EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#321 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:46 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I think the MLC is overland Venezuela; the LLC is displaced to the north. Thus the appearance that the storm is overland currently. Not well stacked.

We see this all the time where the displaced deep convection swirls as it dies. Then new convection forms closer to the llc, which is currently occurring. Too much emphasis put on IR during the daytime
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#322 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:52 am

This is going to have about 48 hours over the SW Caribbean with prime conditions before landfall. Never trust a storm in the SW Carib in Oct. Wouldn't surprise me at all if this bombs out into a major. Not saying it's going to happen, but I think it's a possibility.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#323 Postby Kazmit » Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:15 am

It’s gonna come pretty close to passing over the tallest mountain range in Venezuela.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#324 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:18 am

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#325 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:45 am



Yeah, pretty bad situation here today. Riverine flood alert has been upgraded to orange and multiple schools, institutions and workplaces are either closing or going online for the remainder of the week. At least one more person has been swept away by floodwater and they're still missing.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#326 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:53 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone
Thirteen, located over the south-central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen are
issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#327 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:25 pm

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#328 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:42 pm

A. 13L (NONAME)

B. 06/1730Z

C. 11.7N

D. 68.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...NO DISCERNIBLE CENTER AT PRESENT. POSITION BASED LOOSELY
ON 1522Z GMI DATA. SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#329 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:28 pm

I think PTC13 is trying to refocus its center offshore near the ABC islands, but it’s hard to tell just based on visible imagery alone.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#330 Postby Landy » Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:48 pm

aspen wrote:I think PTC13 is trying to refocus its center offshore near the ABC islands, but it’s hard to tell just based on visible imagery alone.


Latest discussion seems to lean towards the same idea. Excerpt:
Radar imagery from Curacao also suggests there
could be a better-defined center trying to form just to the south
of Bonaire and Curacao, but there are not enough nearby surface
observations to confirm that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#331 Postby Nuno » Thu Oct 06, 2022 4:01 pm

It appears being so close to Venezuela has only helped tighten up the storm, much like we see when storms zig zag around the Antilles sometimes.

wxman57 wrote:Still just a disturbance. Disturbances/waves can produce tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain. The Caribbean has been fortunate this season that so few waves have traversed the area. Development likely in 24-36 hrs after clearing Venezuela. Could be a hurricane prior to reaching Nicaragua Sunday evening. Normally, an "High" chance of development would result in the NHC issuing PTC advisories. However, I'm not sure it issues watches for the A-B-C Islands or Venezuela. If not, then no PTC advisory until tomorrow afternoon when it's within 48 hrs of Nicaragua. Doesn't really make any difference if/when the NHC issues advisories, does it?


Um...yes it matters? Given that the NHC is in the field of public safety and have just come off major criticism after the way watches and warnings were handled after Ian? Hopefully proto Julia isn't anywhere near that kind of storm.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#332 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Oct 06, 2022 4:10 pm

New forecast bumps the peak up a slightly to 75kts. However, if it were to follow this forecast exactly, landfall intensity would very likely be a bit higher than that, since there's still quite of bit of space between the 75kt point and landfall. Not looking good for CA, hopefully everyone there is preparing for a decently strong storm
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#333 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 06, 2022 4:11 pm

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#334 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 06, 2022 4:16 pm

Hurricane Hunters are on the way now.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#335 Postby Teban54 » Thu Oct 06, 2022 5:16 pm

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#336 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Oct 06, 2022 5:17 pm

Yeah we do not need another Eta/Iota. It spells trouble for sure. There is a very good chance this becomes a Major.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#337 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 06, 2022 5:21 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Yeah we do not need another Eta/Iota. It spells trouble for sure. There is a very good chance this becomes a Major.


I know Joan 1988 was also mentioned as a potential analog. Like Eta and Iota, it bombed out. If it stays north of the tip of Honduras, it will have even more time.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#338 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 06, 2022 5:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Yeah we do not need another Eta/Iota. It spells trouble for sure. There is a very good chance this becomes a Major.


I know Joan 1988 was also mentioned as a potential analog. Like Eta and Iota, it bombed out. If it stays north of the tip of Honduras, it will have even more time.

It seems most likely that PTC13 will go south of the tip of Nicaragua/Honduras. Some models have been showing a bit of a SW dip as it nears land, similar to Eta and Bonnie.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#339 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 06, 2022 5:41 pm

aspen wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Yeah we do not need another Eta/Iota. It spells trouble for sure. There is a very good chance this becomes a Major.


I know Joan 1988 was also mentioned as a potential analog. Like Eta and Iota, it bombed out. If it stays north of the tip of Honduras, it will have even more time.

It seems most likely that PTC13 will go south of the tip of Nicaragua/Honduras. Some models have been showing a bit of a SW dip as it nears land, similar to Eta and Bonnie.


Doesn't look like that dip is as pronounced as it use to be. The TVCN also is creeping northward.

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#340 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:39 pm

There is another LL vort NE of Panama.
This will interact with 13L causing it to gain a NW movement.
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