ATL: JOYCE - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

This has likely been a TD or TS for an entire day now. I don’t know why the NHC isn’t pulling the trigger. I think there’s a real possibility they never upgrade this, what has happened with weak MDR TCs in recent years.

[Pasmorade]

This has likely been a TD or TS for an entire day now. I don’t know why the NHC isn’t pulling the trigger. I think there’s a real possibility they never upgrade this, what has happened with weak MDR TCs in recent years.

Peculiarly, this time, they haven't really given a reason, merely stating that it "continues to remain well organized."

[ChrisH-UK]

ASCAT passes have been missing it this is the closest one taken yesterday at 18:00 utc and 98L is in the middle, which isn't helping.



As for 98L now still good but it has a lot of dry dusty air to contend.

[aspen]

ASCAT passes have been missing it this is the closest one taken yesterday at 18:00 utc and 98L is in the middle, which isn't helping.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/136/cY1xkq.gif [/url]

As for 98L now still good but it has a lot of dry dusty air to contend.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9813/JN5QrG.gif [/url]

ASCAT is pretty much guaranteed to miss whenever you need it. I guess a lack of a pass is why the NHC refuses to upgrade, but even just a visual assessment suggests it’s been a TC.

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical storm with 40 knt winds in my opinion. It is amazing that there isn't advisories for it.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Agreed this has been classifiable for at least the last 24 hours. Kind of astonishing what is happening here.

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[kevin]

This is not an edge case, it's so clearly a TC. Independent of the NHC being stricter with naming recently or not, it's baffling that it hasn't been upgraded yet.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located midway in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles continues to become better organized. This disturbance is
already producing gale-force winds. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development and a tropical depression or storm
could form today while the system moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then forecast to
slow down and turn north-northwestward by this weekend. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[aspen]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located midway in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles continues to become better organized. This disturbance is
already producing gale-force winds. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development and a tropical depression or storm
could form today while the system moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then forecast to
slow down and turn north-northwestward by this weekend. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

This is getting ridiculous now. It’s been the same 90/90 “TC could form soon” text for the last day. At this rate 98L is gonna need an eye for them to upgrade it.

[cycloneye]

I think that finnaly we will have TS Joyce at 11, based on the 12z best track.

AL, 98, 2024092712, , BEST, 0, 178N, 424W, 35, 1007, LO

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Three simultaneous storms??? I thought 2024 had been canceled!

[Teban54]

I think that finnaly we will have TS Joyce at 11, based on the 12z best track.

AL, 98, 2024092712, , BEST, 0, 178N, 424W, 35, 1007, LO

Wait, doesn't this best track still say a low (LO) and not a TC, despite TS-force winds?

[Subtrop]

AL, 11, 2024092712, , BEST, 0, 178N, 424W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 50, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOYCE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026, TRANSITIONED, alB82024 to al112024,

[aspen]

AL, 11, 2024092712, , BEST, 0, 178N, 424W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 50, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOYCE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026, TRANSITIONED, alB82024 to al112024,

Rejoyce, it’s finally been named.

[AnnularCane]

This has likely been a TD or TS for an entire day now. I don’t know why the NHC isn’t pulling the trigger. I think there’s a real possibility they never upgrade this, what has happened with weak MDR TCs in recent years.

So much for that.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Three TCs at once, the first we've seen of that this season.

[PDKlikatino]

With Joyce being named, we've now got four simultaneous "J" storms across three basins! John, Jebi, Julian, and now Joyce.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Tropical Storm 11L


UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 9.1

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2024 Time : 172020 UTC
Lat : 18:18:31 N Lon : 43:16:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.1mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.9 3.0

[cycloneye]

Bumped at BT to 40kt.

AL, 11, 2024092718, , BEST, 0, 183N, 435W, 40, 1003, TS

[Sciencerocks]