ATL: BERYL - Advisories

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:22 am

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1110 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MAKES LANDFALL ON CARRIACOU
ISLAND...
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL STRONGER...

Satellite imagery and Barbados radar data indicate that the eye of
Beryl has made landfall on Carriacou Island at 1110 AM AST (1510
UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Beryl's maximum sustained winds have increased to 150
mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance data is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Kelly/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:24 am

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1200 PM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

Beryl continues to produce catastrophic winds and life-threatening
storm surge to the Grenadine Islands, Carriacou Island, and Grenada.
This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.
Residents should not leave their shelter and remain in place through
the passage of these life-threatening conditions.

A weather station in St. Lucia recently reported a sustained wind
of 58 mph (93 km/h).

Another position update will be provided at 100 PM AST (1700 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 01, 2024 1:04 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS BERYL ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 62.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
for the island.

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Tobago and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for
Trinidad.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:52 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, DANGEROUS WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 63.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines has changed the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for those islands.

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast from
Punta Palenque westward to the border of Haiti.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the south coast of Haiti has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has changed the Hurricane
Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the island.




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Beryl has maintained a very impressive satellite appearance this
afternoon. The well-defined, symmetric eye is surrounded by a ring
of infrared cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. The central pressure
of the hurricane was falling throughout the day while the Hurricane
Hunters sampled the storm, with the last aircraft pass showing the
central pressure had fallen to around 946 mb. The latest objective
(ADT/AiDT) and subjective (TAFB/SAB) satellite intensity estimates
still support an intensity between 125 to 130 kt, which lies in
between the earlier reduced flight-level winds and SFMR retrievals
from the aircraft. Thus, the initial intensity of Beryl is held at
130 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward
(290/18-kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. A fast west-northwestward to westward motion is
expected over the next several days, bringing the center of the
hurricane across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The
latest track guidance has shifted a bit northward this cycle, with
some global models including the GFS and ECMWF showing a closer
approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica by midweek. The latest NHC track
forecast was adjusted in this direction, although it still lies
slightly to the south of the TVCA and HCCA aids. The official
prediction still shows Beryl emerging into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm at day 5, but the track uncertainty is
greater with more ensemble spread during this period.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again
this evening. While some intensity fluctuations are possible in the
near term, the official NHC forecast shows little intensity change
through tonight. An increase in mid-level westerly shear is still
forecast by midweek, and this should cause some weakening while
Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
However, Beryl is still forecast to remain a hurricane as it
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC intensity
prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Once
again, there is increased uncertainty later in the forecast period
regarding the extent of land interaction and vertical depth of the
cyclone once it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and emerges into the
southwestern Gulf.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, dangerous waves, and heavy rainfall
are expected to continue through this evening while the core of
Beryl pulls away from the southern Windward Islands.

2. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Warning
has been issued for the south coast of Hispaniola. Hurricane
conditions are possible in Jamaica on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.

3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula,
the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required during the next day or
two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.2N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.4N 69.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 16.3N 73.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 17.1N 77.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 17.9N 80.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.3N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19.5N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 01, 2024 6:58 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL EVEN STRONGER AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
island.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 01, 2024 9:52 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...BERYL BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 64.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Data from a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight has been quite
helpful in assessing Beryl's structure and intensity. Within the
past hour, the aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of
157 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A typical 90 percent reduction
translates to a maximum sustained wind of 140 kt, which makes Beryl
a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. This is the
earliest Category 5 hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin on
record, and only the second Category 5 hurricane to occur in July
after Hurricane Emily in 2005.

Beryl continues to move quickly to the west-northwest, even a bit
faster than earlier, estimated from plane fixes to be 290/19 kt. A
well-established subtropical ridge oriented ESE-to-WNW of Beryl is
expected to continue to steer the small but potent hurricane quickly
west-northwestward into the central Caribbean over the next several
days. After 48 hours, the strongest ridging becomes positioned more
NW of Beryl, and the storm could turn a bit more westward and
gradually slow down when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean. The
guidance this cycle has nudged a bit further north this cycle, and
thus the NHC forecast track has also been shifted in that direction,
roughly between the reliable HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. After 72
hours, model track spread increases quite markedly, especially after
Beryl emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and forecast confidence in
the track at the end of the forecast is rather low.

While I cannot rule out a bit more intensification in the
short-term, dropsonde pressure observations between fixes in Beryl's
eye have remained steady at 938 mb. It is also possible another
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) could begin like we saw last night,
with UW-CIMSS MPERC model giving another ERC a 50-75 percent
probability based on the last few microwave passes. With that said,
after the next 24 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF remain insistent
that significant mid-level westerly shear (above 30 kt) will begin
to undercut Beryl's outflow layer. The HAFS-A/B regional-hurricane
models, which did a good job predicting Beryl's peak intensity
today, are also insistent this shear will start to disrupt the
hurricane after the next 24 hours. There is evidence of this less
favorable upper-level pattern on GOES-16 water vapor imagery upwind
of Beryl's track, and thus a faster rate of weakening is forecasted
from 36-72 hours. There remains much uncertainty of what Beryl's
structure or intensity will be as it approaches or crosses the
Yucatan, but the current GFS and ECMWF upper-level pattern in the
Gulf of Mexico does not look especially favorable for
restrengthening at the end of the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is now
in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible over portions of
Jamaica on Wednesday.

3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula,
the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required on Tuesday or
Wednesday.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 13.8N 64.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.8N 67.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 15.9N 71.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.8N 75.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 17.7N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 18.2N 82.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 18.6N 85.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 20.5N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/0000Z 22.5N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 02, 2024 4:29 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 66.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch
for all of the Cayman Islands.




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

Beryl remains an impressive category 5 hurricane this morning.
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined eye, expanding outflow,
and a prominent outer band. Overnight NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data showed the minimum central pressure falling to about
935 mb, and the Tail Doppler Radar measured 170 kt of wind at about
500 m. This supports the initial intensity of 145 kt for this
advisory.

The hurricane is moving quickly to west-northwest at an estimated
290/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern
United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to
westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next
few days. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the
north and lies closest to the corrected consensus aid. There is
still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 h, with
the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the
Gulf of Mexico.

Beryl's intensity forecast is also rather uncertain. Model guidance
all indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today
as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. Later
on, factors such as the possible interaction with the Jamaican
elevated terrain, dry air intrusions, and the structure of the
vertical wind shear will all play a role in the rate of weakening.
The models show quite a wide range of solutions, with guidance
between a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane while it nears
the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the
aids, showing Beryl as a major hurricane near Jamaica, reaching
Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 h before emerging as a tropical
storm over the Gulf of Mexico. This is quite an uncertain forecast
beyond a couple of days due to the aforementioned factors.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all
of the Cayman Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica
on Wednesday.

3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today
or Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 14.6N 66.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 16.5N 73.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.4N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.2N 80.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 19.3N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:54 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 67.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:44 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 68.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the south coast of Haiti
from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault.



Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
along with satellite imagery, suggest that Beryl peaked in
intensity around 10-12Z. Since then, the aircraft data show
that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 938 mb and that
the maximum flight-level winds have decreased a little. In addition,
satellite imagery indicates some decay in the cloud pattern. Based
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt.

The initial motion is a quick 285/19 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in 24-36 h and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico around 72 h. After that, there is a significant
spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the
strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the
southern United States. Thus, there remains considerable
uncertainty in the track forecast during the latter part of the
forecast period.

The intensity forecast also remains uncertain. There is general
agreement in the guidance that Beryl should weaken due to westerly
shear and possible land interaction as it approaches Jamaica.
However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks
somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the
hurricane. The new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a
major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica and still be a hurricane
when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and this portion of the
forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. There
is considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges
over the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to uncertainties as to how long
the storm will remain over water and partly due to uncertainties in
how the cyclone will interact with an upper-level trough to the
west. This part of the forecast lies in the middle of the
spread-out intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for all
of the Cayman Islands and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica
and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.

3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today
or Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 15.3N 68.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.2N 71.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.0N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1200Z 24.0N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 02, 2024 2:14 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...EYE OF BERYL PASSING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 69.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 02, 2024 3:44 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

...EYE OF BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 70.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since
the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z. While
the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged
and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the
overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear.
Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has
weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity
will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft
missions near 00Z.

The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman
Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
around 60-72 h. After that, there remains a significant spread in
the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and
location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern
United States. The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this
time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion.
This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the
consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty.

The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain. The models
are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the
next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models
show a slower rate of weakening than previously. Based on this,
the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major
hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane
strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a
hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the
forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There
remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better
agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the
Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle
of the spread-out intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night. Residents in these
areas should listen to local government and emergency management
officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely
over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday where additional watches
will likely be required later today or tonight.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 70.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 24.5N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:03 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 71.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
south of Chetumal to Belize City.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:51 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 72.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES



Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Beryl this evening. Data from the aircraft suggest
that Beryl hasn't weakened very much so far. Flight-level winds
indicate that the intensity is still near 130 kt. Satellite-
derived intensity estimates are below this value, and the
eye has become a little less well-defined on the imagery.

The rapid west-northwestward motion continues, at around 290/19 kt.
A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Beryl should continue to
steer the system on a west-northwestward heading across the central
and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days. This motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in 12 to 24 hours, near the
Cayman Islands in 24 to 36 hours, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico in 48 to 60 hours. Beyond 72 hours, when Beryl should be
located over the western Gulf of Mexico, the track model spread
increases. Therefore there is significant uncertainty in the 4-
and 5-day forecast points, when the system encounters a weakness in
the ridge.

There is also considerable uncertainty in the future intensity of
Beryl. Vertical shear, associated with an upper-level low near the
Yucatan Channel, should increase over Beryl during the next day
or so. Therefore some weakening seems likely during the next 48
hours. However, the system should maintain hurricane strength
while it moves over the northwestern Caribbean. Later in the
forecast period, when Beryl moves over the western Gulf of Mexico,
it is not clear how much the cyclone will re-intensify, but it
should at least be close to hurricane intensity around that time.
The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night. Residents in these
areas should listen to local government and emergency management
officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely
over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 16.2N 72.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 20.1N 88.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 22.7N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON COAST

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 03, 2024 4:00 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO IMPACT JAMAICA
MIDDAY BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 74.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES





Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Beryl appears to be experiencing the effects of moderate
northwesterly shear. The eye has become cloud-filled, and the
hurricane's cloud pattern is elongated northeast to southwest.
Still, very deep convection is present in the eyewall and the core
of the hurricane remains intact. Data from an earlier Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft had maximum flight-level winds of 136 kt
and a slightly higher minimum central pressure than the previous
advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 125 kt,
pending data from the next set of reconnaissance aircraft.

The intensity forecast remains rather challenging. The uncertainty
starts right away due to noticeable discrepancies in the short-term
evolution of the upper-level flow in the global models. The ECMWF
global model predicts strong westerly flow from an upper-level
trough that would significantly increase the shear over Beryl in the
next 24 h and result in rapid weakening. However, the GFS model
shows a very different upper-level wind pattern that would result in
only moderate vertical wind shear near Beryl and thus, less
weakening. The official forecast shows a blend of these solutions
and general weakening through 48 h. It should be emphasized that
Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near
Jamaica in the next 12 h, the Cayman Islands early on Thursday, and
the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. As Beryl emerges over the warm
waters of the Gulf Mexico in about 72 h, an upper-level ridge is
forecast to build closer to the storm, and more numerical model
guidance is showing restrengthening. The official forecast now
shows Beryl becoming a hurricane before making landfall along the
western coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and lies a bit below the model
consensus.

The hurricane has continued its rapid pace across the central
Caribbean at around 285/17 kt. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The core of the hurricane should pass near or
just south of Jamaica later today, with little change to the
forecast near Yucatan. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the storm should
turn northwestward as a trough moving over the central US weakens
the ridge over the weekend. There is still significant uncertainty
in the long-term track forecast, as numerical models showing
stronger storms in the Gulf of Mexico are generally on the northern
side of the guidance envelope and weaker storms on the southern
side. The NHC track forecast lies in the middle of the guidance
envelope, near the multi-model consensus aids and is very similar to
the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica beginning
this afternoon and in the Cayman Islands early on Thursday.
Residents in these areas should listen to local government and
emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation
orders.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 16.6N 74.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.3N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 19.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 20.1N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z 21.1N 91.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 25.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 03, 2024 6:56 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JAMAICA BY
MIDDAY TODAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:52 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 76.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Puerto Costa Maya to
Cancun.

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal, and north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche.

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula west of Cabo Catoche
to Campeche.




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye
has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern
has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb.
However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt
at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb.
These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/16. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman
Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable
amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF
showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the
ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of
Mexico. This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus
models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are
no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory.

While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will
encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects
enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening. The official
forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance
envelope. Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly
re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable
environment. The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to
regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast,
followed by weakening after landfall.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to begin in Jamaica within the next
few hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous
locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind
gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning
Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions
of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the
progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 17.1N 76.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 18.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0000Z 20.5N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 21.5N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 25.5N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 03, 2024 1:16 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO JAMAICA AS THE EYE OF
BERYL APPROACHES...
...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 76.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 03, 2024 3:48 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...EYEWALL OF BERYL BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING...
...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 77.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES





Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

While westerly shear continues to affect Beryl, the central core of
the hurricane has made a bit of a comeback this afternoon with the
eye becoming better defined in Cuban radar data and re-appearing in
satellite imagery. Whether this has resulted in any
re-intensification is unclear, so the initial intensity will be
held at 120 kt pending the arrival of the next reconnaissance
aircraft. The Cuban radar data shows that northern eyewall is
brushing the southern coast of Jamaica at this time, with hurricane
conditions occurring mainly on the south side of the island.

The initial motion is now 285/17. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next few hours and south of the
Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, Beryl
should turn northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge
caused by a large mid-latitude trough over the central United
States. There is a bit better agreement in the track guidance this
cycle, as the GFS has shifted its track a little southward and the
ECMWF has shifted its track a little northward. Based on this and
other guidance, the 96- and 120-h points have been shifted a
little to the southwest of the previous forecast. However, there
is still uncertainty during this part of the forecast, and a
landfall in Texas cannot yet be ruled out.

Beryl should continue to experience some westerly shear for the
next 24 h, and the ECMWF forecasts moderate shear to persist until
the hurricane makes landfall in Yucatan. This portion of the
intensity forecast calls for weakening as shown by the guidance.
However, given that Beryl seems reluctant to weaken, the forecast
is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The cyclone
should weaken to a tropical storm while crossing Yucatan. The
intensity guidance has become less enthusiastic about the potential
for Beryl to re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the
model forecast upper-level winds seem generally favorable, and
based on this the intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to
re-gain hurricane strength over the Gulf.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica over the next
several hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight.
Mountainous locations in Jamaica are likely to experience
destructive wind gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a
hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should
monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 77.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 19.2N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.9N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0600Z 20.9N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 93.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 96.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.0N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 03, 2024 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MOVING NEAR
SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 78.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:45 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BERYL PULLING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...
...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES





Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

The core of Beryl has now passed through Jamaica and is approaching
the Cayman Islands. Satellite images indicate that the eye has
become cloud filled, and reports from both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the eyewall is open on the southwest
side. Despite the degraded structure, a blend of the NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance data indicates that Beryl is still an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane with an initial intensity of 115 kt.
The crews on board also reported that there was significant
turbulence in the northern eyewall. NOAA's P-3 Tail Doppler Radar
data does suggest that there is some vertical tilt to the vortex,
likely due to moderate westerly vertical wind shear.

The center of Beryl is a little to the north of the previous track,
and the latest initial motion estimate is 295/16 kt. A ridge
centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to turn more
westward during the next couple of days, taking the core of the
major hurricane just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and
across the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. The
ridge is expected to weaken late Friday, which should cause Beryl to
slow down and gain more latitude this weekend as it moves toward a
trough over the south-central U.S. The models are tightly
clustered through the Yucatan landfall, and given the pronounced
steering currents through that time, the NHC track forecast is of
high confidence. However, the spread in the models increase by the
time Beryl nears eastern Mexico and southern Texas and accordingly,
confidence in the details of the track forecast are low at long
range. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the north of the
previous one and very near the various consensus aids.

Beryl is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly
shear, and the models suggest that the shear will either hold
steady or increase a little during the next couple of days. These
less favorable winds aloft combined with some intrusions of dry air
should cause weakening, but Beryl is still expected to be a
powerful hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan. The
interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan should cause rapid
weakening, but gradual re-intensification is expected when Beryl
moves over the western Gulf of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model
guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica for a few
more hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous
locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind
gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica overnight.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a
hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
eastern Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of
Beryl. Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause
life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and
continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 18.0N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.5N 81.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 19.1N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 19.8N 87.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 20.7N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1200Z 21.7N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 07/0000Z 22.8N 94.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 24.6N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 26.7N 98.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen
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