ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

ASCAT has a good circulation.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1840381055947382891

[ChrisH-UK]

90L is looking better with what looks to be convection over the middle and arms starting to wrap up.

Source - https://col.st/oxTO5

[cycloneye]

90L is looking better with what looks to be convection over the middle and arms starting to wrap up.

Source - https://col.st/oxTO5

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1631/B9FXMr.gif [/url]

Looks like a TD or TS.

[TallyTracker]

This is looking like a large hurricane brewing!

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Recent satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early this
week, possibly as soon as tonight. The low will continue to move
westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Travorum]

Microwave shows structure conducive for strengthening, should be off to the races as soon as the circulation tightens up and gets aligned.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2024092918, , BEST, 0, 138N, 321W, 30, 1006, LO

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Thinking that this will named soon.

[cycloneye]

This is a cyclone.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

This is a cyclone.

https://i.imgur.com/KEVOJ4P.gif

Agreed.

[WaveBreaking]

Thinking that this will named soon.

I bet this’ll be Kirk by 11pm tonight.

[zzzh]

AL122024 - Tropical Depression TWELVE

Now a TD

[HurricaneAndre2008]

AL122024 - Tropical Depression TWELVE

Now a TD

Yep

[cycloneye]

The famous banner.

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

[ElectricStorm]

First advisory has 105kts, I think that's the highest I've ever seen from NHC on the initial advisory

[WaveBreaking]

Already looks great for a newly-designated TD

[weeniepatrol]

Indicating a major hurricane straight out of the gates.

For at least the next 2-3 days, vertical wind shear is expected to
remain low, mid-level moisture stays high, as the system remains
over 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Yet, the current large
convective envelope of the system suggests it may take a day or so
for an inner-core to become established. Thus, the initial rate of
intensification is a bit slow, a little under the guidance for the
next 24 hours, but then becomes faster and ends up near the IVCN
consensus aid by 120 h. The initial NHC intensity forecast shows
TD12 becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a major hurricane in 5 days.

This will absolutely print ACE like the fed does money. Could take us relatively close to the above-average threshold by itself.

[Travorum]

First advisory has 105kts, I think that's the highest I've ever seen from NHC on the initial advisory

I believe the initial advisory on Lee last year forecast 120kts, but I think this is the second highest. Prior to these two the highest on the initial advisory was 100kts with Sam 2021 and Tomas 2010.

[weeniepatrol]

This will absolutely print ACE like the fed does money. Could take us relatively close to the above-average threshold by itself.

Something to keep an eye on: October ACE. TD-12, if the NHC forecast verifies, will be giving us a very comfortable head start. Record ACE is just under 70..