EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Looks like HH is starting to fly a quadrant pattern now. Unless they are just staying at operational altitude for a little while before heading to the barn.

[Hurricane Mike]

Here is a morning video update for those interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dZy13aNVK4

[cycloneye]

Looks like HH is starting to fly a quadrant pattern now. Unless they are just staying at operational altitude for a little while before heading to the barn.

The mission is over.

[cycloneye]

Flooding in Trinidad.

 https://twitter.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1577689813695750146

[hurricanes1234]

Flooding in Trinidad.

https://twitter.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1577689813695750146

I can confirm this. Northern parts of the island are currently experiencing severe flash flooding from this system and videos keep coming in of cars being swept away as well as houses being inundated. There's also a lot of traffic as large roadways linking east and west are completely impassable.

Flooding is common here during the wet season with afternoon thunderstorms and tropical waves but this is more intense.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT has made a direct hit, still no LLC.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT has made a direct hit, still no LLC.

Where is the graphic?

[tropicwatch]

ASCAT has made a direct hit, still no LLC.

Where is the graphic?

[Teban54]

ASCAT has made a direct hit, still no LLC.

Where is the graphic?

https://tropicwatch.info/ascat1430z.png

Is that not an LLC....?

[tropicwatch]

Where is the graphic?

https://tropicwatch.info/ascat1430z.png

Is that not an LLC....?

It is also the vicinity the HH was flying in.

[skyline385]

It looks like it is getting hit pretty hard by what looks like a PV streamer, some of the models showed it too





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[Aric Dunn]

Now that the broad circ has tiled and the southerly surge has picked up we are starting to see the circ tighten and getting better curvature.

[aspen]

It looks like it is getting hit pretty hard by what looks like a PV streamer, some of the models showed it too

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221005/10092e9656ddfe46950ee868fbb69c10.gif

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221005/634d63fce7530f83ec9b05229fbc4570.gif

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That would explain why most of the convection is over SA or right on the coast. It might outrun the PVS in the next day or so and will probably have better odds of TCG then.

[cheezyWXguy]

Now that the broad circ has tiled and the southerly surge has picked up we are starting to see the circ tighten and getting better curvature.

https://i.ibb.co/yqwwHTH/ezgif-com-gif-maker-60.gif

Was just gonna post about this. Hadn’t seen radar til your post, but looking at visible, the circulation looks pretty elongated w-e, like there’s a string of vorticity centers. Ascat shows this elongation as well. The inflow coming off of SA and the surface boundaries to the north make it look as though there may be a center near or just west of Tobago, and it looks like your radar confirms that. Granted the radar is seeing aloft, but given the convection I could see that working to the surface.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft mission this morning indicate that the
broad area of low pressure located over the far southeastern
Caribbean Sea does not have a well-defined center. Although the
system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over
the southern Windward Islands and adjacent waters, satellite and
radar imagery from Barbados show that it is not well organized.
The system is forecast to move generally westward near the northern
coast of South America, and interaction with land is likely to
hinder significant development during the next day or so. After
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next two to three days when the system is over the
south-central Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the
ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests in those
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[GCANE]

Big outflow boundary headed north.
About to hit Barbados

[wxman57]

From the NHC outlook:

The system is forecast to move generally westward near the northern
coast of South America, and interaction with land is likely to
hinder significant development during the next day or so. After
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next two to three days when the system is over the
south-central Caribbean Sea.

Who would have thought development was not likely until it passes Venezuela (in 48 hrs)?

[cheezyWXguy]

From the NHC outlook:

The system is forecast to move generally westward near the northern
coast of South America, and interaction with land is likely to
hinder significant development during the next day or so. After
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next two to three days when the system is over the
south-central Caribbean Sea.

Who would have thought development was not likely until it passes Venezuela (in 48 hrs)?

This is the first I’m hearing of it. Rumors have it there’s a pro met on this board (a “weatherman” if you will) who could have offered some insight. If only he would have chimed in

[Nuno]

Would a PTC designation have been appropriate in this situation? Flooding looks very concerning.

[wxman57]

Would a PTC designation have been appropriate in this situation? Flooding looks very concerning.

Heavy rain and wind gusts to tropical storm strength are common with just about every moderate tropical wave. That's not enough to begin advisories. Just hold your horses, NHC will begin advisories by Friday morning, as a TS watch will be needed for Nicaragua and 91L will likely be a TD at some point on Friday.