ATL: TWELVE - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#21 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:31 pm

2pm TWO is at 80/80 and states that advisories will probably be initialized sometime later today/tonight. There’s a chance this becomes Julia and 91L becomes Karl.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

zzzh
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 506
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#22 Postby zzzh » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:47 pm

Looks like we have TD 12
0 likes   

MarioProtVI
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 662
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#23 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:58 pm

RAMMB has 12L so yes this will be Julia.
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:20 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#25 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:48 pm

Forecast to become Julia but overall looks like this will be similar to TD11. Weak/short lived system
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#26 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:50 pm

Yet another short-lived and weak system in the far eastern MDR. Let’s see if this can grab a name unlike TD11.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#27 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:12 pm

Yep, another shorty. May become Julia tomorrow, briefly.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#28 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:54 pm

It's trying its hardest to get named. The 00z BT still shows it as a TD.
Image
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

MarioProtVI
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 662
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#29 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:50 pm

Now no longer expected to become Julia. That’s two TD busts in a row that were expected to become Julia. Interestingly they mention the possible regen chances but with its current state it’s gonna die out before it even gets there.
0 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#30 Postby Teban54 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:53 pm

Let's not forget that having a tropical cyclone in the eastern MDR in October is an anomaly to begin with.
0 likes   

zhukm29
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 219
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:37 pm

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#31 Postby zhukm29 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:59 pm

ASCAT with the clean miss again, much like TD11. :lol: ASCAT seems to be whiffing on all the shorty candidates this year, missing TD10/Hermine (which was upgraded on Dvorak), TD11, and now TD12. It also missed 95L in early September as well until it was too sheared to be designated a TC. We definitely need some more scatterometers up there, especially since ASCAT-A was decomissioned last year.

:spam:
4 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#32 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:19 pm

At least based on visible satellite, this thing is really trying to get a name, even if briefly :lol:
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#33 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:49 pm

Image
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#34 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:23 am

It's almost as if this season heard about people complaining about "shorties," so it decided to not allow them to form at all :lol:

I'll take that.
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#35 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:07 am

Image
0 likes   

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#36 Postby underthwx » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:11 am

wxman57 wrote:Yep, another shorty. May become Julia tomorrow, briefly.

Unfriendly atmosphere for the system?
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#37 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:18 am

underthwx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Yep, another shorty. May become Julia tomorrow, briefly.

Unfriendly atmosphere for the system?


It's a sheared system, the Wind Shear is going to be even higher and shred Twelve apart. (Can't see the CIMSS wind shear map, it's too far east for it to be seen)
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#38 Postby underthwx » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:36 am

Iceresistance wrote:
underthwx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Yep, another shorty. May become Julia tomorrow, briefly.

Unfriendly atmosphere for the system?


It's a sheared system, the Wind Shear is going to be even higher and shred Twelve apart. (Can't see the CIMSS wind shear map, it's too far east for it to be seen)

Thanks Ice, and good morning!...(shouldn't you be in a college class right now, to become a Meteorologist?....get to work!.....lol....just messin with you, have a great day!)
1 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#39 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:55 pm

Image
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#40 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:09 pm

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests