EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.

Is still early to the end but I can tell you that it looks like much less long than the 308 pages of Ian because it will not be a long duration cyclone and no U.S tracking.

Floridians do the heavy lifting on this board when it comes to content so when there is no threat to the sunshine state, the post count plummets like a dropsonde dropped from a plane.

[GCANE]

Recon is finding tons of west winds

[tropicwatch]

Looks like a couple of vortices in that area. Very disorganized.

[GCANE]

Likely, they'll tag this a TD at about 11.5N 61.3W

[underthwx]

Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.

Is still early to the end but I can tell you that it looks like much less long than the 308 pages of Ian because it will not be a long duration cyclone and no U.S tracking.

Floridians do the heavy lifting on this board when it comes to content so when there is no threat to the sunshine state, the post count plummets like a dropsonde dropped from a plane.

With all my respects, maybe on the content, but there's no shortage of caring about each and every one of yall...promise you that my friend.....be well

[WiscoWx02]

Just a wave, still. It's going to be skirting the coast of South America until Saturday afternoon, which is when I have it becoming a TD/TS. It will be hard for it to develop with the southern half over land. Nicaragua is the target. Careful using radar to find a surface circulation, as the farther out from the radar site, the higher up you're looking for a circulation. It does remind me of Joan of 1988 or Cesar of 1996.

wxman57 is usually right about these things, probably going to not form till this weekend…idk about the ceiling on it though. Part of me says a Bonnie repeat while a part of me looks at Iota, Joan, Otto and thinks otherwise.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just a wave, still. It's going to be skirting the coast of South America until Saturday afternoon, which is when I have it becoming a TD/TS. It will be hard for it to develop with the southern half over land. Nicaragua is the target. Careful using radar to find a surface circulation, as the farther out from the radar site, the higher up you're looking for a circulation. It does remind me of Joan of 1988 or Cesar of 1996.

wxman57 is usually right about these things, probably going to not form till this weekend…idk about the ceiling on it though. Part of me says a Bonnie repeat while a part of me looks at Iota, Joan, Otto and thinks otherwise.

Personally, I can't really see this being a Bonnie repeat. June had an abnormally sprawling and strong high pressure, which contributed to that storm being confined to SA (not to mention the speed shear it had to handle during that time, which is very usual for June). October climatology is simply not the same, and it is generally more favorable for westward tracking systems through the Caribbean for a reason.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like it would qualify as a well-defined LLC. I don't think the NHC will call it a TD. It's a mess. My track has it moving into northern Nicaragua Sunday afternoon/evening as a 50kt TS. First becomes a TD Friday evening after passing Venezuela.

[underthwx]

Doesn't look like it would qualify as a well-defined LLC. I don't think the NHC will call it a TD. It's a mess. My track has it moving into northern Nicaragua Sunday afternoon/evening as a 50kt TS. First becomes a TD Friday evening after passing Venezuela.

Good enough for me Xman...let's hope it gets squashed and doesn't cause anyone any misery.....have a great day!

[underthwx]

Just a wave, still. It's going to be skirting the coast of South America until Saturday afternoon, which is when I have it becoming a TD/TS. It will be hard for it to develop with the southern half over land. Nicaragua is the target. Careful using radar to find a surface circulation, as the farther out from the radar site, the higher up you're looking for a circulation. It does remind me of Joan of 1988 or Cesar of 1996.

wxman57 is usually right about these things, probably going to not form till this weekend…idk about the ceiling on it though. Part of me says a Bonnie repeat while a part of me looks at Iota, Joan, Otto and thinks otherwise.

Similar tracks you mean?

[tropicwatch]

Doesn't look like it would qualify as a well-defined LLC. I don't think the NHC will call it a TD. It's a mess. My track has it moving into northern Nicaragua Sunday afternoon/evening as a 50kt TS. First becomes a TD Friday evening after passing Venezuela.

Think they might go with PTC.

[ColdMiser123]

Center appears a bit broad, but there are plenty of west winds being found by recon, and more of a circulation than what the GFS thought at this point. GFS had no westerlies at all.

Since this has stayed weak up until now, it will be CA bound. Will be watching for any quick ramp up in intensity as conditions are quite favorable in the southwest Caribbean.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane Mike]

Wow lots of lightning in those squalls.

[WiscoWx02]

Just a wave, still. It's going to be skirting the coast of South America until Saturday afternoon, which is when I have it becoming a TD/TS. It will be hard for it to develop with the southern half over land. Nicaragua is the target. Careful using radar to find a surface circulation, as the farther out from the radar site, the higher up you're looking for a circulation. It does remind me of Joan of 1988 or Cesar of 1996.

wxman57 is usually right about these things, probably going to not form till this weekend…idk about the ceiling on it though. Part of me says a Bonnie repeat while a part of me looks at Iota, Joan, Otto and thinks otherwise.

Personally, I can't really see this being a Bonnie repeat. June had an abnormally sprawling and strong high pressure, which contributed to that storm being confined to SA (not to mention the speed shear it had to handle during that time, which is very usual for June). October climatology is simply not the same, and it is generally more favorable for westward tracking systems through the Caribbean for a reason.

Yeah I agree with your thinking too which is why part of me wouldn't be shocked if it gets much stronger than Bonnie. But Wmman57...idk I like to think he's fairly spot on and he doesn't think it'll do much strength wise. Doesn't mean it won't do much flood wise though of course.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1577336754830340102

[Kazmit]

wxman57 is usually right about these things, probably going to not form till this weekend…idk about the ceiling on it though. Part of me says a Bonnie repeat while a part of me looks at Iota, Joan, Otto and thinks otherwise.

Personally, I can't really see this being a Bonnie repeat. June had an abnormally sprawling and strong high pressure, which contributed to that storm being confined to SA (not to mention the speed shear it had to handle during that time, which is very usual for June). October climatology is simply not the same, and it is generally more favorable for westward tracking systems through the Caribbean for a reason.

Yeah I agree with your thinking too which is why part of me wouldn't be shocked if it gets much stronger than Bonnie. But Wmman57...idk I like to think he's fairly spot on and he doesn't think it'll do much strength wise. Doesn't mean it won't do much flood wise though of course.

Intensity can be a wild card sometimes. Early on, Ian wasn’t supposed to be more than a low end cat 3 at most.

[tropicwatch]

Doesn't look like the NHC is going to pull the trigger on anything yet.

[wxman57]

Just a wave, still. It's going to be skirting the coast of South America until Saturday afternoon, which is when I have it becoming a TD/TS. It will be hard for it to develop with the southern half over land. Nicaragua is the target. Careful using radar to find a surface circulation, as the farther out from the radar site, the higher up you're looking for a circulation. It does remind me of Joan of 1988 or Cesar of 1996.

wxman57 is usually right about these things, probably going to not form till this weekend…idk about the ceiling on it though. Part of me says a Bonnie repeat while a part of me looks at Iota, Joan, Otto and thinks otherwise.

Similar tracks you mean?

Yes, similar tracks to Cesar and Joan, but not similar intensity, necessarily.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like it would qualify as a well-defined LLC. I don't think the NHC will call it a TD. It's a mess. My track has it moving into northern Nicaragua Sunday afternoon/evening as a 50kt TS. First becomes a TD Friday evening after passing Venezuela.

Think they might go with PTC.

It doesn't meet the requirements for a PTC. First, there must be a high chance of development within 48 hours (it's medium now). Second, there must be a requirement for TS watches or warnings within 48 hours of possible impact. The A-B-C islands are in the path, but I'm not sure if the NHC issues watches/warnings for them. This disturbance will have a very hard time organizing with much of it being over land for the next 48 hrs. Time to issue an advisory on a SOuth Indian Ocean depression...