ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13008
Buoy 13008 recorded 990.2mb at 09z (this buoy records data every 1h). 09z NHC advisory had 998mb

Maybe they did not looked at the bouy data?

[cycloneye]

Up to 60kt. The bouy data there.

12L KIRK 241001 1200 15.0N 38.7W ATL 60 988

[cycloneye]

Papín is happy to get the bouy data.

We have received some fortuitous surface data from
a moored PIRATA buoy (13008) that Kirk passed close by this morning
at around 09 UTC. The buoy reported sustained tropical-storm-force
winds at 4 meters, and a concurrent minimum pressure down to 990
mb. Thus the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt with an
estimated minimum pressure a little lower at 988 mb.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane later this afternoon or evening? I say at 5 PM advisory.

[aspen]

Hurricane later this afternoon or evening? I say at 5 PM advisory.

https://i.imgur.com/FJGoDCZ.gif

Not looking great at the moment. Convection seems to just be siting on top of a partially exposed LLC, rather than deep convection rotating around the center and forming an eyewall. Until that happens, it’ll be stuck around 60-70 kt.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hurricane later this afternoon or evening? I say at 5 PM advisory.

https://i.imgur.com/FJGoDCZ.gif

Not looking great at the moment. Convection seems to just be siting on top of a partially exposed LLC, rather than deep convection rotating around the center and forming an eyewall. Until that happens, it’ll be stuck around 60-70 kt.

Was thinking the same thing. This will likely change quickly at some point, but until then, it looks pretty rough for a storm on the verge hurricane status

[WaveBreaking]

Trying to fight back against the shear

[aspen]

Hurricane later this afternoon or evening? I say at 5 PM advisory.

https://i.imgur.com/FJGoDCZ.gif

Not looking great at the moment. Convection seems to just be siting on top of a partially exposed LLC, rather than deep convection rotating around the center and forming an eyewall. Until that happens, it’ll be stuck around 60-70 kt.

Was thinking the same thing. This will likely change quickly at some point, but until then, it looks pretty rough for a storm on the verge hurricane status

If the hurricane models are correct, we should see that change starting within the next 12-24 hours. The recent bursts of convection near the center (rather than that ragged, cool convection simply sitting on top of the LLC) seem to support this timeframe.

Probably looking at a Cat 1 for most of the day tomorrow, which RI into a major taking place on Thursday into Friday, followed by shear taking its toll again on Saturday.

[WaveBreaking]

AL, 12, 2024100118, , BEST, 0, 159N, 397W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 0, 1009

[cycloneye]

Breaking News: Kirk upgraded to hurricane

AL, 12, 2024100118, , BEST, 0, 159N, 397W, 65, 986, HU

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal122024.dat

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

Whatever struggles it was having before, it seems to be quickly getting past them now. Deep CDO forming now

[WaveBreaking]

Whatever struggles it was having before, it seems to be quickly getting past them now. Deep CDO forming now

That might be a CCC pattern imo. The latest microwave image of Kirk showed a band displaced over the center, and the overshooting tops aren’t really rotating around a center either. I could be wrong tho.

[Zonacane]

So y’all are posting on S2K and are gonna pretend not to know what a pulse down phase is?

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1841220865981132919

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1841220865981132919

Maybe 2024 is not a bust after all. The season peak was just delayed by ONE MONTH. Let's see if we can reach the aux. name list in late Nov./Early Dec.

[zzzh]

Anyone has that GPM microwave image at 37 GHz? NRL is not working

[zzzh]

SSMIS images arrived and you can see the forming core.

[cheezyWXguy]

Whatever struggles it was having before, it seems to be quickly getting past them now. Deep CDO forming now

That might be a CCC pattern imo. The latest microwave image of Kirk showed a band displaced over the center, and the overshooting tops aren’t really rotating around a center either. I could be wrong tho.

https://i.imgur.com/Gm9MFsd.png

I had this initial thought as well when it first popped up, but visible loops prior to sunset did show a few overshooting tops moving from east to west, presumably in the northern eyewall. Your mw image, as well as others below it, seem to corroborate the formation of an eyewall, which doesn’t typically happen so quickly or at all in a shear-disrupted ccc pattern. So I think this is just a big persistent convective burst.