EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Looks like chances are increasing that something in the GoM may come out of this.

Why are you saying this?

[GCANE]

Looks like chances are increasing that something in the GoM may come out of this.

Why are you saying this?

GFS is starting to show a curve northward in the west Carib.
Right now has it crossing Yucatan into BoC.
If further GFS runs show an increase in recurve north, this could miss the Yucatan all together.

[MississippiWx]

91L will likely struggle with northerly and northwesterly shear until it reaches the Central and Western Caribbean. The GFS is showing a massive upper level anticyclone in the Western Caribbean by that time. Conditions could be ripe for quick intensification there if we have a strong disturbance. As Wxman said, the Gulf looks closed for business. Huge area of very high shear at the base of troughs over the US and where the base of the trough meets the upper level anticyclone.

[GCANE]

Looks like by Friday, the ULL will be NE of the Virgin Islands and 91L will be south of the islands.
Great position for intensification.
Right now, GFS has it slamming into Belize as a potent TC.
A midwest trough will be the player for steering this.

[cycloneye]

Partial hit.

[cycloneye]

The reminder.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1577304282948407296

[cheezyWXguy]

Partial hit.

https://i.imgur.com/IF2AbdB.jpg

Hmm, the llc looks closed to me on vis, but clearly isn’t on ascat. Is it too small or moving too fast for ascat to pick up the southern side? Too weak? Or just not closed from a ground relative perspective?

[Landy]

Perhaps we see a decent chance rise this afternoon. Pretty bullish messaging from Papin, but based on current imagery it's understandable why.
 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1577311450040877059

[tropicwatch]

Partial hit.

https://i.imgur.com/IF2AbdB.jpg

Some pretty nifty winds in it.

[cycloneye]

Comming from him is big as he is mainly conservative about this.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1577314481004109824

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

East of the Windward Islands:
Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived
wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be
forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave
is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions
could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while
moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[MetroMike]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

East of the Windward Islands:
Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived
wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be
forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave
is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions
could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while
moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

That escalated quickly

[GCANE]

Some convection firing in the naked swirl

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1577334700708106241

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherWorks/status/1577332688830210048

[GCANE]

TPW is converging quickly in the circulation.
Looks like its getting some moisture infeed from the Amazon

[GCANE]

Firing on a strong gradient shear axis.
This could ramp quickly as it moves further west.

[GCANE]

The ULL is tightening up.
Could see some outflow from 91L develop quickly once convection develops over the surface low and moves west

[GCANE]

IR satellite analysis looks like a TD