EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5524
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#141 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:16 pm

Looks like recon found some kind of wind shift under the NW tip of the convection? It’s so weak though, honestly can’t tell which seems more transient - the persistent low level swirl out west or the <10kt wind shift in the convection. Probably doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme
0 likes   

zzzh
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 506
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#142 Postby zzzh » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:16 pm

Image
Here it is. Still partially exposed due to shear
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#143 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:24 pm

Just went red on the NHC site.
They're not f**ing around with this one.
3 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#144 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:27 pm

GCANE wrote:Just went red on the NHC site.
They're not f**ing around with this one.


Yes, good chance of development in 3-4 days. Recon finding a wave axis today.
2 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#145 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:27 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#146 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:44 pm

I hate it when things get left out of the raw recon data. Like extrapolated pressure :roll:
1 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#147 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:45 pm

They're in that tower.
Great infeed and near 50 mm/hr rain rate.
Very strong updraft - might be the one that kicks off the surface low.
1 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#148 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:46 pm

Clocking 33knt SFMR
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#149 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:48 pm

Lotsa helicity with that tower.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#150 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:51 pm

Ensembles are all over the place with this, from Cuba to Panama.
Nothing is certain at this point
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#151 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:52 pm

AL, 91, 2022100418, , BEST, 0, 112N, 572W, 30, 1008, DB


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#152 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:
AL, 91, 2022100418, , BEST, 0, 112N, 572W, 30, 1008, DB


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat


Right where IR sats have it pegged
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#153 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:00 pm

3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#154 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:06 pm

tropicwatch wrote:I hate it when things get left out of the raw recon data. Like extrapolated pressure :roll:

A lot of the AF missions in the last month have been missing extrapolated pressures. Hopefully they fix whatever issues the planes are having before the start of next season.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Camerooski
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:40 pm
Location: Lauderdale-By-the-Sea ---> Coral Gables

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#155 Postby Camerooski » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:32 pm



Way too early to be making these declarations, have we not learned anything?
4 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#156 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:38 pm

Camerooski wrote:


Way too early to be making these declarations, have we not learned anything?


That is true, but the Subtropical jet is over the GoM, any system that tries to make a run for it would likely be absolutely shredded.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#157 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:54 pm

Old vort is starting to die a quick death. LLC in the convection is taking over.
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 436
Age: 22
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#158 Postby tiger_deF » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:58 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Camerooski wrote:


Way too early to be making these declarations, have we not learned anything?


That is true, but the Subtropical jet is over the GoM, any system that tries to make a run for it would likely be absolutely shredded.


The only way I can see this system threatening the US at this juncture (and this is very subject to change in the future) is if it gets far enough North that some of the powerful troughs that are modelled to pass through the CONUS pull it into a sharp recurve, potentially impacting the west coast of Fl or the East Coast, which is fairly unlikely but not impossible.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#159 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:13 pm

Latest GFS has a Rossby wave dropping down over FL 10/16.
If this wave slows down, it could time 91L in front of it.
Result would be a tug poleward and in the anticyclone - which likely strengthens it.
Pray it doesn't
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#160 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:17 pm

GCANE wrote:Latest GFS has a Rossby wave dropping down over FL 10/16.
If this wave slows down, it could time 91L in front of it.
Result would be a tug poleward and in the anticyclone - which likely strengthens it.
Pray it doesn't


Some of the GFS ensembles recurve it into Florida but for now they look like outliers.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests