EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#261 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:57 pm

Interesting...
they probably should have sent the plane.........

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Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#262 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:57 pm

They added this sentence to the TWO.

While surface observations do suggest broad rotation
and pressures are lower than 24 hours ago, there currently is no
definitive proof that a well-defined circulation exists.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#263 Postby FireBird » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:00 pm

Hi All from my obs on the ground here in NW Trinidad, I can tell you that this system is quickly developing. The winds started their shift earlier this evening, and though the gusts are still variable, we know down here that when something is strong enough to survive the graveyard, everyone west of us should watch out.
As of now we have had a reported 200mm rainfall, one woman has been swept away without recovery, damage to bridges, roads, homes, and several cars were washed away and destroyed. Riverine alerts remain in effect.
So to my neighbours, prepare for the worst and hope for the best...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#264 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:03 pm

I think PTC advisories are warranted now. It’s up to 70% in 48 hours, the NHC has recognized its improved organization, and recon from earlier today found evidence for TS-force surface winds. It’s tracking so close to land that advisories may be needed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#265 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:08 pm




Cell motion on radar and satellite seems to show the LLC is farther north.. could be multiple vorts I suppose as well.. but definitely something is closed down there.

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Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#266 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:16 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#267 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:57 pm

AL, 91, 2022100600, , BEST, 0, 114N, 644W, 30, 1006, DB


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#268 Postby MarioProtVI » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:57 pm

aspen wrote:I think PTC advisories are warranted now. It’s up to 70% in 48 hours, the NHC has recognized its improved organization, and recon from earlier today found evidence for TS-force surface winds. It’s tracking so close to land that advisories may be needed.

It’ll have to wait until 11am tomorrow since they never initiate PTC advisories at night.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#269 Postby Nuno » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:01 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
aspen wrote:I think PTC advisories are warranted now. It’s up to 70% in 48 hours, the NHC has recognized its improved organization, and recon from earlier today found evidence for TS-force surface winds. It’s tracking so close to land that advisories may be needed.

It’ll have to wait until 11am tomorrow since they never initiate PTC advisories at night.


I hope they initiate them sooner at 5am. Don't need to wait to 11am.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#270 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:12 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#271 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:15 pm

Nuno wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:
aspen wrote:I think PTC advisories are warranted now. It’s up to 70% in 48 hours, the NHC has recognized its improved organization, and recon from earlier today found evidence for TS-force surface winds. It’s tracking so close to land that advisories may be needed.

It’ll have to wait until 11am tomorrow since they never initiate PTC advisories at night.

I hope they initiate them sooner at 5am. Don't need to wait to 11am.


Advisories were initiated on Ian (as a td) at 5am, could happen again if data is compelling enough. Probably not likely though
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#272 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:27 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#273 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:33 pm


Could the recent burst of convection to the north (around 11.7N) pull the forming(?) LLC towards it?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#274 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:02 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#275 Postby zzzh » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:06 pm

Image
Center is clear on microwave. Much further north than NHC position.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#276 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:35 pm

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/a0BwhjZ.jpg
Center is clear on microwave. Much further north than NHC position.


Yeah I think ASCAT is having issues with all the islands and land nearby. the LLC is pretty apparent on satellite and multiple microwave passes now a good bit north. hopefully, they send a plane tomorrow,.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#277 Postby AJC3 » Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/a0BwhjZ.jpg
Center is clear on microwave. Much further north than NHC position.


Yeah I think ASCAT is having issues with all the islands and land nearby. the LLC is pretty apparent on satellite and multiple microwave passes now a good bit north. hopefully, they send a plane tomorrow,.

https://i.ibb.co/zhd3YxH/91l.png


It's not the instrument. When a formative system is embedded in the easterly trades, the surface LLC shown in scatterometer data is always going to be displaced south of the LL vort center you see in M/I because of the translational forward speed. Take an idealized (uniform) LLVC, vectorially add 15kt across its environment, and watch what happens to the center. A great example of this is cyclone Agni in 2004. All of the M/I passes as well as conventional satellite data showed the apparent center remaining north of the equator, however QS clearly showed the surface center dipped south of it.

I made a post about this on here several years ago. I'll see if I can find it...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#278 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:33 pm

AJC3 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/a0BwhjZ.jpg
Center is clear on microwave. Much further north than NHC position.


Yeah I think ASCAT is having issues with all the islands and land nearby. the LLC is pretty apparent on satellite and multiple microwave passes now a good bit north. hopefully, they send a plane tomorrow,.

https://i.ibb.co/zhd3YxH/91l.png


It's not the instrument. When a formative system is embedded in the easterly trades, the surface LLC shown in scatterometer data is always going to be displaced south of the LL vort center you see in M/I because of the translational forward speed. Take an idealized (uniform) LLVC, vectorially add 15kt across its environment, and watch what happens to the center. A great example of this is cyclone Agni in 2004. All of the M/I passes as well as conventional satellite data showed the apparent formative vort center remaining north of the equator, however QS clearly showed the surface wind center dipped south of it.

I made a post about this on here several years ago. I'll see if I can find it...

This is interesting but a bit over my head. Is ascat too far south with the center, or is microwave too far north?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#279 Postby AJC3 » Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:43 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Yeah I think ASCAT is having issues with all the islands and land nearby. the LLC is pretty apparent on satellite and multiple microwave passes now a good bit north. hopefully, they send a plane tomorrow,.

https://i.ibb.co/zhd3YxH/91l.png


It's not the instrument. When a formative system is embedded in the easterly trades, the surface LLC shown in scatterometer data is always going to be displaced south of the LL vort center you see in M/I because of the translational forward speed. Take an idealized (uniform) LLVC, vectorially add 15kt across its environment, and watch what happens to the center. A great example of this is cyclone Agni in 2004. All of the M/I passes as well as conventional satellite data showed the apparent formative vort center remaining north of the equator, however QS clearly showed the surface wind center dipped south of it.

I made a post about this on here several years ago. I'll see if I can find it...

This is interesting but a bit over my head. Is ascat too far south with the center, or is microwave too far north?


The storm-relative LL vort center is where M/I puts it. The ground-relative LL wind center is where ASCAT puts it. Going by the strict definition of a TC, the LLC is where the surface wind center is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#280 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:38 am

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure located over the far southeastern Caribbean
Sea is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and adjacent
waters. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that this system does
not yet have a well-defined center of circulation. While land
interaction with the northern coast of South America may hinder
significant development during the next day or so, environmental
conditions are expected to be mostly conducive for development as
the system moves generally westward, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in the next couple of days by the time the system
enters the south-central Caribbean Sea.

1. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands, northern portions of Venezuela including
Isla Margarita, and the ABC Islands during the next day or two.
Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central
America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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