EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

They should probably PTC this thing.

[Sciencerocks]

[ouragans]

They should probably PTC this thing.

I would, too, for St Vincent and Grenada. Maybe Tobago. This has the potential for an upgrade to TS while crossing the islands

[WxEp]

Does anyone have any idea why the WPC issued the 2 PM TWO? NHC issued the Special TWO 2 hours prior.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
...
Forecaster Bann

[floridasun]

i see plane didnt find low this afternoon want back to base

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
450 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical
Depression Twelve, located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. East of the Windward Islands:
Updated: Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the broad area of low pressure located a couple of
hundred miles east of the Windward Islands does not have a closed
circulation and the center remains ill defined. In addition, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is still displaced to
the southeast of the center. Upper-level winds are likely to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next couple of days, if the system stays far
enough away from land while moving westward at about 15 mph across
the Windward Islands and southeastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development later this
week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the
Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC
Islands during the next couple of days, and interests in those
locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be
found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Berg

[NotSparta]

Wonder why they issued an STWO if the chances remained the same

[wxman57]

Since it isn't going to develop east of the Caribbean, no need for TS watches/warnings, so no PTC needed. Give it 3-4 days then watch it go into Central America by Sunday/Monday. No concern to Gulf.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1577342565975670784

[Aric Dunn]

Once the old vort completely finishes dying. the LLC to the SE should pretty quickly become even defined enough for the NHC overnight before entering the carrib. luckily we will have radar. Def should be PTC

[Iceresistance]

Once the old vort completely finishes dying. the LLC to the SE should pretty quickly become even defined enough for the NHC overnight before entering the carrib. luckily we will have radar. Def should be PTC

We don't need to jump the gun yet, the only way it's a PTC is if the system has gale force winds (Or forecasted to have it) without a LLC or a poorly defined one and is a immediate threat to land.

We have one of the criteria met for possible threats to land for a PTC designation, but it does not meet the one for gale-force winds. No PTC like Wxman57 (Heat Miser) said before.

[Aric Dunn]

Once the old vort completely finishes dying. the LLC to the SE should pretty quickly become even defined enough for the NHC overnight before entering the carrib. luckily we will have radar. Def should be PTC

We don't need to jump the gun yet, the only way it's a PTC is if the system has gale force winds (Or forecasted to have it) without a LLC or a poorly defined one and is a immediate threat to land.

We have one of the criteria met for possible threats to land for a PTC designation, but it does not meet the one for gale-force winds. No PTC like Wxman57 (Heat Miser) said before.

1. the "Potential" is there
2. both ASCAts showed TS winds farther east then recon sampled.
3. there are more islands/land than just the immediate lesser Antilles.

[GCANE]

The PV streamer coming down from the ULL is dissipating quickly ahead of 91L.
May look interesting at DMAX.

[GCANE]

At 10/9 GFS is showing a real nice Anti-Cyclonic Wave Break (ARWB) east of the Yucatan.
91L will be north of Panama then.
Watch out if it tracks into this.

[GCANE]

Convection coming up on the north end of the wave axis.
The real heavy convection is firing along the east side of the wave axis and outlines the infeed of high TPW air flowing in from the Amazon.
The TPW air is more at the boundary layer and a little above.
Convective debris from pop ups over South America is also beginning to flow in which is mostly at mid levels in the troposphere.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1577403419152699392

[Aric Dunn]

Convection coming up on the north end of the wave axis.
The real heavy convection is firing along the east side of the wave axis and outlines the infeed of high TPW air flowing in from the Amazon.
The TPW air is more at the boundary layer and a little above.
Convective debris from pop ups over South America is also beginning to flow in which is mostly at mid levels in the troposphere.

Barbados radar showing the circ coming into view.. def NW inflow into the convection. the llc is growing while the old dies and stretches out.

[cheezyWXguy]

Convection coming up on the north end of the wave axis.
The real heavy convection is firing along the east side of the wave axis and outlines the infeed of high TPW air flowing in from the Amazon.
The TPW air is more at the boundary layer and a little above.
Convective debris from pop ups over South America is also beginning to flow in which is mostly at mid levels in the troposphere.

Barbados radar showing the circ coming into view.. def NW inflow into the convection. the llc is growing while the old dies and stretches out.

I assume the circulation center is near/under that relatively new -80C burst? Hard to tell on vis so hopefully radar tells a better story

[wxman57]

35kt winds in a tropical wave do not a tropical storm make. Quite a few moderate to strong tropical waves produce tropical storm force wind in squalls, but that doesn't mean they are tropical storms. Wait until Friday or Saturday for development. I say again, this is not going to be a Gulf threat. Westerly winds across the Gulf are much stronger and farther south than pre-Ian. It's a Central America/southern Mexico storm.

[GCANE]

Convection coming up on the north end of the wave axis.
The real heavy convection is firing along the east side of the wave axis and outlines the infeed of high TPW air flowing in from the Amazon.
The TPW air is more at the boundary layer and a little above.
Convective debris from pop ups over South America is also beginning to flow in which is mostly at mid levels in the troposphere.

Barbados radar showing the circ coming into view.. def NW inflow into the convection. the llc is growing while the old dies and stretches out.

I assume the circulation center is near/under that relatively new -80C burst? Hard to tell on vis so hopefully radar tells a better story

[url]https://i.ibb.co/PjzXXqV/1-B8375-A9-7-DD6-49-E8-AAA1-7-DD1-C4236993.jpg [/url]

Its doing good on radar