EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

People north and east of CA really got lucky with this one, if there happened to be a trough that lifted north into the GOM it would potentially be massive trouble.

[galaxy401]

As I said before but these October Caribbean storms can get really nasty if at the right location. Won't be surprised if it RIs this weekend. Nicaragua needs to watch this storm.

[Teban54]

One thing with these Central American systems is that damage often occurs (well) away from the center due to flooding. Eta caused more deaths in Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico and Panama than Nicaragua where it made landfall. Nate in 2017 caused enough damage in Costa Rica to warrant retirement, even though its track was nowhere close to making landfall there.

[ScottNAtlanta]

These systems can rapidly intensify in this area. Iris (2001) was trying to organize and when it finally did it went from 95mph to 140mph in 12 hours (NHC had forecast a peak of 105). It RI'd when the track started going south of west. Just shows how quickly this can happen here. The eye also shrunk to 7 miles (a record Wilma would break in four years with 3 miles wide.) Iris was a relatively compact storm.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Iris

[LarryWx]

One thing with these Central American systems is that damage often occurs (well) away from the center due to flooding. Eta caused more deaths in Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico and Panama than Nicaragua where it made landfall. Nate in 2017 caused enough damage in Costa Rica to warrant retirement, even though its track was nowhere close to making landfall there.

Same with Iota if I'm not mistaken.

[aspen]

Recon is taking off. Maybe it’ll find TS Julia when it arrives.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I can't imagine why this wouldn't be a 40 knot TS already. We'll see what the recon finds.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's leaving land now, and based on the shear maps, looks like mid-level and deep-layer shear over the system will be quite low for a while.

Something tells me that this has the potential to really bomb out. Yes, I really think we really need to keep an eye on what at this point looks highly likely to be Julia, because there's a non-zero chance Julia will perform quite well and become the third retirement lock for this season.

[cycloneye]

Julia

AL, 13, 2022100712, , BEST, 0, 123N, 720W, 35, 1004, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal132022.dat

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah, um...

[aspen]

It's leaving land now, and based on the shear maps, looks like mid-level and deep-layer shear over the system will be quite low for a while.

Something tells me that this has the potential to really bomb out. Yes, I really think we really need to keep an eye on what at this point looks highly likely to be Julia, because there's a non-zero chance Julia will perform quite well and become the third retirement lock for this season.

If Julia ends up anything like other recent Central America landfalling storms, then all three names likely to be retired this year are replacements for 2004 storms. Fiona replaced Frances, Ian replaced Igor after replacing Ivan, and Julia replaced Jeanne. Colin is the one exception, because I guess that name is fated to only be used for the most pathetic and questionable shorties possible.

[tropicwatch]

HH finding increasing winds the closer it gets to the center of TD 13. Of course, comms go down right as things are getting good.

[skyline385]

ATCF updates to TS

AL, 13, 2022100712, , BEST, 0, 123N, 720W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1009, 120, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

[Iceresistance]

May have lost signal with Recon.

Maybe this post would get the signal back.

[tropicwatch]

Just went through center, extrapolated pressure 1002.7 highest surface wind before comms went down 39mph. Two readings with that wind.

[aspen]

Of course comms are down just for the center pass and come back on afterwards.

[cheezyWXguy]

Very distinct center and pressure drop. Windfield is still sprawling, but it’s getting it’s act together

[Iceresistance]

Very distinct center and pressure drop. Windfield is still sprawling, but it’s getting it’s act together

VDM has 1002 mb

[cycloneye]

We have first VDM.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132022
A. 07/13:33:40Z
B. 12.63 deg N 072.66 deg W
C. 925 mb 707 m
D. EXTRAP 1002 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 34 kt
I. 060 deg 66 nm 13:11:00Z
J. 130 deg 47 kt
K. 060 deg 67 nm 13:10:30Z
L. 31 kt
M. 314 deg 69 nm 13:55:30Z
N. 081 deg 45 kt
O. 314 deg 88 nm 14:01:00Z
P. 21 C / 760 m
Q. 23 C / 761 m
R. 21 C / NA
S. 1345 / 9
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF307 0413A CYCLONE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 060 / 67 NM 13:10:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like that 13L still suffering with strong wind shear due to it's convective bands at north.