ATL: ARLENE - Advisories

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ATL: ARLENE - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2023 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM NW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 86.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A motion to the south is expected to begin by Friday with gradually
increasing forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some modest intensification is forecast, and the depression could
become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow. However, the system
should begin to weaken by Friday night and degenerate into a
remnant low by Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
NOAA buoy 42039 recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57
km/h) with a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 6 inches are possible through Saturday across portions
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. This rainfall is not
directly related to Tropical Depression Two. This rainfall could
lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Satellite imagery over the past 12-18 hours indicate that the area
of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become better
organized. A burst of moderate to deep convection that initiated
last night has persisted into the afternoon with an increase in
banding, though the cloud tops have been warming recently. An
earlier ASCAT-C pass at 1558 UTC also indicated a broad closed
circulation had developed along the southern edge of the cirrus
canopy. The NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown passed very near the center
earlier, showing a distinct wind shift with west-southwest winds
just south of the center. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance
aircraft has been investigating the system this afternoon. So far,
the aircraft was able to close off a circulation, and found flight
level winds in the 35-40 kt range to the northeast of the center.
The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix provided a data-T number of
2.0/30-kt. Based on all the above data, the system has enough
organization to initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, with
maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.

The depression has been meandering today, with the estimated motion
at 290/2 kt. Currently, the steering currents over the system are
light and variable as the cyclone is positioned directly overhead of
an upper-level trough. However as this trough shifts eastward,
deep-layer flow out of the north-northwest should begin to move the
cyclone slowly to the south or south-southwest with gradually
increasing forward motion. The initial NHC forecast track has
elected to stay close to the reliable consensus aid TVCN, which is
pretty close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts.

Intensity-wise, there is a small window for the system to intensify
further over the next 12-24 hours. While SHIPS diagnosed 200-850 mb
westerly shear is quite high, above 30 kt, with plenty of dry
mid-level air lurking to the west, the GOES-16 derived motion winds
suggest the cold cloud tops only extend up to 300 mb where westerly
flow is currently lighter. This factor may explain why upper-level
cirrus outflow has been expanding westward away from the center in
the northern semicircle. Sea surface temperatures between 26-27 C
combined with cold upper-level temperatures are also likely helping
to maintain enough thermodynamic instability for moderate to deep
convection to persist near the center. For this reason, the latest
NHC intensity forecast shows some modest intensification over the
next 12-24 h. However, by Friday night into Saturday, the same
northwesterly flow steering the system is also expected to rapidly
increase the shear as the system becomes positioned on the upstream
side of the upper-level trough, where subsidence may inhibit
additional convection. Thus, weakening is forecast to begin by
Friday night and the latest forecast degenerates the cyclone into a
remnant low by 60-h with dissipation shortly thereafter.

At this juncture, the relatively small wind field of the tropical
cyclone, combined with its motion keeping the center over the open
Gulf of Mexico for at least the next few days precludes the need
for any Watches and Warnings at this time.

Per the Public Information Statement that was issued by NHC on May
11, this system is being numbered as the second cyclone of 2023 in
the Atlantic basin and is being designated as Tropical Depression
Two. During the course of typical re-assessment of weather systems
in the NHC's area of responsibility, NHC determined that an area of
low pressure that formed off the northeastern coast of the United
States in mid-January was an “unnamed” subtropical cyclone and was
given AL012023 as its system ID. As a result, this system is
designated as AL022023, and advisories are being issued in AWIPS bin
2 (e.g., Public Advisories have been issued under AWIPS header
TCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC). If Tropical Depression Two
becomes a tropical storm, it would be given the name `ARLENE`.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 28.0N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 27.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 26.4N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 24.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 23.7N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 22.6N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2023 9:46 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 86.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
southward to south-southeastward motion at a slightly faster forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some modest strengthening is possible overnight, and the depression
could become a tropical storm by Friday morning. Weakening is
expected to begin later on Friday, and the system is forecast to
degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 5 inches are possible through Saturday across portions
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. This rainfall is not
directly related to Tropical Depression Two. Regardless, the heavy
rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart




Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

The depression remains a sheared tropical cyclone. While a new burst
of moderate to deep convection has developed this evening over the
northeastern portion of the circulation, the center is exposed and
appears elongated based on satellite imagery and low-level GOES-16
derived motion winds. Given the lack of improvement in its
structure, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a blend
of the earlier aircraft data and more recent satellite estimates.

The cyclone appears to be moving slowly southward in the latest
satellite imagery, with an estimated initial motion of 180/3 kt. As
the associated upper-level trough axis continues to shift eastward,
deep-layer northwesterly flow is expected to steer the cyclone
southward to south-southeastward at a slightly faster speed during
the next couple of days. The latest track guidance remains in good
agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC forecast is very
similar to the previous one with only minor adjustments based on the
latest consensus aids.

There is still a brief window for some modest strengthening during
the next 6-12 h, as the warm Gulf SSTs and cold temperatures aloft
could provide enough instability to support more deep convection
during the overnight diurnal maximum period. The official NHC
forecast still calls for the system to briefly become a tropical
storm before environmental conditions become increasingly hostile
later on Friday and into Saturday. In addition to increasing
deep-layer shear, dry air in the surrounding environment and less
favorable dynamics will make it difficult for the cyclone to sustain
organized convection and should induce a weakening trend. This
forecast shows the cyclone degenerating to a remnant low by 48 h and
dissipating by 60 h, with support from the latest GFS and ECMWF
model-simulated satellite imagery.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts,
coastal watches and warnings are not necessary at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 27.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 26.8N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 25.4N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 23.9N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 22.9N 85.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2023 4:48 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 86.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

The tropical cyclone has not become better organized this morning,
and it remains in a sheared state. The low-level center of the
system is located to the southwest of a rather ragged-looking area
of deep convection. Despite its unimpressive appearance, earlier
scatterometer data indicated that the cyclone was close to tropical
storm strength. A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate, using a
shear pattern measurement, is unchanged from the previous cycle and
the current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt for this advisory.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system later this morning.

Center fixes from satellite imagery indicate that the depression
continues to move slowly southward with an initial motion
estimate of 180/4 kt. There is little change to the track forecast
reasoning or numerical guidance from the previous advisory.
During the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move
southward to southeastward at a slightly faster forward speed on
the western side of a mid-level trough over Florida and east of a
ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. The latest official track
forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is a blend
of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.

It appears that the window of opportunity for the cyclone to
strengthen is closing, or has already closed. Vertical shear is
likely to remain strong or become even stronger as the system moves
farther south underneath an upper-tropospheric jet over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This shear, combined with some drier
air to the west of the trough over the extreme eastern Gulf, should
cause a weakening trend to commence by this evening. The official
intensity forecast shows the system degenerating into a remnant low
in 36 hours.

Based on the track and intensity forecast for this system, coastal
watches and warnings are not necessary at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 27.0N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 26.2N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 24.7N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 23.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 22.5N 84.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Advisories

#4 Postby AJC3 » Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:43 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 86.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 86.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
motion is expected to increase slightly during the day today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to weaken later today and tonight, and it is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure, based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters, is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 5 inches are possible through Saturday across portions
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. This rainfall is not
directly related to Tropical Depression Two. Regardless, the heavy
rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi



Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Convection has persisted throughout the morning, although the
tropical cyclone remains highly asymmetric and poorly organized.
The low-level center is located southwest of the large area of
persistent deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
has found no evidence of intensification this morning, and the
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate continues to support a steady
current intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is moving slowly south-southeastward with an initial
motion estimate of 175/4 kt. Numerical guidance and the official
track forecast remain similar to the previous advisory. The system
is expected to move southward to southeastward and accelerate its
forward speed somewhat during the next day. During this time, the
depression is expected to move along the western side of a
mid-level trough over Florida and east of a ridge over the western
Gulf of Mexico. The official track forecast is a blend of the
dynamical model consensus tracks and is generally consistent though
slightly east of the prior forecast.

The Hurricane Hunters will continue investigating the system for the
next several hours, and a short-lived increase to tropical storm
intensity cannot be ruled out. However, conditions are expected to
become increasingly unfavorable for intensification later today and
tonight. A combination of increasing vertical shear and drier air to
the west of the trough over the extreme eastern Gulf is expected to
cause the system to weaken in the next 12-24 hours. The official
intensity forecast shows the system as a remnant low in 36 hours and
dissipated by early Sunday.

Based on the track and intensity forecast for this system, coastal
watches and warnings are not necessary at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 26.7N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 25.6N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 24.2N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 23.2N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Advisories

#5 Postby AJC3 » Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:44 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Special Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 86.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Arlene is
moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to increase slightly through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Arlene is expected to weaken by tonight, and it
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 5 inches are possible through Saturday across portions
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. This rainfall is not
directly related to Tropical Depression Two. Regardless, the heavy
rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett/Delgado



Tropical Storm Arlene Special Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the
depression has strengthened into a tropical storm. On the last leg
of the current mission, the aircraft found maximum 925
mb flight-level winds of around 50 kt and SFMR surface winds of
around 35 kt. Based on these data, Tropical Depression Two has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Arlene with estimated peak winds of
35 kt.

Although the storm has strengthened slightly, we still expect
Arlene to weaken soon due to increasing wind shear and dry air, and
no change has been made to the forecast. The next forecast will be
issued at the normal time at 4 pm CDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1800Z 26.7N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 25.6N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 24.2N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 23.2N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett/Delgado
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2023 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

...ARLENE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2023 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

...ARLENE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

...ARLENE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



000
WTNT42 KNHC 022036
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Arlene has changed little during the last few hours. The low-level
center is still estimated to be near the southwest side of the main
area of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based
on the earlier Hurricane Hunter data and a Dvorak 2.5 classification
from TAFB. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a
relatively small region of about 60 n mi to the north of the center
in the area of strongest thunderstorms. Arlene is currently moving
to the south-southeast at about 5 kt and is being steered by a mid-
to upper-level trough that it is embedded within. This overall
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Although Arlene has strengthened a little today, the models are in
good agreement that increasing vertical wind shear and notably
drier air are expected to affect the cyclone beginning tonight.
These conditions should cause a weakening trend, and Arlene is
expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on
Sunday.

The main hazard expected from Arlene is the potential for heavy rain
over portions of south and central Florida through Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 26.4N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 25.3N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 24.0N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 23.2N 83.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:37 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

...ARLENE STILL A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 85.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Arlene is only producing small bursts of convection to the north and
northeast of its exposed low-level center tonight. The Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone earlier this
evening and reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt in the
northwestern portion of the circulation. These winds support an
initial intensity of 35 kt, which is also consistent with the
latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS.

Arlene is moving south-southeastward (155 degrees) at 6 kt. The
cyclone remains embedded within a mid-level trough, which is
resulting in significant vertical wind shear over the system. The
steering flow on the upstream side of this trough should keep the
cyclone moving generally southeastward during the next day or so. An
increasingly dry and confluent environment aloft, along with
continued deep-layer shear, is expected to limit new convective
development overnight. The NHC forecast shows Arlene spinning down
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, degenerating to a remnant low
on Saturday and dissipating by early Sunday.

Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still
the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern
Florida peninsula through Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 25.4N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 24.4N 85.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 23.5N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

...ARLENE LIKELY TO WEAKEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


AT2

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Arlene appears to be commencing a weakening trend. The strong
southwesterly shear that had been affecting the system has shifted
to a westerly or west-northwesterly direction, likely because the
upper-level trough axis has moved to the east of the tropical
cyclone. This is causing an even more hostile upper-level
environment for Arlene on the back side of the upper trough,
since the deep convection is weakening while being stripped
farther to the east of the center. The current intensity
estimate is kept at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with
a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and an objective estimate
from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system later this morning.

The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the south-southeast,
or at about 150/8 kt. Today and tonight, Arlene is expected to turn
toward the southeast within the flow on the western and southern
side of a mid-level trough near the Florida Peninsula. The official
track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical
consensus model solutions.

Based on the current trends in the cloud pattern and the
unfavorable atmospheric environment of strong shear and relatively
dry low- to mid-tropospheric air, weakening is likely. Arlene is
forecast to become a depression later today, degenerate into a
remnant low late tonight or early Sunday, and dissipate thereafter.
This is similar to the previous official forecast and in good
agreement with the numerical guidance.

Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still
the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern
Florida peninsula through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 24.5N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.7N 84.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 23.3N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 03, 2023 9:36 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Arlene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

...ARLENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 85.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


Tropical Depression Arlene Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Arlene has weakened to a tropical depression. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Arlene this morning and
found that the minimum pressure has risen to 1000 mb and maximum
winds have decreased to 30 kt or less. This weakening trend is due
to strong vertical wind shear and dry air that has wrapped into the
circulation, and continued weakening is forecast. Deep convection
associated with Arlene has been separating from the low-level
center, and there are only a few patches of convection left more
than 90 n mi northeast of the center. If these trends continue,
Arlene will be designated a remnant low later today.

The tropical depression is moving south-southeastward at about 6
kt. The system will turn to the east today as it moves within a
deep-layer trough, which will likely increase rainfall across
portions of southern Florida through tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 24.2N 85.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 23.6N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1200Z 23.9N 81.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 03, 2023 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
500 PM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023

...ARLENE NOW A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
500 PM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Arlene has lacked organized deep convection for quite some time now,
since about 07Z. There have been a few short-lived small bursts of
convection in the northeast quadrant, but they have been getting
quickly sheared off and lack organization. Therefore, Arlene no
longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone and the system is
now a remnant low. The initial intensity is estimated to be 25 kt
based on a partial ASCAT pass, surface observations, and the earlier
reconnaissance data. Strong vertical wind shear and dry air should
continue to cause weakening, and this system is expected to open
into a trough on Sunday.

The low pressure area is moving south-southeastward at 6 kt. A turn
to the east is expected tonight and that motion should continue
until the system dissipates. The remnant low will likely enhance
rainfall over portions of southern Florida through tonight.

This is the last NHC advisory on Arlene. For more information,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 23.7N 84.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/0600Z 23.6N 83.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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