EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#381 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:59 am

We now have TS Julia
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#382 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:00 am

Looks like that center recon found is becoming exposed, but it also looks like there’s some turning out west under that deeper convection. Center relocation?
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#383 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:14 am

I’m getting the feeling that Julia is going to be one of those storms where the effects of shear are way more pronounced than excepted. We’ll see if shear does drop throughout the day like the NHC thinks is going to.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#384 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:20 am

Image
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#385 Postby WiscoWx02 » Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:37 am

aspen wrote:I’m getting the feeling that Julia is going to be one of those storms where the effects of shear are way more pronounced than excepted. We’ll see if shear does drop throughout the day like the NHC thinks is going to.


Yeah I'm not expecting much at all, doubt it becomes a hurricane, Bonnie 2.0 IMO. That doesn't change the fact that catastrophic flooding is possible in central America unfortunately.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#386 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:44 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:
aspen wrote:I’m getting the feeling that Julia is going to be one of those storms where the effects of shear are way more pronounced than excepted. We’ll see if shear does drop throughout the day like the NHC thinks is going to.


Yeah I'm not expecting much at all, doubt it becomes a hurricane, Bonnie 2.0 IMO. That doesn't change the fact that catastrophic flooding is possible in central America unfortunately.

What’s your reasoning on this?
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#387 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:53 am

Well considering it's already a TS and not a struggling PTC, you can go ahead and throw those Bonnie comparisons right out the window. Bonnie didn't develop until right before landfall so I'm not sure how that would apply here...
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#388 Postby Hurricane Mike » Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:03 am

Here's a morning video on Julia for anyone interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtWd1s4fm_g
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#389 Postby zzzh » Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:29 am

Looks like the center is completely exposed.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#390 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:32 am

Naked swirl and pressure rising per VDM
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#391 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:35 am

Looks like the sweet spot for it to ramp up is in about 12 hrs where it will be close to a pool of high OHC water.
After that, will track into lower OHC water.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#392 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:39 am

Pretty much getting a cutoff of high TPW air due to mountains of Columbia at this time.
Once it gets more west, may pick up moisture from the EPAC since Panama is relatively flat.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#393 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Oct 07, 2022 11:43 am

Won’t be exposed for too long. You can see moisture being pulled in at the surface through the inflow “bands”. A few more hours, then the Bonnie references will stop. Remember, intensification is not linear. We saw how people’s downcasts on Ian aged like milk less than 2 weeks ago
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#395 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:01 pm

Seems to be maintaining right now. Not up or down 8-)
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#396 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:18 pm



How does this compare to Iota? Very similar starting positions location-wise, but in terms of structure, I am not quite sure
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#397 Postby zzzh » Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:20 pm

Extrapolated pressure down to 1000.7. Dropped about 2.6mb since last pass (35 mins ago). It's weird considering that it's just a naked swirl
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#398 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:29 pm

No reason to believe this wont be at or very near hurricane strength before landfall.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#399 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:40 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:


How does this compare to Iota? Very similar starting positions location-wise, but in terms of structure, I am not quite sure

Iota had a terrible structure before bombing out into a monster.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#400 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:03 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:


How does this compare to Iota? Very similar starting positions location-wise, but in terms of structure, I am not quite sure


One important difference I see between Julia and Iota is the speed of movement. Iota has moved slowly for much of its life and has had enough time to become something perhaps stronger than a 155 mph major hurricane. While Julia this year is moving faster and will likely make landfall in less than 40 hours from now, it's also possible that Julia won't even make it to Category 1.

...However, as Julia is in a very favorable environment for rapid intensification, I think there is uncertainty here about her future peak intensity. In a way, we can see both a Bonnie 2.0 and a Noru 2.0 in their approach to Nicaragua.
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