EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Either recon is heading away from the possible LLC Webb pointed out on Twitter, or there isn’t an LLC over water yet. They’re turning back east now, so hopefully they’ll check ~68W some more.

[cheezyWXguy]

Either recon is heading away from the possible LLC Webb pointed out on Twitter, or there isn’t an LLC over water yet. They’re turning back east now, so hopefully they’ll check ~68W some more.

Looking at shortwave, the center appears to be sw of curaçao, halfway between the island and the coast, and just went under that big convective burst. Eric’s obs and recon’s seem to corroborate this, although it’s too close to land for recon to a center pass. I agree with Eric, I think this is a TC now

[WiscoWx02]

Either recon is heading away from the possible LLC Webb pointed out on Twitter, or there isn’t an LLC over water yet. They’re turning back east now, so hopefully they’ll check ~68W some more.

Looking at shortwave, the center appears to be sw of curaçao, halfway between the island and the coast, and just went under that big convective burst. Eric’s obs and recon’s seem to corroborate this, although it’s too close to land for recon to a center pass. I agree with Eric, I think this is a TC now

You can clearly see a low level center just off the coast of Venezuela. Just north of that massive CB burst. It's definitely there, big question is if the winds are actually closed at the surface.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1578172740674134019

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah we do not need another Eta/Iota. It spells trouble for sure. There is a very good chance this becomes a Major.

Central America is a very flood prone zone. This is why so many hurricanes that have hit the region (Otto, Hattie, Joan, Eta, Iota, Mitch, and Felix to name a few) have inflicted tons of damage and loss of life there.

I'm honestly a bit concerned at this point that should some of the more aggressive models for future Julia pan out, we could be looking at a pretty grave disaster.

[Argcane]

Made a loop with the Curacao radar. It clearly shows the LLC hugging the Venezuelan coast

[cycloneye]

A WNW jog at Best Track.

AL, 13, 2022100700, , BEST, 0, 118N, 691W, 30, 1004, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal132022.dat

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1578186650592563200

[cheezyWXguy]

That CB is cranking. Wonder how fast this system will strengthen when it moves away from the coast

[cycloneye]

A few 40's on last set.

[Category5Kaiju]

I have a prediction.

Julia will officially be named on October 7

[CrazyC83]

Radar seems to suggest a TC, but Recon was unable to sample that close to the Venezuelan coast. It's a judgement call. I'd go with 35 kt for the intensity regardless.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hello tropical depression 13. Very deep convection is occurring right now.

[Nimbus]

The TUTT looks like it is ventilating the low level circ with the streamer.
Once it gets back over the Caribbean further west off the Colombian coast it will have over 60 hours to deepen.

[CrazyC83]

The TUTT looks like it is ventilating the low level circ with the streamer.
Once it gets back over the Caribbean further west off the Colombian coast it will have over 60 hours to deepen.

From all I can tell, it will be off to the races. There seems to be very little to prevent it from rapidly intensifying. The question: how rapid?

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

The TUTT looks like it is ventilating the low level circ with the streamer.
Once it gets back over the Caribbean further west off the Colombian coast it will have over 60 hours to deepen.

From all I can tell, it will be off to the races. There seems to be very little to prevent it from rapidly intensifying. The question: how rapid?

If 1988 and 2020 taught us anything, it's that the SW Caribbean can definitely spawn monstrous Cat 4 storms without much effort during the late season. Not saying future Julia will be that, but considering the anomalously warm waters down there and how that region is climatologically favored during this time of the year (and how crazy things have happened in the past), I'm not really going to rule out anything just yet.

[Hurricane2022]

It's looking pretty good in Infrared. Maybe it could be a 40kt TS now

I'm starting to wonder if Category 4 status can be considered at the moment.

[Kazmit]

Eta and Iota were both weakening on landfall. This one looks like it will be strengthening all the way in.

[Teban54]

Probably not a true shrimp, but still looks quite impressive for a newly formed TD: