ATL: JOYCE - Remnants - Discussion

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HurricaneAndre2008
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#41 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Fri Sep 27, 2024 3:57 pm

Tropical Storm 11L


UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 9.1

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2024 Time : 201020 UTC
Lat : 18:32:06 N Lon : 43:42:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.1mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.7
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#42 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Fri Sep 27, 2024 3:57 pm

510
WTNT31 KNHC 272035
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

...JOYCE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 44.0W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#43 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 27, 2024 5:33 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#44 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Sep 27, 2024 6:29 pm

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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#45 Postby zzzh » Fri Sep 27, 2024 6:42 pm

Image
45kt storm :lol:
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#46 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 27, 2024 7:23 pm

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/rSZmKFx.png
45kt storm :lol:

I guess the hurricane models weren’t wrong saying she’d try to rapidly develop a compact inner core.
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 27, 2024 7:44 pm

No change.

AL, 11, 2024092800, , BEST, 0, 187N, 444W, 45, 1003, TS
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#48 Postby Travorum » Fri Sep 27, 2024 9:29 pm

45kt, more like 60kt:

Image
Platform: RCM-3
Acquisition Date: 2024-09-27 21:00:35 UTC
Storm Name: AL112024 / JOYCE
Storm ID: AL11
Storm Center Longitude: -43.632
Storm Center Latitude: 18.194
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 36.186
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 61.71
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 56.50
RMax (nmi): 29.00 - 34.00
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#49 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 27, 2024 9:35 pm

I'd put some weight into the SAR instrument, but there is some concern about it overestimating. Still, 50 kt seems reasonable, maybe 55 kt if that is a solid inner core on microwave.
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#50 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Sep 28, 2024 12:59 am

And again. NHC refuses to up Isaac to C2 despite its gorgeous high-latitude presentation, now with Joyce, microwave showed a primitive eyewall and they hold it at 45 kt? What is going on? They didn't upgrade Ten-E to John until microwave showed an almost completely closed eyewall. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Am I the crazy one here? Genuinely losing my mind
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#51 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 28, 2024 2:17 am

weeniepatrol wrote:And again. NHC refuses to up Isaac to C2 despite its gorgeous high-latitude presentation, now with Joyce, microwave showed a primitive eyewall and they hold it at 45 kt? What is going on? They didn't upgrade Ten-E to John until microwave showed an almost completely closed eyewall. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Am I the crazy one here? Genuinely losing my mind


For what it's worth, it looks like Isaac will be upgraded to a Cat 2 next advisory. Joyce is still at 45 kt though on the Best Track.
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#52 Postby al78 » Sat Sep 28, 2024 4:46 am

The MDR curse still alive and well this season. Joyce struggling under shear in the tropical Atlantic whilst Isaac over-performs and strengthens to a cat 2 in the sub-tropics.
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#53 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Sep 28, 2024 8:01 am

Looks like Joyce's is getting sheared with the convection pushed north leave the southern half of the circulation exposed.

Image
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#54 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 28, 2024 6:10 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 28, 2024 6:13 pm



That image is from noon yesterday as there is an outage of GOES-16.
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#56 Postby Travorum » Sat Sep 28, 2024 7:49 pm

SAR pass from a few hours ago, the southern side is indeed looking weak:

Image
Platform: RCM-3
Acquisition Date: 2024-09-28 21:09:08 UTC
Storm Name: AL112024 / JOYCE
Storm ID: AL11
Storm Center Longitude: -46.304
Storm Center Latitude: 20.065
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 34.028
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 50.22
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 47.67
RMax (nmi): 112.00 - 114.00
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#57 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Sep 29, 2024 7:01 am

Joyce this morning looks like shear has made joyce pretty much naked with the convection been pushed to the north.

Image
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#58 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 29, 2024 12:58 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#59 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 30, 2024 7:51 am

Image
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Remnants - Discussion

#60 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue Oct 01, 2024 5:57 am

Looks like Joyce may not be so dead, she has convection and shear seems to of ablated.

Source - https://col.st/q6q05

Image
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