ATL: JOYCE - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 98, 2024092506, , BEST, 0, 145N, 314W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026, SPAWNINVEST, al782024 to al982024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982024.dat

[ElectricStorm]

This will probably be the next named storm unless 99L pulls a fast one and takes it. Either way we should finally avoid the I curse this year unless this somehow flops...

Hoping for a nice open Atlantic hurricane but this part of the basin hasn't exactly been very favorable this year

[ChrisH-UK]

98L has plenty of convection with it looks like it will become a tropical storm before it recurves around the Azores high.

[ChrisH-UK]

98L this morning showing good amount of spinning up but there is a lot of dust been dragged out in it's wake that my effect it's development and for the rest of the atlantic.

Source - https://col.st/pWQoH

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad low pressure system associated with a tropical wave located
west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward
to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[CrazyC83]

If it runs the length of the Atlantic, that trough that will eventually catch up with the long-stalled Helene could become a major player down the road...

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized over
the past 24 hours in association with a broad low pressure system
along a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Teban54]

98L may have felt the need to hurry up, now that 99L stole the name Isaac from it.

[CrazyC83]

At least out there NHC can be conservative in naming. But it looks like Joyce won't be far behind.

[HurricaneEnzo]

By the looks of it I'm guessing we get a TD or TS Joyce sometime this morning. Could be 3 systems going at once. Not too shabby.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looking at 98L this morning and well looks it has developed well overnight. Good circulation, convection over it and little signs of shear. Yep this could be Joyce

Source - https://col.st/zzAdN

[WaveBreaking]

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become more organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form as soon as
later today while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward
near 15 mph today and tomorrow. The system is then forecast to
slow down and turn northward late Friday and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looking good like a TD.

[cycloneye]

We may have the TD as soon as 5 PM if organization trends continue.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization. Recent satellite imagery
suggests the system does not yet have a well-defined surface
circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for further development. A tropical depression is
expected to form later today or tomorrow while the disturbance
moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The
system is then forecast to slow down and turn northward late Friday
and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Buck]

Looking pretty good. I’m expecting a TD at 5PM. The HIJ and maybe K in sequence will help us feel a little caught up to the expectations that were set with early season forecasts.

LMNOP in October maybe?

[Buck]

I guess we will wait til 2300 for a TD

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about one thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization. Recent satellite imagery
suggests the system does not yet have a well-defined surface
circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for further development. A tropical depression is
expected to form tonight or on Friday while the disturbance moves
generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The
system is then forecast to slow down and turn north-northwestward
late Friday and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Teban54]

[ChrisH-UK]

CIMSS real-time intensity product has 98L at tropical storm strength.

Soure - https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... ry_IR.html