ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4201 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2024 10:24 am

The ACE that Beryl has obtained so far is 34.9 units. It will fall short of the 36.1 total ACE that 2013 had. It has caused the North Atlantic to have a great start with 35.9.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4202 Postby SecondBreakfast » Mon Jul 08, 2024 10:32 am

yup, five different apartment communities my dad manages in the Houston area have no power. That is a few hundred people.

Anti-freeze wrote:2 million customers without power in the Houston area, but customer is by meter. So a house with a family of 5 is 1 customer, an apartment with 1 person is 1 customer, etc. I think it typically averages out to about 2.5 persons affected per customer. So about 5 million persons without power in a region of 7.6 million.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#4203 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Jul 08, 2024 10:40 am

Pipelines182 wrote:
wx98 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:A strengthening cat 1 is always worse than a weakening cat 2.

I mentioned this a couple days ago on here. Winds often aren’t mixing down in weakening systems but strengthening systems always pack a big punch, even if they aren’t that “strong”.


Glad I wasn't just imagining that. I wonder why the NHC never mentions it, nor any meteorologist I've noticed, IMO the impacts can be as much as 2 categories difference, it's significant.


Makes me think of Cindy's landfall on NOLA in 2005. As I recall (and granted it was a while back), I think everybody was expecting a tropical storm, not a suddenly strengthening almost Cat 2. We certainly never expected her to be as fierce as she was.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4204 Postby djmikey » Mon Jul 08, 2024 10:57 am

Picked up big time in Beaumont! Now starting to get gusts to 50mph. Lots of power outages around Beaumont and the Triangle. Rain has been manageable thankfully!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4205 Postby zzzh » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:06 am

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1810333376181584278



I'll add some other facts:
First real Caribbean Cruiser since 2007
Strongest hurricane in June (Cat 4).
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4206 Postby 869MB » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:14 am

Hurricane Beryl has dominated our tropical discussions for the past two weeks. Now that we have a final landfall over a heavily populated US metropolis with major widespread impacts, can we place a request to have the name Beryl retired and eventually turn the lights on this 200+ page July thread?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4207 Postby kassi » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:20 am

djmikey wrote:Picked up big time in Beaumont! Now starting to get gusts to 50mph. Lots of power outages around Beaumont and the Triangle. Rain has been manageable thankfully!

58mph at the airport.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4208 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:29 am

From the moment it emerged from West Africa to Texas it took 13 days for the long and historic journey of Beryl that smashed many records.

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4209 Postby Pipelines182 » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:40 am

The crazy thing is, we're already behind 2005 and we're about to get even further behind since that year is about to have Emily form.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4210 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:41 am

Saw an interesting article this morning where some folks on the Texas coast where Beryl made landfall decided to ride it out because it was "only going to be a Cat 1." Today they are saying they'll never do that again and that they felt Beryl was a lot more than just a Cat 1 (their perception and experience).
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4211 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:53 am

cycloneye wrote:The ACE that Beryl has obtained so far is 34.9 units. It will fall short of the 36.1 total ACE that 2013 had. It has caused the North Atlantic to have a great start with 35.9.


Also, even though it's temporary, it has cooled down the Caribbean and GoM a bit.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4212 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:57 am

This is probably doing more than anyone thought. Hurricanes on a rapid upswing seem to just do more wind.
 https://twitter.com/BrianaReports/status/1810300914147721675


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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4213 Postby wx98 » Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:58 am

Portastorm wrote:Saw an interesting article this morning where some folks on the Texas coast where Beryl made landfall decided to ride it out because it was "only going to be a Cat 1." Today they are saying they'll never do that again and that they felt Beryl was a lot more than just a Cat 1 (their perception and experience).

Goes to show that every hurricane is different.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4214 Postby Jr0d » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:02 pm

Portastorm wrote:Saw an interesting article this morning where some folks on the Texas coast where Beryl made landfall decided to ride it out because it was "only going to be a Cat 1." Today they are saying they'll never do that again and that they felt Beryl was a lot more than just a Cat 1 (their perception and experience).


I believe a major reason many have been in the other parts of 'only' a cat 1 or stronger storm several times and believe they went through full hurricane conditions when the reality is they experience at best moderate tropical storm conditions.

I have heard it countless times that someone claimed they were in 80 to 100 mph+ winds when the data showed their area at best was gusting to half of that and they were unwilling to listen to what the actual data says.

When those folks are facing the full brunt of "only" a cat 1 they get a false sense of security believing they know what a minimal hurricane is like.

As I said before, we have the distinction of a hurricane for a reason. While we are fairly safe in modern structures, hurricane force winds are no joke and mobile homes are not safe, nor is venturing outside.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4215 Postby SecondBreakfast » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:03 pm

Portastorm wrote:Saw an interesting article this morning where some folks on the Texas coast where Beryl made landfall decided to ride it out because it was "only going to be a Cat 1." Today they are saying they'll never do that again and that they felt Beryl was a lot more than just a Cat 1 (their perception and experience).


My friends who rode out Sandy on the barrier islands say the same thing…
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4216 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:From the moment it emerged West Africa to Texas it took 13 days for the long and historic journey of Beryl that smashed many records.

https://i.imgur.com/Xgcc5Rs.jpeg

I really like this track map product, never seen it. Its been tough finding any good ones since Unisys maps. The color table is pretty good except using yellow for CAT5.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4217 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:07 pm

Portastorm wrote:Saw an interesting article this morning where some folks on the Texas coast where Beryl made landfall decided to ride it out because it was "only going to be a Cat 1." Today they are saying they'll never do that again and that they felt Beryl was a lot more than just a Cat 1 (their perception and experience).

Beryl has created a lot of hardship for people in Houston today, hopefully any loss of life is minimal. That being said, the fact that this was bad enough to provoke that sentiment, without being bad enough to destroy the city has a bit of a silver lining to it. The next time a full-on major threatens the Houston metro, I think a lot more people will it seriously because “Beryl was this bad as only a cat1”
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4218 Postby bob rulz » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:08 pm

Jr0d wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Saw an interesting article this morning where some folks on the Texas coast where Beryl made landfall decided to ride it out because it was "only going to be a Cat 1." Today they are saying they'll never do that again and that they felt Beryl was a lot more than just a Cat 1 (their perception and experience).


I believe a major reason many have been in the other parts of 'only' a cat 1 or stronger storm several times and believe they went through full hurricane conditions when the reality is they experience at best moderate tropical storm conditions.

I have heard it countless times that someone claimed they were in 80 to 100 mph+ winds when the data showed their area at best was gusting to half of that and they were unwilling to listen to what the actual data says.

When those folks are facing the full brunt of "only" a cat 1 they get a false sense of security believing they know what a minimal hurricane is like.

As I said before, we have the distinction of a hurricane for a reason. While we are fairly safe in modern structures, hurricane force winds are no joke and mobile homes are not safe, nor is venturing outside.


I also think the data shows that this could've potentially been as high as 90mph at landfall, or perhaps 85mph. It seems like this has a real chance of receiving a higher landfall strength in post-season analysis.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4219 Postby Xyls » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:10 pm

Pipelines182 wrote:The crazy thing is, we're already behind 2005 and we're about to get even further behind since that year is about to have Emily form.


I'm going to come in with a hot take and say that I don't actually think we will beat the # of named storms from 2005 or 2020 this year. That dust is going to muck stuff up until August. We may have a very 2017 like season instead with a parade of intense hurricanes in it's place.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4220 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:22 pm

bob rulz wrote:
Jr0d wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Saw an interesting article this morning where some folks on the Texas coast where Beryl made landfall decided to ride it out because it was "only going to be a Cat 1." Today they are saying they'll never do that again and that they felt Beryl was a lot more than just a Cat 1 (their perception and experience).


I believe a major reason many have been in the other parts of 'only' a cat 1 or stronger storm several times and believe they went through full hurricane conditions when the reality is they experience at best moderate tropical storm conditions.

I have heard it countless times that someone claimed they were in 80 to 100 mph+ winds when the data showed their area at best was gusting to half of that and they were unwilling to listen to what the actual data says.

When those folks are facing the full brunt of "only" a cat 1 they get a false sense of security believing they know what a minimal hurricane is like.

As I said before, we have the distinction of a hurricane for a reason. While we are fairly safe in modern structures, hurricane force winds are no joke and mobile homes are not safe, nor is venturing outside.


I also think the data shows that this could've potentially been as high as 90mph at landfall, or perhaps 85mph. It seems like this has a real chance of receiving a higher landfall strength in post-season analysis.


Post Season analysis will be interesting on this one for sure. It really did intensify a LOT at landfall, see below:

 https://twitter.com/AaronRigsbyOSC/status/1810349881380176062


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