BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND BE SHORT-LIVED...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM NW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 86.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A motion to the south is expected to begin by Friday with gradually
increasing forward speed.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some modest intensification is forecast, and the depression could
become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow. However, the system
should begin to weaken by Friday night and degenerate into a
remnant low by Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
NOAA buoy 42039 recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57
km/h) with a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 6 inches are possible through Saturday across portions
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. This rainfall is not
directly related to Tropical Depression Two. This rainfall could
lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND BE SHORT-LIVED...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM NW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 86.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A motion to the south is expected to begin by Friday with gradually
increasing forward speed.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some modest intensification is forecast, and the depression could
become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow. However, the system
should begin to weaken by Friday night and degenerate into a
remnant low by Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
NOAA buoy 42039 recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57
km/h) with a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 6 inches are possible through Saturday across portions
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. This rainfall is not
directly related to Tropical Depression Two. This rainfall could
lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
Satellite imagery over the past 12-18 hours indicate that the area
of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become better
organized. A burst of moderate to deep convection that initiated
last night has persisted into the afternoon with an increase in
banding, though the cloud tops have been warming recently. An
earlier ASCAT-C pass at 1558 UTC also indicated a broad closed
circulation had developed along the southern edge of the cirrus
canopy. The NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown passed very near the center
earlier, showing a distinct wind shift with west-southwest winds
just south of the center. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance
aircraft has been investigating the system this afternoon. So far,
the aircraft was able to close off a circulation, and found flight
level winds in the 35-40 kt range to the northeast of the center.
The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix provided a data-T number of
2.0/30-kt. Based on all the above data, the system has enough
organization to initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, with
maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.
The depression has been meandering today, with the estimated motion
at 290/2 kt. Currently, the steering currents over the system are
light and variable as the cyclone is positioned directly overhead of
an upper-level trough. However as this trough shifts eastward,
deep-layer flow out of the north-northwest should begin to move the
cyclone slowly to the south or south-southwest with gradually
increasing forward motion. The initial NHC forecast track has
elected to stay close to the reliable consensus aid TVCN, which is
pretty close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts.
Intensity-wise, there is a small window for the system to intensify
further over the next 12-24 hours. While SHIPS diagnosed 200-850 mb
westerly shear is quite high, above 30 kt, with plenty of dry
mid-level air lurking to the west, the GOES-16 derived motion winds
suggest the cold cloud tops only extend up to 300 mb where westerly
flow is currently lighter. This factor may explain why upper-level
cirrus outflow has been expanding westward away from the center in
the northern semicircle. Sea surface temperatures between 26-27 C
combined with cold upper-level temperatures are also likely helping
to maintain enough thermodynamic instability for moderate to deep
convection to persist near the center. For this reason, the latest
NHC intensity forecast shows some modest intensification over the
next 12-24 h. However, by Friday night into Saturday, the same
northwesterly flow steering the system is also expected to rapidly
increase the shear as the system becomes positioned on the upstream
side of the upper-level trough, where subsidence may inhibit
additional convection. Thus, weakening is forecast to begin by
Friday night and the latest forecast degenerates the cyclone into a
remnant low by 60-h with dissipation shortly thereafter.
At this juncture, the relatively small wind field of the tropical
cyclone, combined with its motion keeping the center over the open
Gulf of Mexico for at least the next few days precludes the need
for any Watches and Warnings at this time.
Per the Public Information Statement that was issued by NHC on May
11, this system is being numbered as the second cyclone of 2023 in
the Atlantic basin and is being designated as Tropical Depression
Two. During the course of typical re-assessment of weather systems
in the NHC's area of responsibility, NHC determined that an area of
low pressure that formed off the northeastern coast of the United
States in mid-January was an “unnamed” subtropical cyclone and was
given AL012023 as its system ID. As a result, this system is
designated as AL022023, and advisories are being issued in AWIPS bin
2 (e.g., Public Advisories have been issued under AWIPS header
TCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC). If Tropical Depression Two
becomes a tropical storm, it would be given the name `ARLENE`.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 28.0N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 27.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 26.4N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 24.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 23.7N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 22.6N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
Satellite imagery over the past 12-18 hours indicate that the area
of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become better
organized. A burst of moderate to deep convection that initiated
last night has persisted into the afternoon with an increase in
banding, though the cloud tops have been warming recently. An
earlier ASCAT-C pass at 1558 UTC also indicated a broad closed
circulation had developed along the southern edge of the cirrus
canopy. The NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown passed very near the center
earlier, showing a distinct wind shift with west-southwest winds
just south of the center. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance
aircraft has been investigating the system this afternoon. So far,
the aircraft was able to close off a circulation, and found flight
level winds in the 35-40 kt range to the northeast of the center.
The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix provided a data-T number of
2.0/30-kt. Based on all the above data, the system has enough
organization to initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, with
maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.
The depression has been meandering today, with the estimated motion
at 290/2 kt. Currently, the steering currents over the system are
light and variable as the cyclone is positioned directly overhead of
an upper-level trough. However as this trough shifts eastward,
deep-layer flow out of the north-northwest should begin to move the
cyclone slowly to the south or south-southwest with gradually
increasing forward motion. The initial NHC forecast track has
elected to stay close to the reliable consensus aid TVCN, which is
pretty close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts.
Intensity-wise, there is a small window for the system to intensify
further over the next 12-24 hours. While SHIPS diagnosed 200-850 mb
westerly shear is quite high, above 30 kt, with plenty of dry
mid-level air lurking to the west, the GOES-16 derived motion winds
suggest the cold cloud tops only extend up to 300 mb where westerly
flow is currently lighter. This factor may explain why upper-level
cirrus outflow has been expanding westward away from the center in
the northern semicircle. Sea surface temperatures between 26-27 C
combined with cold upper-level temperatures are also likely helping
to maintain enough thermodynamic instability for moderate to deep
convection to persist near the center. For this reason, the latest
NHC intensity forecast shows some modest intensification over the
next 12-24 h. However, by Friday night into Saturday, the same
northwesterly flow steering the system is also expected to rapidly
increase the shear as the system becomes positioned on the upstream
side of the upper-level trough, where subsidence may inhibit
additional convection. Thus, weakening is forecast to begin by
Friday night and the latest forecast degenerates the cyclone into a
remnant low by 60-h with dissipation shortly thereafter.
At this juncture, the relatively small wind field of the tropical
cyclone, combined with its motion keeping the center over the open
Gulf of Mexico for at least the next few days precludes the need
for any Watches and Warnings at this time.
Per the Public Information Statement that was issued by NHC on May
11, this system is being numbered as the second cyclone of 2023 in
the Atlantic basin and is being designated as Tropical Depression
Two. During the course of typical re-assessment of weather systems
in the NHC's area of responsibility, NHC determined that an area of
low pressure that formed off the northeastern coast of the United
States in mid-January was an “unnamed” subtropical cyclone and was
given AL012023 as its system ID. As a result, this system is
designated as AL022023, and advisories are being issued in AWIPS bin
2 (e.g., Public Advisories have been issued under AWIPS header
TCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC). If Tropical Depression Two
becomes a tropical storm, it would be given the name `ARLENE`.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 28.0N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 27.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 26.4N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 24.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 23.7N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 22.6N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin