ATL: BERYL - Advisories

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:56 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 80.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:57 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...WEATHER DETERIORATING IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH STRONG WINDS,
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED THERE LATER THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 81.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to have a large area
of strong convection near the center, although the overall cloud
pattern has become less symmetric. This matches the radar imagery
from Grand Cayman which shows a well-defined eyewall on the
northern side but remains open on the southern side. There isn't
much reason to believe that the gradual filling seen in the last
aircraft mission has stopped, and the initial wind speed is set to
105 kt, a bit lower than what the last aircraft data supported.
The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters should be in the cyclone
within a few hours for a better intensity estimate.

Beryl appears to be moving west-northwestward or 285/17 kt.
Overall, there are no significant changes to the track forecast. A
large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl
to move westward or west-northwestward during the next couple of
days. Model guidance is tightly clustered on a course toward the
Yucatan Peninsula early Friday and emerging into the southern Gulf
of Mexico early Saturday. The western periphery of the ridge is
forecast to weaken due to a series of shortwaves moving over the
Central Plains, causing Beryl to slow down and turn northwestward
this weekend. While there isn't an atypical amount of track spread
by the time Beryl impacts the western Gulf Coast early next week,
the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles, so it is too early to
pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new NHC
forecast is close to the model consensus and the previous forecast.

Water vapor images show a upper-level trough moving west-
southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, helping to impart
moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl. While the hurricane has been
an over-performer so far, this magnitude of shear should cause
notable weakening over the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to
still be a hurricane near the Yucatan tomorrow. After emerging into
the Gulf of Mexico, Beryl will likely have a couple of days to
re-strengthen over warm waters with light or moderate shear. Almost
all of the model guidance show the system near hurricane strength as
Beryl approaches the western Gulf Coast, and so does the official
forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the
previous one, but should be considered of low confidence due to the
inherent uncertainties of intensity forecasts in moderate shear.

Key Messages:

1. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, damaging waves, and areas of
flooding are expected to occur in the Cayman Islands today where a
Hurricane Warning remains in effect.

2. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

3. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
eastern Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of
Beryl. Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause
life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and
continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 18.5N 81.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.0N 83.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1800Z 22.3N 93.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 23.3N 95.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 25.2N 97.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H 09/0600Z 27.0N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:00 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL PASSING SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 81.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:47 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES






Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Beryl continues to weaken due to the effects of westerly shear.
Radar data from the Cayman Islands shows that the eyewall is open
to the south and that there is very little precipitation occurring
in the southwestern semicircle. This matches the asymmetric cloud
pattern seen in satellite imagery. Data from the NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters support surface winds of 90-100 kt,
and that the central pressure has risen to near 971 mb. Based on
this, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 100
kt. The initial wind radii have be modified downward based on the
aircraft data.

The initial motion is 285/16. There is little change in either the
track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous
advisory. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should
cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next
day or two, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a
landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula just before 24 h and emerging into
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico just after 36 h. After that, Beryl
should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United
States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes
landfall on the western Gulf coast near 96 h. While the guidance
has come into better agreement, there is a spread in the guidance
landfall points from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast,
and users are reminded that the average error at day 4 is about 150
miles. Thus, it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region
for the worst hazards. The new official forecast is similar to, but
a touch slower than, the previous forecast and it lies close to the
consensus models.

Water vapor imagery continues to show a upper-level trough moving
west-southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with
westerly flow on the south side of this system helping to impart
moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl. While the shear could
decrease some during the next 24 h, it is unlikely to decrease
enough to stop Beryl from steadily weakening until landfall on the
Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the new intensity forecast follows
the trend of the intensity guidance. Beryl should weaken more
after landfall. There is uncertainty in how much shear the cyclone
may encounter over the Gulf of Mexico, but the guidance shows slow
intensification during that time. This is reflected in the new
intensity forecast that brings the system back to hurricane strength
right at landfall on the western Gulf coast.


Key Messages:

1. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, damaging waves, and areas of
flooding are occurring in the Cayman Islands where a Hurricane
Warning remains in effect.

2. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning
tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of that area.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
later this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast.

4. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.0N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 19.5N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 20.1N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 22.0N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/0000Z 23.0N 94.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 23.9N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 25.5N 97.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 28.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2024 12:51 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 83.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:48 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL HEADING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that left the storm
around 17Z reported that the central pressure had risen to near 974
mb, and also reported flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an
intensity of 95 kt. Since that time, as happened yesterday
afternoon, despite the ongoing shear the eye has become better
defined in both satellite imagery and in radar data from Grand
Cayman and Cuba. Given this increase in central core organization,
the initial intensity will be held at 95 kt pending the arrival of
the next aircraft near 00Z. Satellite imagery also shows that the
outflow has become better defined in the northeastern semicircle.

The initial motion is 285/17, although the last several satellite
images suggest a westward wobble is in progress. There is again
little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track
forecast from the previous advisory. A large ridge centered over
the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or
west-northwestward during the next day or so, with the model
guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan
Peninsula in 12-18 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico at around 30 h. After that, Beryl should turn northwest
toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a
mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general
motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the
western Gulf coast between 72-96 h. There is still some spread in
the track guidance regarding a landfall location, with the range of
possibilities from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast.
Users are reminded that the average track forecast error at day 3
is about 100 miles and at day 4 is about 150 miles, and so it is
still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards.
The new official forecast is a little north of the previous
forecast through 24 h and similar to the previous forecast after
that.

It is unclear whether the current developments with the hurricane
core and outflow are temporary or a sign that the westerly shear
has somewhat abated. The intensity forecast follows the premise
that the shear has not fully abated and that Beryl will weaken
before landfall. However, even the intensity guidance that
forecasts weakening keeps Beryl at hurricane strength at landfall
on the Yucatan Peninsula. Additional weakening should occur while
the center is over land. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the guidance
does not forecast a lot of strengthening, but conditions appear
generally favorable and the intensity forecast continues to show
Beryl at hurricane strength before landfall on the western Gulf
coast. It should be noted that the dynamical models suggest that
the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last
12-18 hr before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to
intensify before that time.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning
tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of that area.

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
later this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast.

3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.5N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 86.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 21.6N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 06/1800Z 22.6N 93.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...BERYL APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES
EXPECTED THERE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#48 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:41 pm

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
930 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

Data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beryl
has strengthened to a category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of
115 mph (185 km/h). The aircraft data also indicated that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 962 mb.

The next forecast will be issued at the normally scheduled time at
11 PM EDT (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 930 PM AST...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 85.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#49 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:50 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES
EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 85.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

The weakening trend of Beryl has reversed this evening. Satellite
images show that the eye has occasionally been evident and the
eyewall is about two-thirds closed based on Cancun radar images and
reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Data from the
reconnaissance mission indicated that Beryl has strengthened back to
a dangerous category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of about 100 kt.
The minimum pressure has fallen about 10 mb from this afternoon to
964 mb. The aircraft also indicated that Beryl remains compact, and
it is actually a little smaller than previously estimated.

The hurricane has turned westward and slowed down slightly on the
south side of a ridge centered over the southeastern U.S., with the
latest initial motion estimated to be 275/14 kt. Beryl is expected
to maintain that general motion during the next 12 hours, which
should cause it to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula very near
Tulum early Friday morning. Most of the models show the center
remaining over land for about 18 hours, and then emerging over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. Around that time, Beryl
is expected to turn to the northwest and slow down some more as it
moves along the western periphery of the weakening ridge and toward
a trough over the south-central U.S. Although the models are in
fair agreement, there is still some spread in exactly how sharp the
system turns northwestward, and to a large degree the structure and
intensity of Beryl will be a notable factor on its track over the
Gulf. The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the
previous one, following the trend in the latest models.

It now seems likely that Beryl will maintain its strength until it
reaches the coast. Once the core moves inland, rapid weakening is
expected, and Beryl is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by
the time it exits the Yucatan. Assuming the system is able to
maintain some elements of an inner core, gradual re-intensification
seems likely before it makes its final landfall in northeastern
Mexico or southern Texas. The NHC intensity forecast again lies
near the high end of the models and continues to show Beryl becoming
a hurricane again over the western Gulf.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, so it is too soon to pinpoint where the largest
impacts will be.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are forecast to begin within the next few hours across the Yucatan
Peninsula within the hurricane warning area. Residents there should
shelter in place through the passage of these life-threatening
conditions.

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
late this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued on Friday.

3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 19.6N 85.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 20.0N 87.5W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0000Z 20.9N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1200Z 21.9N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/0000Z 22.9N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 23.8N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 24.7N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 26.8N 98.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 28.9N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:49 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...HURRICANE BERYL CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS BERYL MOVES ASHORE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 86.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES






Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Beryl is nearing landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula this morning.
After unexpectedly intensifying some last night against continued
shear, Beryl has plateaued or filled a bit. The last few fixes from
the Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission indicated the pressure
rose 9 mb while the peak 700-mb wind in the final NE leg out of
Beryl were down to 102 kt with lower SFMR values. In addition, the
aircraft was no longer reporting an eyewall and the presentation of
Beryl's inner core from radar out of Cancun, Mexico has become more
degraded. On satellite, the hurricane has also become more
amorphous, with a lack of an eye signature on infrared imagery, and
evidence of southerly shear continuing to undercut its outflow. The
initial intensity this advisory was adjusted to 95 kt, which is
still higher than the satellite intensity estimates, out of respect
of the earlier recon data.

The hurricane appears to now be moving more west-northwestward this
morning, estimated at 285/13 kt. Beryl should maintain this
west-northwest heading as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today and
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Thereafter, the
subtropical ridge north of Beryl that has been steering it for many
days now will become eroded in the western Gulf of Mexico from a
long-wave trough located over the Central U.S. In addition, an
upper-level low seen retrograding westward in the Gulf of Mexico
could also impart more poleward steering in the western Gulf of
Mexico. How sharply Beryl turns poleward from 36-72 h will likely
depend on the storm's vertical depth, with a more vertically deep
system more likely to feel the ridge weakness and upper-level flow.
In fact, that scenario has been highlighted by the last few cycles
of the ECMWF ensembles which show stronger solutions on the north
side of the track envelope. The overall guidance this cycle has also
made a notable shift northward and is a bit slower than earlier, and
the NHC forecast track has been shifted in that direction, quite
close to the consensus aid TVCN. However, it is not quite as far
north as the latest ECMWF or GFS tracks, and further adjustments in
that direction may be necessary later today.

The intensity forecast for the next 24 hours is straightforward, as
the small core of Beryl should quickly weaken over the Yucatan after
it moves inland, likely into a tropical storm before it emerges over
the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is after this period where the
intensity forecast becomes more tricky. It will likely take a bit of
time for Beryl's convective structure to recover in the Gulf of
Mexico, and initially there will still be some residual southerly
shear. However, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows
shear dropping under 10 kt after 48 hours, while the storm traverses
29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Such an environment should favor
strengthening, and the raw model output from the GFS and ECMWF
suggests significant deepening as Beryl approaches the coastline of
northeastern Mexico and south Texas. Somewhat surprisingly, the
hurricane-regional models are more subdued and suggest less
intensification this cycle, but these models have been oscillating
between stronger and weaker solutions. The latest NHC intensity
forecast will show a bit more intensification than the prior
advisory, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance, but
more in line with the expected favorable environment as Beryl
approaches landfall.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
largest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of
northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later
today.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are beginning to occur across the Yucatan Peninsula within the
hurricane warning area. Residents there should shelter in place
through the passage of these life-threatening conditions today.

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
late this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today.

3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 86.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.7N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 21.7N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 22.9N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.8N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.7N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#51 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:02 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES
EXPECTED IN THE LANDFALL AREA THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 87.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#52 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:52 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...BERYL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico just northeast of Tulum at about 11Z. The landfall intensity
is somewhat uncertain, but surface observations suggest the central
pressure rose into the 977-980 mb range before landfall. The
cyclone is now weakening as it moves farther inland, and the
initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/14 kt. For the next 24 h or so,
Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the
western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern
United States. After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely
as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a
combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the
central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should bring the
center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h. Subsequently, a
northward motion through the break appears likely. While the track
guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty
based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl. A
stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering
from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and
thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system
would probably continue more northwestward. Overall the guidance
favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the
right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the
right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the
forecast track could be necessary later today.

Beryl should continue to weaken while over land, and it is expected
to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. After that,
it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over
the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification can begin in earnest.
Based on this and the overall trends of the intensity guidance, the
new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start after 24 h
and continue until landfall. One important note is that the GFS
and ECMWF suggest that ongoing westerly shear could decrease after
48-60 h, accompanied by an increase in upper-level divergence.
Should this occur, Beryl could strengthen more than currently
forecast, especially if the center stays over water longer than
forecast.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of
northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later
today.


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue
over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula within the warning areas
today. Residents there should shelter in place until these
life-threatening conditions subside.

2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane-force winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and flooding from heavy rainfall in
portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast
late Sunday and Monday. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast. Storm Surge, Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the
advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the
water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 20.7N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 21.4N 90.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.6N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.6N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.6N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 26.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 09/1200Z 29.0N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 31.0N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#53 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:52 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...BERYL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 88.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#54 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN GULF COAST...
...CENTER OF BERYL EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 89.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Texas coast from the
mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Texas coast from the
mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent.

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to
the mouth of the Rio Grande.



Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Beryl has weakened below hurricane strength while crossing the
northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows
that the cloud tops in the central convection have warmed except
for one small area just northeast of the center, and radar data
from Cancun shows that the rainbands near the center have become
less organized. The initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat
uncertain 55 kt, as there is little in the way of wind data from the
inner core.

The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge
over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory,
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

Beryl will likely weaken a little more before the center emerges
over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. After that, it could take
12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over the Gulf of
Mexico before re-intensification begins in earnest, and during
this time the large-scale models suggest continued southwesterly
shear. Based on this and the overall trend of the intensity
guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start
around 24 h, and the first part of this forecast could be a bit
generous. However, the upper-level winds become more favorable as
the cyclone approaches the western Gulf coast after 36 h, with
decreasing shear and increasing upper-level divergence. This
combination should allow a faster rate of strengthening. The new
intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in
best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this
could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than
currently forecast.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday where
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued. Additional
watches may be required tonight or early Saturday. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.

4. Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue over
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 21.2N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1800Z 23.2N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 95.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 26.5N 96.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 27.8N 97.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...AT COAST
96H 09/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1800Z 32.5N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#55 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL ABOUT TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 89.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#56 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:45 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...BERYL NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO..
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 90.2W
ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula.

The Hurricane Watch in Texas has been extended eastward to San Luis
Pass.

The Storm Surge Watch in Texas has been extended eastward to High
Island.





Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico
just northwest of Progreso in the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface
observations and NOAA aircraft Tail Doppler Radar data indicate
that the storm has become significantly titled with the low-level
center located to the southwest of the mid-level vortex, with most
of the showers and thunderstorms located closer to the mid-level
center. The latest flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support lowering the initial intensity to
50 kt. The minimum pressure is now up to 996 mb.

Beryl has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt as the
system remains steered by a mid-level ridge located over the
southeastern U.S. This motion should continue through early
Saturday, After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed is predicted as Beryl moves toward a
weakness in the ridge caused by a trough over the south-central U.S.
The models show a shortwave trough reinforcing the weakness late in
the weekend, which could cause a turn more toward the north just
before Beryl makes landfall. The latest guidance has again shifted
to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The new
track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction,
which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.

Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage
over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to
recover. However, the overall environmental conditions are
conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and
decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track. In
addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind
pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the
coast, which could aid in the intensification process. Although the
global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the
maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the
environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show
significant decreases in the system's minimum pressure over the next
couple of days. Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day
or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes
landfall. This forecast is similar to the previous one.

Based on the latest forecast, the Hurricane Watch has been extended
eastward along the Texas coast. It is important to note that the
average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles and the
average intensity error is close to one category. Users are
reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast
information.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday, where
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches
and warnings may be required on Saturday. Interests in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.7N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.9N 93.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 25.0N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 26.2N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 27.6N 96.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 29.2N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 31.8N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 33.9N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#57 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:48 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

...BERYL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS WEEKEND...
...EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE NEAR LANDFALL IN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 91.3W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES




Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Beryl's structure this morning is a shadow of its former self in the
Caribbean, with the low-level center partially exposed and displaced
south of the best mid-level rotation and deep convection. The final
couple of Air Force Hurricane Hunter fixes indicated the pressure
was rising, though the aircraft did also observe 850-mb flight level
winds of 65 kt, which still supports maintaining an initial
intensity of 50 kt. This value is between the Dvorak intensity
estimates provided by TAFB and SAB. Beryl's wind radii were adjusted
some from to a combination of aircraft, scatterometer, and synthetic
aperture radar wind data.

Beryl is currently estimated to be moving west-northwest at
300/10-kt. Soon, the tropical storm is expected to turn more
northwestward and gradually slow down as the steering currents
evolve due to both a weakness developing in the subtropical ridge to
the north, in addition to an upper-level low positioned west of
Beryl also imparting more poleward steering. After the significant
rightward shifts in the track guidance over the past day or so, the
latest cycle has come into better agreement very near the previous
NHC forecast track. In fact, the latest forecast track is very close
to the prior forecast, roughly between the latest GFS and ECMWF
forecasts. This track also splits the difference between the
reliable TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. However, it should be noted
that there still remains a fair amount of across-track spread in the
latest ECMWF ensemble guidance at the time Beryl is forecast to make
landfall in Texas on Monday.

The poor structure of the tropical storm this morning does not favor
much intensification in the short-term, and I suspect it will take
another day or so for convection to reorganize around the inner core
of Beryl. This process could also be slowed by a decent amount of
dry air in the southern Gulf of Mexico being imported into Beryl's
circulation by about 20 kt of southerly wind shear. However, this
wind shear decreases to under 10 kt per SHIPS guidance after 24
hours as Beryl moves into very warm 29-30 C sea-surface
temperatures. The upper-level low currently inducing the southerly
shear will also become positioned farther southwest of Beryl, in a
quadrant more favorable for TC intensification. Thus, strengthening
is expected to begin on Sunday with the rate of intensification
likely to increase in the final 24 hours before landfall, in
agreement with the most favorable conditions being prescribed by the
GFS and ECMWF models. The intensity forecast remains on the high
side of the guidance envelope, but is also similar to the prior
forecast and shows Beryl becoming a hurricane before reaching the
Texas coast on Monday.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 60 hours
is about 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to one
category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties when
using the forecast information.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the Texas Coast late Sunday into Monday, where Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches and warnings may be
required later today. Interests in these areas should follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable in nature, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf
Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through midweek.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 22.2N 91.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.3N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 24.4N 94.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 25.6N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 27.0N 96.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 28.5N 96.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...ON THE COAST
72H 09/0600Z 30.3N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0600Z 32.9N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 11/0600Z 35.5N 90.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:52 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL...
...EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE NEAR LANDFALL IN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 91.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 06, 2024 9:52 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF
COAST...
...BERYL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE NEAR LANDFALL IN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 92.3W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast south
of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande. The Meteorological
Service of Mexico has also discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the
northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to
the mouth of the Rio Grande.





Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Recently, a convective burst has developed near the center of Beryl
in the northwestern quadrant, and the low-level center is for the
moment no longer exposed. Tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA
aircraft suggests that the cyclone has become better aligned
vertically during the past few hours, likely due to the effects of
this burst. Reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the central pressure is now near 997 mb,
with the Air Force plane reporting severe turbulence in the
convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt for this advisory
based on the flight-level and SFMR wind data from the two aircraft.

The initial motion is 300/10 kt. Water vapor imagery shows a
developing mid-latitude trough over the central United States that
is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over Texas. Beryl is
expected to turn northwest later today, then turn northward by
48-60 h into the break, with the center making landfall on the
Texas coast. Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently expected
after 72 h. The forecast guidance has not changed much since the
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is basically an update
of the previous track. The new track lies between the main
consensus models and the HCCA corrected consensus model.

Beryl remains in an area of about 15 kt of southerly vertical
shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air
over the southern semicircle of the cyclone. This combination
suggests the possibility that the current convective burst will
weaken later today. After 24 h, the shear is forecast to diminish,
and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that significant
strengthening should occur. Based on this, the intensity forecast
shows only modest strengthening during the first 24 h, followed by
intensification to hurricane strength before landfall in Texas.
The peak intensity is based on the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A and HAFS-B
guidance. After landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with
the system forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure area by
120 h.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 48
hours is about 70 miles and the average intensity error is close to
one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge along portions of the lower and middle
Texas coast late Sunday into Monday, where Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches are in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for
portions of deep south Texas and additional warnings will likely be
required later today. Interests in these areas should follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 23.0N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.7N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.9N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 26.2N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 27.7N 96.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 29.3N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 30.9N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 11/1200Z 36.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#60 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:59 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS BERYL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 92.7W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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