EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Looks like chances are increasing that something in the GoM may come out of this.

Why are you saying this?

GFS is starting to show a curve northward in the west Carib.
Right now has it crossing Yucatan into BoC.
If further GFS runs show an increase in recurve north, this could miss the Yucatan all together.

I see nothing at all to indicate any threat to the Gulf of Mexico. No need to get those Florida folks worked up about this. Most likely, it'll develop Fri/Sat and move inland into Nicaragua/Honduras by early next week. Strong westerly winds aloft and high shear will extend all the way to the southern Gulf by this weekend. This potential storm has Central America written all over it.

[Iceresistance]

Why are you saying this?

GFS is starting to show a curve northward in the west Carib.
Right now has it crossing Yucatan into BoC.
If further GFS runs show an increase in recurve north, this could miss the Yucatan all together.

I see nothing at all to indicate any threat to the Gulf of Mexico. No need to get those Florida folks worked up about this. Most likely, it'll develop Fri/Sat and move inland into Nicaragua/Honduras by early next week. Strong westerly winds aloft and high shear will extend all the way to the southern Gulf by this weekend. This potential storm has Central America written all over it.

The 12z GFS does show a CA Landfall into Belize.

[GCANE]

GFS is starting to show a curve northward in the west Carib.
Right now has it crossing Yucatan into BoC.
If further GFS runs show an increase in recurve north, this could miss the Yucatan all together.

I see nothing at all to indicate any threat to the Gulf of Mexico. No need to get those Florida folks worked up about this. Most likely, it'll develop Fri/Sat and move inland into Nicaragua/Honduras by early next week. Strong westerly winds aloft and high shear will extend all the way to the southern Gulf by this weekend. This potential storm has Central America written all over it.

The 12z GFS does show a CA Landfall into Belize.

Watching closely the trend of the track on further model runs.
Especially if this strengthens more quickly than currently forecast.
We all know how well the models do with that - sarcasm intended.

[GCANE]

Recon on the way in

[zzzh]

Recon passed that naked swirl. No significant wind shift and no significant pressure drop. It's nothing but a swirl. I could see LLC forming under the convection as shear lessens.

[GCANE]

They are already down to 990mb flight level (500ft altitude)

[GCANE]

Recon passed that naked swirl. No significant wind shift and no significant pressure drop. It's nothing but a swirl. I could see LLC forming under the convection as shear lessens.

They need to make a pass south of the CoC to look for west winds.

[aspen]

I hope recon checks the deepest convection and MLC to see if an LLC is trying to make its way to the surface there. Right now I’m thinking 91L is in that phase where it looks really nice but doesn’t have anything under the hood.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking at visible more closely, I can see that the low level clouds on the southwest side of the swirl literally aren’t moving. Explains why ascat doesn’t close this off. Looks good storm-relative, but isn’t there from a ground-relative perspective. No TD today

[GCANE]

Infeed from the west into the heavy convection is very plain.
Seems to be quickly ramping up in speed.
IMHO the wave axis is imbedded under the deep convection.
The naked swirl is likely a rogue vortex

[GCANE]

Nice tower firing off 10.4N 56.8W

[Aric Dunn]

Complete waste of a flight if they dont fly to ESE into the Convection to find the new developing LLC>

[GCANE]

Just checked WV sat.
Very symmetrical and fast expanding outflow

[GCANE]

Tons of popup convection along South America coast and inland.
Debris will feed into this tonight.

[aspen]

Imagine they spend the entire flight investigating a naked swirl and continue to ignore the potent MLC.

[Aric Dunn]

Imagine they spend the entire flight investigating a naked swirl and continue to ignore the potent MLC.

Definitely more than an MLC in that convection.. all of the west and SW flow is being diverted from the naked vort.

[wxman57]

I would give the folks at the NHC and on the recon plane enough credit to know where to look for any circulation. That vortex west of the convection is definitely rotating, just can't tell at which level above the water. I always say, the center follows the convection, meaning follow the convection and not that vortex for possible development location. ASCAT pass indicated a wave axis, and I believe that's all recon will find. If it does develop, that'll be in at least 3-4 days as it's approaching the SW Caribbean. No threat to Puerto Rico, either. They don't need any more impacts after Fiona. Surprised the NHC hasn't started advisories on the low west of the Cabo Verde Islands. I started advisories on it yesterday. No threat to any land areas.

[cycloneye]

East of the Windward Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands is producing an area of showers
and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined center.
Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days, if the system stays far enough away from land while
moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
southeastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to become more
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions
of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Very poorly defined center right there. however, the broad low of which it is embedded in does not look too bad.

[Aric Dunn]

Now we just have to wait for the old one to die.. recon found the developing LLC.