ATL: NIGEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#141 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 18, 2023 4:41 pm

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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#142 Postby WalterWhite » Mon Sep 18, 2023 4:58 pm

I still think this will become a major hurricane. The NHC forecast and model guidance has fluctuated wildly, but given the SSTs, this could fairly easily become a major hurricane.
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#143 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 18, 2023 5:22 pm

WalterWhite wrote:I still think this will become a major hurricane. The NHC forecast and model guidance has fluctuated wildly, but given the SSTs, this could fairly easily become a major hurricane.

NHC forecast has not been fluctuating wildly
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#144 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Mon Sep 18, 2023 6:41 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:
WalterWhite wrote:I still think this will become a major hurricane. The NHC forecast and model guidance has fluctuated wildly, but given the SSTs, this could fairly easily become a major hurricane.

NHC forecast has not been fluctuating wildly


This has been one of the least accurately forecasted storms in recent years.
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#145 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 18, 2023 6:59 pm

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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#146 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:30 pm

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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#147 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:43 pm

Up to 75kt.

AL, 15, 2023091900, , BEST, 0, 282N, 524W, 75, 979, HU
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#148 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:58 pm

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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#149 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 18, 2023 9:11 pm

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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#150 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 18, 2023 10:05 pm

And I thought Margot struggled with maintaining deep convection… something is gonna have to change if this going to reach major status. Guessing trough interaction will make the environment more favorable for a time tomorrow before it ultimately shears Nigel out?
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#151 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 18, 2023 10:08 pm

At least the eye managed to pop up, so... Yay?
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#152 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 18, 2023 11:43 pm

Oh yikes, yeah that's not gonna get it done. Has about 24 more hours or so of decent conditions but becoming a major at this point is likely a long shot, and honestly it may have already peaked.
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#153 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Sep 18, 2023 11:45 pm

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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#154 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 18, 2023 11:54 pm

Structure does not favor any further intensification.
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#155 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Sep 19, 2023 1:07 am

I don’t know what’s worse, NHC being extremely bullish with Lee as Cat 5 only for it to get sheared not even 12 hours later or the fact they predicted a major with Nigel only for it to literally become a worse version of Earl from last year. Either way, the chances of this becoming a major are now zero, and even C2 is pretty much out of the question with that structure.
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#156 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 19, 2023 2:15 am

MarioProtVI wrote:I don’t know what’s worse, NHC being extremely bullish with Lee as Cat 5 only for it to get sheared not even 12 hours later or the fact they predicted a major with Nigel only for it to literally become a worse version of Earl from last year. Either way, the chances of this becoming a major are now zero, and even C2 is pretty much out of the question with that structure.


At least Lee actually attained Cat 5 even if it was brief.
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#157 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:58 am

Nigel definitely has a unique appearance this morning. Massive eye surrounded by a pretty thin band of convection. Looks like a donut or a low-profile tire. It's like an annular hurricane if you bought it from Temu. :lol:
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#158 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 19, 2023 6:19 am

MarioProtVI wrote:I don’t know what’s worse, NHC being extremely bullish with Lee as Cat 5 only for it to get sheared not even 12 hours later or the fact they predicted a major with Nigel only for it to literally become a worse version of Earl from last year. Either way, the chances of this becoming a major are now zero, and even C2 is pretty much out of the question with that structure.

To be fair, none of the models — not even the hurricane models — forecast that never-ending increase in shear before it happened. GCANE was the only one who noticed it before it struck. If the shear held off for even just 6-12 hours, we likely would’ve seen that 155 kt forecast peak verify.

Nigel though….yeah the NHC was way too aggressive. While some models did support MH intensity, the hurricanes models even then were showing this large eye structure that would’ve prevented RI, just like we’re seeing now. The dry air wasn’t super well forecast, but that structure was enough to cast doubt on a 100-105 kt peak.
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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#159 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 19, 2023 7:50 am

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Re: ATL: NIGEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#160 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 19, 2023 8:04 am

No further intensification as yet:
AL, 15, 2023091912, , BEST, 0, 299N, 539W, 75, 979, HU
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