EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

ASCAT has made a direct hit, still no LLC.

Where is the graphic?

https://tropicwatch.info/ascat1430z.png

Looks closed to me.

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok so I have two questions at this point in time. Any input would be greatly appreciated.

1. Is this thing expected to be a fast mover, or a slow mover? I would imagine that the former would cap intensity, but the latter (as in an Eta/Iota-esque crawl) could really allow for some strengthening, at least I would think?

2. How well are Nicaragua and other neighboring vicinities recovering from Eta and Iota? Because if that process is still ongoing or going slowly, then this system really could be a threat, regardless of precise strength.

[Nuno]

Would a PTC designation have been appropriate in this situation? Flooding looks very concerning.

Heavy rain and wind gusts to tropical storm strength are common with just about every moderate tropical wave. That's not enough to begin advisories.

Why not? Not every tropical wave creates this kind of flooding. I am an amateur but I cannot find a met to ever describe why "thats not enough". If there are TS strength gusts and flooding conditions why not use the PTC product out of caution?

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2022100518, , BEST, 0, 114N, 628W, 30, 1006, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1577750226424635392




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1577753540470001664

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah there is undoubtedly a well defined LLC under that growing tower. on the edge of radar so cant really use that.

but plenty of evidence today for a PTC or TD/TS

[ThunderForce]

If 91L already has a closed low-level circulation, does that mean it is more likely to strengthen more and/or get into the Gulf?

[Hurricaneman]

If 91L already has a closed low-level circulation, does that mean it is more likely to strengthen more and/or get into the Gulf?

Nope, too much ridging to the north and little to no weakness to pick it up so anywhere from Nicaragua to Belize

[LemieT]

PTC seems like it should fit just fine in this case. Plenty of evidence to support a cyclone but not enough to be conclusive; model support, conducive environment, strong evidence of a closed warm-core low, major effects to land (tropical-storm conditions), etc... I'd assume the word "potential" in this definition or name would really color how it's used. The only issues would be: 1 - simply not liking the definition, or B - attaching it to every wave that comes across the Atlantic. This is not just any run-of-the-mill wave.

[Aric Dunn]

If 91L already has a closed low-level circulation, does that mean it is more likely to strengthen more and/or get into the Gulf?

Nope, too much ridging to the north and little to no weakness to pick it up so anywhere from Nicaragua to Belize

It would need to Deepen to a high TS low hurricane within the next 24 hours to catch the weakness there now. it will likely end up in the BOC though, as it heads towards the western carrib rapid intensification is likely and that will cause it to stay WNW.

[ThunderForce]

If 91L already has a closed low-level circulation, does that mean it is more likely to strengthen more and/or get into the Gulf?

Nope, too much ridging to the north and little to no weakness to pick it up so anywhere from Nicaragua to Belize

I'm hoping this having a closed LLC already doesn't mean that Nicaragua and Belize are more likely to get a major hurricane.

[mpic]

My Guatemalan neighbors still have relatives there and are really concerned. They are telling me that the houses are really not made to withstand much.

[Nimbus]

If 91L already has a closed low-level circulation, does that mean it is more likely to strengthen more and/or get into the Gulf?

Nope, too much ridging to the north and little to no weakness to pick it up so anywhere from Nicaragua to Belize

I'm hoping this having a closed LLC already doesn't mean that Nicaragua and Belize are more likely to get a major hurricane.

Looks like a surface low survived the TUTT shredder that was to the north for a few days. 1005 MB low under a building ridge is usually bad news. Late season storms like Mitch left a lot of nightmare memories.

[Teban54]

Even more evidence supporting TCG:
 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1577773102397853698

[cycloneye]

Even more evidence supporting TCG:
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1577773102397853698?s=20&t=rxpA65swa2QlZGcd_84Q2g

There was a plane for this evening but was postponed for Thursday at 5:45 PM EDT. It would have been great to have it now.

[aspen]

Even more evidence supporting TCG:
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1577773102397853698?s=20&t=rxpA65swa2QlZGcd_84Q2g

There was a plane for this evening but was postponed for Thursday at 5:45 PM EDT. It would have been great to have it now.

Are we getting any planes in tomorrow, or during the next 12 hours? If 91L is undergoing TCG then the next plane should find a closed LLC.

[skyline385]

Even more evidence supporting TCG:
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1577773102397853698?s=20&t=rxpA65swa2QlZGcd_84Q2g

There was a plane for this evening but was postponed for Thursday at 5:45 PM EDT. It would have been great to have it now.

Recon this close to land would be mostly flagged anyways though, maybe they could have found a center fix if it existed...

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure located over the far southeastern Caribbean
Sea is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and adjacent
waters. While surface observations do suggest broad rotation
and pressures are lower than 24 hours ago, there currently is no
definitive proof that a well-defined circulation exists. While land
interaction with the northern coast of South America may hinder
significant development during the next day or so, environmental
conditions are expected to be generally favorable for development as
the system moves westward, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in the next couple of days by the time the system enters the
south-central Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the
ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests in those
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.