderline cat 5 strength although it is the very heavy rain threat that is the biggest threat for CA. I was just looking back at model consensus total rainfall predictions for CA overall from iota and Eta and they were a good bit higher at this point for much of the area other than maybe near the Nicaraguan E coast vs what we're seeing for Julia. Part of the reason for that is the very slow Eta movement. Even Iota was moving somewhat more slowly than Julia is forecasted to move once there. So, I'm hoping the flooding won't be as bad, especially in NW Honduras, but we'll see. All precautions should be taken, including evacuations of low areas.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#402 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:27 pm

I highly doubt this has time to be anywhere close to an Eta/Iota repeat. I also highly doubt a Bonnie repeat. I think we could be looking at around a 80-90kt Cat 1-2 landfall. 100kts is probably the upper bound here unless it really tries to pull a fast one. It doesn't have too much time, but it certainly has enough to become a decent system. Hopefully CA is ready
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#403 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:38 pm

If I had a nickel for every WCar storm this year that started out as a TS with outer bands/convection but an exposed LLC in the middle, I’d have two nickels, which isn’t a lot but it’s weird that it’s happened twice.

After Ian pulled a fast one and made landfall as a Cat 3 or low Cat 4 just ~30-36 hours after looking like a spilt pile of popcorn, I’m not underestimating systems with this structure again.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#404 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:40 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:I highly doubt this has time to be anywhere close to an Eta/Iota repeat. I also highly doubt a Bonnie repeat. I think we could be looking at around a 80-90kt Cat 1-2 landfall. 100kts is probably the upper bound here unless it really tries to pull a fast one. It doesn't have too much time, but it certainly has enough to become a decent system. Hopefully CA is ready

Yeah I’m generally thinking the same. The big question with these Caribbean systems is how quickly they can get their structure sorted out. With how much moisture abundance and favorable conditions this region sees, we get these systems with large networks of sprawling bands, in contrast to the MDR or subtropics majors where their inflow extremities are more limited. Makes it take longer for them to come together, but if they do, it makes the ceiling that much higher. Julia’s ceiling, as others have noted, is a race against the clock
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#405 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:51 pm

Just for reference here the intensity of all Atlantic TDs as of October 2020, this was posted during Delta's incredible ERI (source = https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1313590238288068608). Hurricane Delta intensified 45 kt in 12 hours and deepened 53 mb in the same time. Wilma intensified 75 kt in 12 hours and depened 83 mb in those 12 hours. While neither of those hurricanes intensified at those rates for a very long time, it does show how crazy the WCar can be. Hurricane Wilma is also the fastest Atlantic hurricane on record to go from 65 kt to a cat 5, only 18 hours. Depending on how fast Julia organizes itself it could be a relatively weak cat 1, a strong cat 2/3 or potentially even worse.

Also, does anyone know which hurricane is the one that touches Wilma's line at +54 hours and peaks at 150 kt? It seems like for a while that one intensified even faster than Wilma in terms of wind speed and would thus be the Atlantic recordholder for windspeed intensification. But I can't think of a storm matching that line.

Image
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#406 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:10 pm

kevin wrote:Just for reference here the intensity of all Atlantic TDs as of October 2020, this was posted during Delta's incredible ERI (source = https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1313590238288068608). Hurricane Delta intensified 45 kt in 12 hours and deepened 53 mb in the same time. Wilma intensified 75 kt in 12 hours and depened 83 mb in those 12 hours. While neither of those hurricanes intensified at those rates for a very long time, it does show how crazy the WCar can be. Hurricane Wilma is also the fastest Atlantic hurricane on record to go from 65 kt to a cat 5, only 18 hours. Depending on how fast Julia organizes itself it could be a relatively weak cat 1, a strong cat 2/3 or potentially even worse.

Also, does anyone know which hurricane is the one that touches Wilma's line at +54 hours and peaks at 150 kt? It seems like for a while that one intensified even faster than Wilma in terms of wind speed and would thus be the Atlantic recordholder for windspeed intensification. But I can't think of a storm matching that line.

https://i.imgur.com/006sstf.jpg


Don’t quote me on this but that could be Maria 2017
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#407 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:44 pm

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#409 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:46 pm

Low level center just got yanked northeast into that area of developing convection.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#410 Postby cainjamin » Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:56 pm

kevin wrote:Just for reference here the intensity of all Atlantic TDs as of October 2020, this was posted during Delta's incredible ERI (source = https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1313590238288068608). Hurricane Delta intensified 45 kt in 12 hours and deepened 53 mb in the same time. Wilma intensified 75 kt in 12 hours and depened 83 mb in those 12 hours. While neither of those hurricanes intensified at those rates for a very long time, it does show how crazy the WCar can be. Hurricane Wilma is also the fastest Atlantic hurricane on record to go from 65 kt to a cat 5, only 18 hours. Depending on how fast Julia organizes itself it could be a relatively weak cat 1, a strong cat 2/3 or potentially even worse.

Also, does anyone know which hurricane is the one that touches Wilma's line at +54 hours and peaks at 150 kt? It seems like for a while that one intensified even faster than Wilma in terms of wind speed and would thus be the Atlantic recordholder for windspeed intensification. But I can't think of a storm matching that line.


I think it might be Felix 2007. It intensified by 85kt in 24hrs (and a crazy 115kt in 48hrs!)
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#411 Postby underthwx » Fri Oct 07, 2022 3:42 pm

kevin wrote:Just for reference here the intensity of all Atlantic TDs as of October 2020, this was posted during Delta's incredible ERI (source = https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1313590238288068608). Hurricane Delta intensified 45 kt in 12 hours and deepened 53 mb in the same time. Wilma intensified 75 kt in 12 hours and depened 83 mb in those 12 hours. While neither of those hurricanes intensified at those rates for a very long time, it does show how crazy the WCar can be. Hurricane Wilma is also the fastest Atlantic hurricane on record to go from 65 kt to a cat 5, only 18 hours. Depending on how fast Julia organizes itself it could be a relatively weak cat 1, a strong cat 2/3 or potentially even worse.

Also, does anyone know which hurricane is the one that touches Wilma's line at +54 hours and peaks at 150 kt? It seems like for a while that one intensified even faster than Wilma in terms of wind speed and would thus be the Atlantic recordholder for windspeed intensification. But I can't think of a storm matching that line.

https://i.imgur.com/006sstf.jpg


Cool post Kevin, I learn something new everyday right here on 2K!....that's good stuff man...
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#412 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 07, 2022 4:16 pm

A couple of massive hot towers are going off over or near the LLC. This could be the start of Julia building an actual CDO, now that the bit of shear (only in one small section of the atmosphere) is lessening as the flow becomes aligned with the storm's motion. If a CDO does develop, we could see a quickly developing core overnight into tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#413 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 07, 2022 4:25 pm

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If Josh Morgerman aka iCyclone can be in position to intercept Julia, that would be an accomplishment! :D
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#414 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Oct 07, 2022 4:36 pm

Impressive structure. Reminds me a lot of Ian. Fortunately, unlike Ian, this one will run itself into the ground before it ever gets a chance to get nearly as strong.

Cat 2 peak seems possible.

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#415 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:26 pm

Below 1000 mbs so far.

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#416 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:35 pm

Can't post a gif right now, but Julia is looking impressively pink on IR.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#417 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:35 pm

Looks like recon is showing that the center has reformed farther south?
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#418 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:44 pm

50 knot flight level winds and 40 knot SFMR. I think a fair estimate is 45 knots and a SFMR of 999mb.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#419 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:45 pm

Got past the Columbian mountains. Now pulling in high TPW air from EPAC which is crossing over Panama.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#420 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:49 pm

Interesting that the lowest pressure is not in the center
:?:
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