EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[MHC Tracking]

Quite convectively active as we head into DMAX.

[psyclone]

Ian has demolished the oceanic heat over the eastern gulf and flooded the entire field in that region with dry air. Should a storm try to track that way going forward it will have vastly less fuel under the hood and likely a much less hospitable environment. If this thing develops and heads toward central America...it probably has a much higher ceiling..

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is producing a new burst at Dmin. Interesting. I am wondering if TCG has already begun.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Invest 91L is undergoing a favorable trough interaction right now. Rapid development is a possibility.

[Beef Stew]

This wave is already looking quite healthy, relatively speaking. Looking to see if the NHC bumps up genesis odds soon.

[MHC Tracking]

This wave is already looking quite healthy, relatively speaking. Looking to see if the NHC bumps up genesis odds soon.

I would expect 30/40, or even 40/50 at the 8 pm TWO

[SFLcane]

Not looking like a Conus problem at the moment a track towards Central America seems likely for now.

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1576658679310393345

[Camerooski]

Not looking like a Conus problem at the moment a track towards Central America seems likely.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1576658679310393345?s=46&t=3CQs_axzxPQqgifvOOLE2A

I've been burned on long-range synoptic forecasts enough to know not to play this game. It's October, a digging trough is the usual climatological pattern here. Watch for the models to trend north in the long-range with time.

[Camerooski]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/october.gif

[toad strangler]

Not looking like a Conus problem at the moment a track towards Central America seems likely.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1576658679310393345?s=46&t=3CQs_axzxPQqgifvOOLE2A

I've been burned on long-range synoptic forecasts enough to know not to play this game. It's October, a digging trough is the usual climatological pattern here. Watch for the models to trend north in the long-range with time.

It doesn’t make any sense to invest in 10 day steering.

[IcyTundra]

Not looking like a Conus problem at the moment a track towards Central America seems likely.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1576658679310393345?s=46&t=3CQs_axzxPQqgifvOOLE2A

I've been burned on long-range synoptic forecasts enough to know not to play this game. It's October, a digging trough is the usual climatological pattern here. Watch for the models to trend north in the long-range with time.

Or it could just stay west like Iota, Eta, Mitch, Joan, Keith, etc. A track westward into Central America isn't unusual for this time of year.

[SFLcane]

Not looking like a Conus problem at the moment a track towards Central America seems likely.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1576658679310393345?s=46&t=3CQs_axzxPQqgifvOOLE2A

I've been burned on long-range synoptic forecasts enough to know not to play this game. It's October, a digging trough is the usual climatological pattern here. Watch for the models to trend north in the long-range with time.

Or it could just stay west like Iota, Eta, Mitch, Joan, Keith, etc. A track westward into Central America isn't unusual for this time of year.

A track into CA surely is not unusual the long range steering looks quiet a bit different then with Ian. Hope it sticks

[jonj2040]

Looking at the TCHP form before Ian 9/20/2022 vs today 10/02/2022, it looks like Ian had very little effect on the area's potential with the exception of the path from the northern coast of Cuba and where Ian made landfall in Florida. ; heat-wise, to sustain a storm. Source: https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html

I was going to ask if:
That cooler patch bisects the gulf stream so won't it be mixed out fairly quickly?

but I realized the area was already cooler than the surrounding water prior to Ian. Shouldn't that be warm due to the current? or is that typical?

09/20/2022


10/02/2022


However, it looks like if something were to head into the GOM it would be shredded. And that seems quite consistent between all models.

[toad strangler]

I've been burned on long-range synoptic forecasts enough to know not to play this game. It's October, a digging trough is the usual climatological pattern here. Watch for the models to trend north in the long-range with time.

Or it could just stay west like Iota, Eta, Mitch, Joan, Keith, etc. A track westward into Central America isn't unusual for this time of year.

A track into CA surely is not unusual the long range steering looks quiet a bit different then with Ian. Hope it sticks

It’s not unusual at all. If that was mentioned I missed it. It’s very plausible. But how many times have we said at some point….. uh … where did that trough come from? Not just in the Caribbean. Anywhere. We see it all the time when storms are modeled to plow west under strong Atlantic ridging only for a big weakness pop out of nowhere and off to the N Atlantic it goes. Too far out!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1576695935022772224

[Sciencerocks]

[NotSparta]

Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.

It really has been a while since we had that kind of system before (last real one was Felix back in 2007). Who knows what this thing will do...

This one won't be that kind either, would develop/strengthen too late

[cycloneye]

East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
east of the Windward Islands. Further development of the wave
is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph,
reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by
midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[WiscoWx02]

Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.

It really has been a while since we had that kind of system before (last real one was Felix back in 2007). Who knows what this thing will do...

This one won't be that kind either, would develop/strengthen too late

Do you think this wave has much of a chance at all? Hardly any model support but that upper level environment looks pretty favorable.

[cheezyWXguy]

It really has been a while since we had that kind of system before (last real one was Felix back in 2007). Who knows what this thing will do...

This one won't be that kind either, would develop/strengthen too late

Do you think this wave has much of a chance at all? Hardly any model support but that upper level environment looks pretty favorable.

That’s not really correct, there’s decent amount of model support. The 18z gefs is a downtick, yes, but all 12z ensemble suites have at least some signal, and so do a number of ensemble runs before that. Going to need to see 0z runs of both ensemble and deterministic at minimum to determine if this is a fluke or an actual downtrend. I like the NHc’s odds for now though