EPAC: JULIA - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#21 Postby N2FSU » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:22 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#22 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:36 am

06Z EPS pretty docile

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#23 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:38 am

12z icon finally picks this up, 998mb into Central America.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#24 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:32 am

12Z GFS Ops has something, but is this 91L?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#25 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:35 am

chris_fit wrote:12Z GFS Ops has something, but is this 91L?

https://i.imgur.com/Bgc3GMp.png

To my eyes, it looks like 12z GFS crashes 91L into CA without development, then develops something off South America into this. The vorticity was just behind 91L in the ECar.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#26 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:39 am

Teban54 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:12Z GFS Ops has something, but is this 91L?

https://i.imgur.com/Bgc3GMp.png

To my eyes, it looks like 12z GFS crashes 91L into CA without development, then develops something off South America into this. The vorticity was just behind 91L in the ECar.

Agreed. Probably another phantom, but we are getting to the time of year where setups like this actually happen. Will the blind squirrel finally find his nut?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#27 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:57 am

Heh - Doubtful

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#28 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:07 pm

chris_fit wrote:Heh - Doubtful

https://i.imgur.com/rtEKmuX.png


Seems like it's loosely associated with 91L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#29 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:16 pm

12Z EPS slight tick up in activity but nothing that really raises an eyebrow yet...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#30 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:01 pm

chris_fit wrote:12Z EPS slight tick up in activity but nothing that really raises an eyebrow yet...

https://i.imgur.com/fyBOE6r.png


Basically, any uptick of activity would raise an eyebrow, even if it's by a little. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#31 Postby lando » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:11 pm

chris_fit wrote:Heh - Doubtful

https://i.imgur.com/rtEKmuX.png


This is not 91L but a wave after it or a CAG from South America
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#32 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:36 pm

I agree. The dates don't match up with the models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#33 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:51 pm

I'm surprised nobody mentioned the uptick in the 18Z EPS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#34 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:08 pm

lando wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Heh - Doubtful

https://i.imgur.com/rtEKmuX.png


This is not 91L but a wave after it or a CAG from South America

The only evidence I see of this second system on a model other than the gfs is the 0z icon, which isn’t saying much because I can only see the surface or 500mb vorticity on TT. It appears that second system, were it to actually develop, would come from trailing vorticity that splits from 91L as it passes South America.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#35 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:42 pm

GFS back on board with development, has a major heading towards Belize
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#36 Postby REDHurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:53 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:GFS back on board with development, has a major heading towards Belize


Nah, if you look closely you'll see that the GFS randomly spins up another separate area of vorticity after 91L runs into Nicaragua starting at ~168 hours out -- this CAG convection bias has been the GFS' favorite phantom storm generator all season and tells me that this run has nearly zero chance of verifying
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#37 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:00 am

REDHurricane wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:GFS back on board with development, has a major heading towards Belize


Nah, if you look closely you'll see that the GFS randomly spins up another separate area of vorticity after 91L runs into Nicaragua starting at ~168 hours out -- this CAG convection bias has been the GFS' favorite phantom storm generator all season and tells me that this run has nearly zero chance of verifying

Yeah looking at the 850 vort it looks like you're right.

In that case it gets to 1003mb before landfall so maybe that still counts as development :lol: Either way I still think this develops in the W Caribbean but we'll see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#38 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:06 am

REDHurricane wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:GFS back on board with development, has a major heading towards Belize


Nah, if you look closely you'll see that the GFS randomly spins up another separate area of vorticity after 91L runs into Nicaragua starting at ~168 hours out -- this CAG convection bias has been the GFS' favorite phantom storm generator all season and tells me that this run has nearly zero chance of verifying

You’re right, it’s not 91L that the gfs spins up into a major, but that area doesn’t originate from the cag. Watch the 850mb vorticity and you’ll see that some trailing vorticity splits off after it passes the lesser Antilles. GEFS shows something similar, with members starting to pop up in the east-central Caribbean. Icon shows a hint of this too. There could be something to this, but we need more continuity.

Another note, just because the gfs has a notorious cag bias doesn’t mean it will always be wrong when it shows it. Climatologically, we are getting to the time of year where a cag scenario is actually plausible. Again, not the scenario the gfs is showing at the moment, but even if it were a broken clock is still right twice a day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#39 Postby skyline385 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:11 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
REDHurricane wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:GFS back on board with development, has a major heading towards Belize


Nah, if you look closely you'll see that the GFS randomly spins up another separate area of vorticity after 91L runs into Nicaragua starting at ~168 hours out -- this CAG convection bias has been the GFS' favorite phantom storm generator all season and tells me that this run has nearly zero chance of verifying

You’re right, it’s not 91L that the gfs spins up into a major, but that area doesn’t originate from the cag. Watch the 850mb vorticity and you’ll see that some trailing vorticity splits off after it passes the lesser Antilles. GEFS shows something similar, with members starting to pop up in the east-central Caribbean. Icon shows a hint of this too. There could be something to this, but we need more continuity.

Another note, just because the gfs has a notorious cag bias doesn’t mean it will always be wrong when it shows it. Climatologically, we are getting to the time of year where a cag scenario is actually plausible. Again, not the scenario the gfs is showing at the moment, but even if it were a broken clock is still right twice a day.


ICON's genesis is from the actual 91L, GFS builds up spurious vorticity from SA and develops the second system. The 850mb vorticity plot also looks like a classic GFS certified solution with two systems extremely close to each other.

Image

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1577061136708403200


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#40 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:17 am

skyline385 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
REDHurricane wrote:
Nah, if you look closely you'll see that the GFS randomly spins up another separate area of vorticity after 91L runs into Nicaragua starting at ~168 hours out -- this CAG convection bias has been the GFS' favorite phantom storm generator all season and tells me that this run has nearly zero chance of verifying

You’re right, it’s not 91L that the gfs spins up into a major, but that area doesn’t originate from the cag. Watch the 850mb vorticity and you’ll see that some trailing vorticity splits off after it passes the lesser Antilles. GEFS shows something similar, with members starting to pop up in the east-central Caribbean. Icon shows a hint of this too. There could be something to this, but we need more continuity.

Another note, just because the gfs has a notorious cag bias doesn’t mean it will always be wrong when it shows it. Climatologically, we are getting to the time of year where a cag scenario is actually plausible. Again, not the scenario the gfs is showing at the moment, but even if it were a broken clock is still right twice a day.


ICON's genesis is from the actual 91L, GFS builds up spurious vorticity from SA and builds the second system. The 850mb vorticity plot also looks like a classic GFS certified solution with two systems extremely close to each other.

https://i.imgur.com/0FQoqT0.png

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1577061136708403200?s=20&t=bhoXSc2KPjnUrHLXCuJjhw


Again, it could be spurious (hence “need more continuity” but it’s not from SA or the CAG.

Image


ICON does develop 91L but shows a hint of the trailing system too, though it’s harder to tell if it comes off of SA when only looking at 500mb

Image
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