ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2024092818, , BEST, 0, 146N, 300W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, SPAWNINVEST, al722024 to al902024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902024.dat

[ElectricStorm]

Finally looks like we could get a nice ACE producer. Let's see what's it's got

[cheezyWXguy]

Kind of getting Sam 2021 vibes from this. GFS and ICON have been getting this into the same intensity ballpark

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

Is there anything that could prevent the early north turn and keep it going west towards land? I know that would be climatologically not favored in October, but you never know...

[cycloneye]

This future cyclone will move thru warm waters, so no problems about that.

[cycloneye]

Is there anything that could prevent the early north turn and keep it going west towards land? I know that would be climatologically not favored in October, but you never know...

Looks like the ridge will not be strong and may allow it to recurve. As you said, you never know how mother nature does here.

[cycloneye]

Continues to improve. TD in less than 24 hours?

[MarioProtVI]

This could really kick up the ACE on a Lorenzo/Sam level, especially if it slows down more then expected. Combine that with our other AOI and 2024 could end up with around 120-130 ACE by around October 8.

[aspen]

Continues to improve. TD in less than 24 hours?

https://i.imgur.com/Df09OP5.gif

If the GFS is right, yes, we may have a TD by this time tomorrow. Could finally be a substantial MDR system this year.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part
of next week while the system moves toward the west and then
northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Teban54]

You can argue it already looks better than Joyce:

[cycloneye]

For those that want to see how 90L is doing as GOES-16 continues with the outage, go to this new section of NRL where they have many type of images.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcweb/activ ... 0927T1800Z

[cycloneye]

According to 00z Best Track, is not moving strait west.

AL, 90, 2024092900, , BEST, 0, 138N, 312W, 25, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

2 AM:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part
of this week while the system moves toward the west and then
northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

[ChrisH-UK]

90L this morning looks pretty decent large amount of convection with out flow, it's been missed so far by ASCAT, i wonder if it will be upgraded today.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 13008 located at 15N-38W will be interesting to watch to see the pressure readings, wind direction and speeds.



https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=13008

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
early or middle part of this week while the system initially moves
westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

It keeps moving WSW according to best track.

AL, 90, 2024092912, , BEST, 0, 133N, 317W, 30, 1007, DB